Southampton vs Middlesbrough prediction
Our breakdown
Southampton sit 7th in the Championship, with 24 points earned across 14 games. Boro sit 1st with 28 points from 14 games, 4 points clear.
Southampton's last 6 games brought 4 wins, 2 draws, 0 defeats, 10 goals scored and 4 conceded. In Boro's last 6, they won 4, drew 1 and lost 1, scoring 14 and conceding 7.
This season, 79% of Southampton matches saw both teams score, and 57% finished over 2.5 goals. Boro's numbers are 71% and 71%. Southampton's expected goals sit at 1.70 a game, with 1.34 allowed. Boro manage 2.04 and give up 1.00.
Since August 2024 our results show 2 meetings: 0 wins for Southampton, 1 for Boro and 1 draw. The most recent meeting, Sunday 4 January 2026, ended Middlesbrough 4-0 Southampton.
Based on expected goals of 1.68 for Southampton, 1.48 for Boro, the model gives a Southampton win the highest chance at 42%, against 25% for the draw and Boro 33%.
Score prediction: Southampton 2-1 Middlesbrough. One exact score tops the list at 11.2%, 1-1, and 2-1 is the likeliest score within the result we lean to.
Stats for Southampton v Boro
| Per game |  Southampton |  Boro |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.6 / 5.6 | 7.2 / 3.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.73 / 1.47 | 2.42 / 0.85 |
| Per game | Southampton | Boro |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.07 | 2.14 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.36 |
| Both teams scored | 79% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 21% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.4 / 4.7 | 6.1 / 4.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.70 / 1.34 | 2.04 / 1.00 |
| Per game | Southampton | Boro |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.86 | 1.86 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.71 | 1.43 |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.6 / 4.6 | 4.9 / 4.7 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| xG for / against | 1.87 / 1.28 | 2.14 / 0.97 |
| Per game | Southampton | Boro |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.50 | 0.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.5 / 7.0 | 7.0 / 5.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Southampton win | 42% | 7/5 |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Boro win | 33% | 2/1 | |
| Double chance | Southampton or draw | 67% | 1/2 |
| Boro or draw | 58% | 8/11 | |
| Draw no bet | Southampton | 56% | 4/5 |
| Boro | 44% | 5/4 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 4/7 |
| No | 37% | 7/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 83% | 1/5 |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 8/13 | |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 8/5 | |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 8/5 | |
| Result and BTTS | Southampton and yes | 24% | 16/5 |
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Boro and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Result and goals | Southampton and over 2.5 | 29% | 12/5 |
| Boro and over 2.5 | 23% | 10/3 | |
| Southampton and under 2.5 | 13% | 7/1 | |
| Boro and under 2.5 | 10% | 17/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Southampton / Southampton | 26% | 29/10 |
| Boro / Boro | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Draw / Southampton | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 7/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 61% | 4/6 |
| Over 10.5 | 50% | evens | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 46% | 6/5 |
| Over 4.5 | 30% | 12/5 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance.
Expected line-ups
Southampton 4-2-3-1
- Peretz, Daniel.GK
- Bree, James.DEF
- Manning, Ryan.DEF
- Downes, Flynn.MID
- Stephens, Jack.DEF
- Schlotterbeck, Keven.DEF
- Matsuki, Kuryu.MID
- Ward-Prowse, James.MID
- Mubama, Divin.FWD
- Azaz, Finn.MID
- Edozie, Samuel.MID
They started Tue 3 Nov at West Brom.
Boro 3-4-2-1
- Vítek, Radek.GK
- Brittain, Callum.MID
- Borges, Neto.MID
- Malanda, Adilson.DEF
- Phillips, Ashley.DEF
- Ayling, Luke.DEF
- Morris, Aidan.MID
- Berhalter, Sebastian.MID
- Joseph, Kyle.FWD
- Cozier-Duberry, Amario.FWD
- Conway, Tommy.FWD
They started the match at Wrexham on Wed 4 Nov.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Goal timing
Southampton have played 16 matches; Boro, 17 games.
Cards and corners
- Corner forecast (league 10.4): 10.8 in total, Southampton 5.0, Boro 5.7.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.6(league 3.7)
Form guide
Southampton
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at West Brom | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 31 Oct | v QPR | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at West Ham | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Bolton | 0-0 | D |
| Wed 14 Oct | at Norwich | 1-0 | W |
| Sun 11 Oct | v Portsmouth | 1-0 | W |
Southampton is listed first in the scores.
Middlesbrough
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | at Wrexham | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Charlton | 3-0 | W |
| Fri 23 Oct | at Bolton | 5-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Cardiff | 2-2 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Stoke | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Wolves | 1-0 | W |
Boro is listed first in the scores.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 4 Jan 2026 | Championship | Middlesbrough 4-0 Southampton | 0-0 | 16 |
| Sat 27 Sep 2025 | Championship | Southampton 1-1 Middlesbrough | 0-0 | 9 |
Championship table
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +11 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 25 |
| 7 | Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham United | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | +15 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November