Stoke City vs Millwall prediction
The analysis we give
In the Championship, Stoke sit 4th with 26 points gathered in 14 games. Millwall sit 13th in the table on 18 points from 14 games, 8 points adrift.
Across their last 6, Stoke took 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 9 scored and 5 conceded. In Millwall's last 6 matches the record was 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 9 conceded.
This season, 64% of Stoke matches saw both teams score and 64% went past 2.5 goals; Millwall's numbers are 50% and 79%. Stoke create 1.03 expected goals a game and concede 1.52; Millwall stand at 1.88 created and 1.32 allowed.
Our results show 4 meetings since August 2024. Of those, Millwall won 3, Stoke won 0 and 1 finished level. Most recent of those: Stoke 1-3 Millwall, played on Tuesday 21 April 2026.
Millwall winning is the outcome the model favours most, at 40%; Stoke 31%, the draw 29%. It works from 1.12 expected goals for Stoke, 1.31 for Millwall.
The score we forecast is Stoke City 0-1 Millwall. 1-1 tops the list of single exact scores at 13.7%. Within the result we lean to, 0-1 is the likeliest score.
Stoke vs Millwall stats
| Per game |  Stoke |  Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.4 / 5.6 | 7.2 / 3.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 3.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.15 / 1.25 | 1.83 / 1.30 |
| Per game | Stoke | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.57 | 1.64 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.21 | 1.71 |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 79% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 5.4 | 5.4 / 5.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| xG for / against | 1.03 / 1.52 | 1.88 / 1.32 |
| Per game | Stoke | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.71 | 1.14 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.86 | 2.14 |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.4 / 4.3 | 4.4 / 7.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| xG for / against | 1.06 / 0.91 | 1.60 / 1.32 |
| Per game | Stoke | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.50 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.75 | 0.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.8 / 3.2 | 3.2 / 6.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.2 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Stoke win | 31% | 9/4 |
| Draw | 29% | 5/2 | |
| Millwall win | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Double chance | Stoke or draw | 60% | 4/6 |
| Millwall or draw | 69% | 4/9 | |
| Draw no bet | Stoke | 44% | 13/10 |
| Millwall | 56% | 4/5 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | evens |
| No | 50% | evens | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 70% | 2/5 |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 13/10 | |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 4/5 | |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 17/5 | |
| Result and BTTS | Stoke and yes | 14% | 13/2 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Millwall and yes | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Result and goals | Stoke and over 2.5 | 16% | 5/1 |
| Millwall and over 2.5 | 22% | 18/5 | |
| Stoke and under 2.5 | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Millwall and under 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Millwall / Millwall | 24% | 16/5 |
| Stoke / Stoke | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 17% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Millwall | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Over 10.5 | 51% | 10/11 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 52% | 10/11 |
| Over 4.5 | 35% | 9/5 |
We work out a fair price by dividing 1 by our chance.
Our predicted line-ups
Stoke 3-4-3
- Johansson, Viktor.GK
- Johnson, Ben.MID
- Bombino, Luca.MID
- Graham, Luke.DEF
- Taloverov, Maksym.DEF
- Wilmot, Ben.DEF
- McGlynn, Jack.MID
- Soumaré, Djibril.MID
- Bozeník, Róbert.FWD
- Manhoef, Million.FWD
- Devenny, Justin.FWD
They started at Blackburn on Tue 3 Nov.
Millwall 4-4-2
- Crocombe, Max.GK
- Osei-Tutu, Jordi.DEF
- Sturge, Zak.DEF
- Neghli, Camiel.MID
- Taylor, Caleb.DEF
- Cooper, Jake.DEF
- Lisbie, Kyrell.MID
- Mazou-Sacko, Derek.MID
- Ivanovic, Mihailo.FWD
- Dykes, Lyndon.FWD
- Cundle, Luke.MID
Started at Birmingham on Tue 3 Nov.
Exact score chances
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 13.7 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
Sample size: Stoke, 16 games and Millwall, 17 games.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 10.9 in total, with Stoke 5.8, Millwall 5.1 and the league at 10.4.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.9 (league 3.7).
Latest form
Stoke City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Blackburn | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Preston | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Bristol City | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Derby | 1-0 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Middlesbrough | 2-3 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Bolton | 2-1 | W |
Stoke scores come first.
Millwall
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Birmingham | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Derby | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Portsmouth | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Lincoln | 2-2 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Swansea | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Preston | 1-0 | W |
Millwall scores come first.
Head to head
| Tue 21 Apr 2026 | Championship | Stoke 1-3 Millwall | 0-1 | 12 |
| Tue 21 Oct 2025 | Championship | Millwall 2-0 Stoke | 2-0 | 5 |
| Sat 15 Mar 2025 | Championship | Millwall 1-0 Stoke | 0-0 | 12 |
| Sat 9 Nov 2024 | Championship | Stoke 1-1 Millwall | 0-1 | 11 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 25 |
| 11 |  Queens Park Rangers | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +5 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich City | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 13 | Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn Rovers | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 18 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November