Stoke City vs Birmingham City prediction
Our breakdown
Stoke sit 4th in the Championship, and their 26 points in 14 games put them there Birmingham sit 3rd with 26 points from 14 games, level on points and 0 points clear
Across their last 6, Stoke recorded 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. From their last 6, Birmingham took 5 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, with 14 goals scored and 2 conceded.
So far this season, 64% of Stoke games saw both teams score and 64% had over 2.5 goals. Birmingham's figures are 57% and 71% respectively. Expected goals per game sit at 1.03 for Stoke, who allow 1.52, and 1.70 for Birmingham, who allow 1.40.
In our results since August 2024, the teams have met 2 times: Stoke won 1, while Birmingham won 0, with 1 ending level. The latest meeting ended Birmingham 1-1 Stoke on Saturday 24 January 2026.
The model gives a Birmingham win the highest chance at 39% (Stoke 32%, the draw 29%), based on 1.16 for Stoke and 1.30 for Birmingham in expected goals.
Our prediction is Stoke City 0-1 Birmingham City for this match. At 13.7%, 1-1 is the single likeliest exact score. Inside the result we lean to, the likeliest score is 0-1.
Stats: Stoke v Birmingham
| Per game |  Stoke |  Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.4 / 5.6 | 3.6 / 3.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.15 / 1.25 | 1.59 / 1.52 |
| Per game | Stoke | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.57 | 1.86 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.21 | 0.93 |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 36% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 5.4 | 5.4 / 4.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.03 / 1.52 | 1.70 / 1.40 |
| Per game | Stoke | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.71 | 1.29 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.4 / 4.3 | 5.7 / 4.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| xG for / against | 1.06 / 0.91 | 1.83 / 1.35 |
| Per game | Stoke | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.5 / 4.5 | 4.5 / 5.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
Market fair prices
| Match result | Stoke win | 32% | 21/10 |
| Draw | 29% | 5/2 | |
| Birmingham win | 39% | 8/5 | |
| Double chance | Stoke or draw | 61% | 8/13 |
| Birmingham or draw | 68% | 1/2 | |
| Draw no bet | Stoke | 45% | 6/5 |
| Birmingham | 55% | 5/6 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | evens |
| No | 49% | 21/20 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 71% | 2/5 |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 5/4 | |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 4/5 | |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 16/5 | |
| Result and BTTS | Stoke and yes | 14% | 6/1 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Birmingham and yes | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Result and goals | Stoke and over 2.5 | 17% | 9/2 |
| Birmingham and over 2.5 | 21% | 18/5 | |
| Stoke and under 2.5 | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Birmingham and under 2.5 | 17% | 9/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Birmingham / Birmingham | 23% | 10/3 |
| Stoke / Stoke | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Draw / Birmingham | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 50% | evens |
| Over 10.5 | 39% | 6/4 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 50% | evens |
| Over 4.5 | 34% | 2/1 |
We calculate fair prices by dividing 1 by our chance figure.
Line-up predictions
Stoke 3-4-3
- Johansson, Viktor.GK
- Johnson, Ben.MID
- Bombino, Luca.MID
- Graham, Luke.DEF
- Taloverov, Maksym.DEF
- Wilmot, Ben.DEF
- McGlynn, Jack.MID
- Soumaré, Djibril.MID
- Bozeník, Róbert.FWD
- Manhoef, Million.FWD
- Devenny, Justin.FWD
Tue 3 Nov saw them start at Blackburn
Birmingham 4-2-3-1
- Allsop, Ryan.GK
- Laird, Ethan.DEF
- Cochrane, Alex.DEF
- Solís, Jhon.MID
- Neumann, Phil.DEF
- Klarer, Christoph.DEF
- Roberts, Patrick.MID
- Iwata, Tomoki.MID
- Bird, Max.FWD
- Stansfield, Jay.MID
- Millar, Liam.MID
They started Tue 3 Nov against Millwall.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 13.7 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Stoke, 16 games and Birmingham, 16 games.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 9.8League 10.4, with Stoke 4.8 and Birmingham 5.0
- Yellow cards expected: 3.8 (league 3.7).
Form from recent games
Stoke City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Blackburn | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Preston | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Bristol City | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Derby | 1-0 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Middlesbrough | 2-3 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Bolton | 2-1 | W |
For each score, Stoke's goal count comes first.
Birmingham City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | v Millwall | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 31 Oct | at Lincoln | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Cardiff | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v QPR | 3-0 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Preston | 4-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at West Brom | 1-0 | W |
For each score, Birmingham's goal count comes first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Jan 2026 | Championship | Birmingham 1-1 Stoke | 1-0 | 12 |
| Sat 13 Sep 2025 | Championship | Stoke 1-0 Birmingham | 1-0 | 8 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +11 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 27 |
| 3 | Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 25 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November