Queens Park Rangers vs Lincoln City prediction
Our breakdown
After 14 games, QPR have 21 points and sit 11th in the Championship. Lincoln City have 15 points from 14 games, sit 17th and trail by 6 points.
QPR's last 6 games brought 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 12 goals scored and 10 conceded. From their last 6, Lincoln City took 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 16.
So far this season, both sides scored in 64% of QPR games, while 57% had more than 2.5 goals. For Lincoln City, those rates were 50% and 57%. QPR's expected goals run at 1.67 a game, with 1.07 allowed against them; Lincoln City sit at 1.30, with 1.44 allowed against them.
The model works from expected goals, with QPR on 1.67 and Lincoln City on 1.33. From those figures it rates a QPR win as the likeliest result at 45%, the draw at 25% and Lincoln City 30%.
Our forecast: Queens Park Rangers 2-1 Lincoln City. A 1-1 exact score has the highest single chance, at 11.7%. Within our favored result, 2-1 is the most likely score.
Stats for QPR v Lincoln City
| Per game |  QPR |  Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.6 / 4.2 | 3.2 / 7.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.82 / 0.79 | 1.23 / 2.10 |
| Per game | QPR | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.57 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.21 | 1.71 |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.6 / 4.0 | 3.6 / 7.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.67 / 1.07 | 1.30 / 1.44 |
| Per game | QPR | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.00 | 0.86 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.86 | 1.14 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 43% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.9 / 3.4 | 3.4 / 9.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 3.0 |
| xG for / against | 2.16 / 0.86 | 0.90 / 1.34 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | QPR win | 45% | 5/4 |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Lincoln City win | 30% | 9/4 | |
| Double chance | QPR or draw | 70% | 4/9 |
| Lincoln City or draw | 55% | 4/5 | |
| Draw no bet | QPR | 60% | 4/6 |
| Lincoln City | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 4/6 |
| No | 39% | 6/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 81% | 1/4 |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 8/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 11/8 | |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 15/8 | |
| Result and BTTS | QPR and yes | 24% | 3/1 |
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Lincoln City and yes | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Result and goals | QPR and over 2.5 | 30% | 9/4 |
| Lincoln City and over 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 | |
| QPR and under 2.5 | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Lincoln City and under 2.5 | 10% | 17/2 | |
| Half time / full time | QPR / QPR | 28% | 11/4 |
| Lincoln City / Lincoln City | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / QPR | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 55% | 4/5 |
| Over 10.5 | 44% | 5/4 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 53% | 10/11 |
| Over 4.5 | 37% | 7/4 |
Divide 1 by our chance to find the fair price. We don't yet have UK bookmaker prices listed for this match. football-data.co.uk usually adds them two or three days ahead of kick-off.
Line-ups we predict
QPR 4-4-2
- Charles, Pierce.GK
- Adamson, Kealey.DEF
- Cirkin, Dennis.DEF
- Varane, Jonathan.MID
- Dunne, Jimmy.DEF
- Edwards, Ronnie.DEF
- Vale, Harvey.MID
- Kamara, Glen.MID
- Smyth, Paul.FWD
- Kone, Richard.FWD
- Saito, Koki.MID
These players started against Burnley on Tue 3 Nov.
Lincoln City 3-4-2-1
- Wickens, George.GK
- Oyegoke, Daniel.MID
- Elder, Callum.MID
- Coubis, Andrei.DEF
- Bradley, Sonny.DEF
- Elerewe, Ayodeji.DEF
- Konak, Yunus.MID
- Bayliss, Tom.MID
- Draper, Freddie.FWD
- Ogbene, Chiedozie.FWD
- House, Ben.FWD
These players started at Watford on Tue 3 Nov.
For other clubs, ESPN lists the eleven who started their most recent match. Once they are named, ESPN's confirmed teams replace these, about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for the exact score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
When each side scores
Games played: QPR, 15; Lincoln City, 17. This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored by minute.
Corners and card counts
- Corners expected: 10.2, with QPR 6.1 and Lincoln City 4.2; the league figure is 10.4.
- Yellow cards expected: 4.0, compared with a league rate of 3.7.
Form guide
Queens Park Rangers
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | v Burnley | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 31 Oct | at Southampton | 1-4 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Swansea | 5-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Birmingham | 0-3 | L |
| Wed 14 Oct | v Derby | 4-1 | W |
| Fri 9 Oct | at West Ham | 1-1 | D |
QPR comes first in the scores.
Lincoln City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Watford | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Birmingham | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Burnley | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Millwall | 2-2 | D |
| Wed 14 Oct | v West Ham | 0-6 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Sheffield United | 0-3 | L |
Lincoln City comes first in the scores.
The Championship table
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 11 | Queens Park Rangers | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +5 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich City | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn Rovers | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 18 |  Cardiff City | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
The standings come from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.