Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers prediction
Once the margin is removed, the market reads Southampton 52%, draw 24%, QPR 24%, averaged across 6 UK bookmakers.
The view from the model
Southampton hold 6th place in the Championship after collecting 24 points across 14 games. QPR sit 11th with 21 from 14 played, 3 points behind Southampton.
Southampton's last 6 games brought 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 10 scored and 5 conceded. Across their last 6 matches, QPR recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 13 goals while conceding 8.
Across matches this season, Southampton saw both teams score in 75%, while 58% finished with more than 2.5 goals; QPR's rates were 58% and 58%. Southampton's expected goals sit at 1.77 a game, with 1.30 allowed; QPR sit at 1.74 with 1.13 allowed.
In our results they met 2 times since August 2024. Southampton won 2 of them, QPR won 0, and 0 were level. Tuesday 24 February 2026 brought the latest of those, a Southampton 5-0 QPR win.
Most likely in our model is a Southampton win at 55% (draw 23%, QPR 23%), and the expected goals behind it are Southampton 2.02, QPR 1.24. Take the margin out of UK bookmaker prices and they sit at 52%, so our rating is higher than the market's.
We predict Southampton 2-1 Queens Park Rangers. One exact score comes out on top: 1-1 at 10.2%. Inside the result we lean to, the likeliest score is 2-1.
Stats for Southampton v QPR
| Per game |  Southampton |  QPR |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.8 / 5.4 | 4.2 / 3.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.89 / 1.17 | 2.02 / 1.10 |
| Per game | Southampton | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.1 / 4.9 | 5.5 / 3.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.77 / 1.30 | 1.74 / 1.13 |
| Per game | Southampton | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 4.7 | 4.3 / 3.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| xG for / against | 1.98 / 1.37 | 1.25 / 1.28 |
| Per game | Southampton | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.50 | 3.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.0 / 7.5 | 7.5 / 3.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 0.5 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Southampton win | 55% | 5/6 | 4/5 Betfred | -1.4% |
| Draw | 23% | 7/2 | 3/1 Betway | -9.5% | |
| QPR win | 23% | 7/2 | 10/3 Betway | -5.0% | |
| Double chance | Southampton or draw | 77% | 2/7 | ||
| QPR or draw | 45% | 6/5 | |||
| Draw no bet | Southampton | 71% | 2/5 | ||
| QPR | 29% | 5/2 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 8/13 | ||
| No | 38% | 13/8 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 84% | 2/11 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 4/7 | 4/7 bet365 | -0.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 7/4 | 11/8 bet365 | -12.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 6/4 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Southampton and yes | 30% | 9/4 | ||
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| QPR and yes | 14% | 13/2 | |||
| Result and goals | Southampton and over 2.5 | 40% | 6/4 | ||
| QPR and over 2.5 | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Southampton and under 2.5 | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| QPR and under 2.5 | 7% | 14/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Southampton / Southampton | 35% | 15/8 | ||
| Draw / Southampton | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| QPR / QPR | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 12% | 15/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 53% | 10/11 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 42% | 11/8 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 68% | 4/9 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 52% | 10/11 |
Divide our chance into 1 and you get the fair price. football-data.co.uk carries only match betting prices and goal totals set at over/under 2.5; edge appears where both figures are available.
Who starts for each side
Southampton 4-2-3-1
- Peretz, Daniel.GK
- Bree, James.DEF
- Manning, Ryan.DEF
- Ward-Prowse, James.MID
- Stephens, Jack.DEF
- Schlotterbeck, Keven.DEF
- Matsuki, Kuryu.MID
- Bragg, Cameron.MID
- Dobbin, Lewis.FWD
- Azaz, Finn.MID
- Scienza, Léo.MID
QPR 4-4-2
- Charles, Pierce.GK
- Adamson, Kealey.DEF
- Kemper, Boy.DEF
- Varane, Jonathan.MID
- Dunne, Jimmy.DEF
- Edwards, Ronnie.DEF
- Poku, Kwame.MID
- Kamara, Glen.MID
- Kone, Richard.FWD
- Smyth, Paul.FWD
- Vale, Harvey.MID
ESPN gave us these starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
For QPR, 15 games are covered, and Southampton has 16 games listed. This season's goal times by minute come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- A league average of 10.4 compares with 10.1 expected corners, split between Southampton 5.0 and QPR 5.1.
- We expect 4.9 yellow cards (league 3.7, referee adjusted).
Form guide
Southampton
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | at West Ham | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Bolton | 0-0 | D |
| Wed 14 Oct | at Norwich | 1-0 | W |
| Sun 11 Oct | v Portsmouth | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Wrexham | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 12 Sep | v Bristol City | 4-1 | W |
Scores are listed with Southampton first.
Queens Park Rangers
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | v Swansea | 5-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Birmingham | 0-3 | L |
| Wed 14 Oct | v Derby | 4-1 | W |
| Fri 9 Oct | at West Ham | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Preston | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 12 Sep | at West Brom | 1-1 | D |
Scores are listed with QPR first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 24 Feb 2026 | Championship | Southampton 5-0 QPR | 2-0 | 8 |
| Wed 5 Nov 2025 | Championship | QPR 1-2 Southampton | 0-0 | 13 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |  Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 25 |
| 6 | Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
| 7 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham United | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 22 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 11 | Queens Park Rangers | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +5 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich City | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 |
ESPN provided the standings as of Wednesday 4 November.