Portsmouth vs Swansea City prediction
With the margin removed, the market has Portsmouth 35%, draw 29% and Swansea 36% (average of 6 UK bookmakers).
What the model showed
In the Championship, Portsmouth sit 10th after 14 games, with 22 points. Swansea sit 4th with 26 points from 14 games, 4 points ahead.
Across their last 6 matches, Portsmouth recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 5. In their last 6, Swansea had 4 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 8.
In 54% of Portsmouth games this season both teams scored, while 46% went over 2.5 goals. Swansea: 38% and 62%. Portsmouth's expected goals are 1.23 a game, with 1.19 allowed. For Swansea, the figures are 1.61 created and 1.28 allowed.
Our results list 4 meetings since August 2024: Portsmouth took 1 win, Swansea took 2 and the other 1 ended level. Their most recent meeting, on Tuesday 10 March 2026, ended with Portsmouth 1-2 Swansea.
Our model puts a Portsmouth win first at 37% (the draw 28%, Swansea 35%), using expected goals, 1.32 for Portsmouth and 1.26 for Swansea. After the margin is taken out, UK bookmakers have it at 35%, so our rating sits higher than the market.
Our predicted score is Portsmouth 1-0 Swansea City. Of all exact scores, 1-1 has the highest chance at 13.3%. Within the result we lean to, 1-0 ranks highest.
Stats for Portsmouth v Swansea
| Per game |  Portsmouth |  Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.0 / 4.6 | 3.8 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.03 / 1.18 | 1.69 / 1.46 |
| Per game | Portsmouth | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.23 | 1.54 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.15 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 46% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.6 / 4.8 | 4.1 / 4.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| xG for / against | 1.23 / 1.19 | 1.61 / 1.28 |
| Per game | Portsmouth | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.7 / 5.0 | 4.0 / 6.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.61 / 1.24 | 1.34 / 1.60 |
| Per game | Portsmouth | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.75 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 5.0 | 5.0 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 1.5 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Portsmouth win | 37% | 13/8 | 7/4 BetVictor | +1.0% |
| Draw | 28% | 5/2 | 5/2 Betway | -2.1% | |
| Swansea win | 35% | 15/8 | 13/8 Paddy Power | -9.0% | |
| Double chance | Portsmouth or draw | 65% | 8/15 | ||
| Swansea or draw | 63% | 8/13 | |||
| Draw no bet | Portsmouth | 52% | 10/11 | ||
| Swansea | 48% | 11/10 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 10/11 | ||
| No | 47% | 11/10 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 74% | 4/11 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 11/10 | 6/5 bet365 | +5.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 10/11 | 4/6 bet365 | -12.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 11/4 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Portsmouth and yes | 17% | 9/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Swansea and yes | 16% | 5/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Portsmouth and over 2.5 | 22% | 7/2 | ||
| Swansea and over 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Portsmouth and under 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 | |||
| Swansea and under 2.5 | 15% | 6/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Portsmouth / Portsmouth | 22% | 7/2 | ||
| Swansea / Swansea | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 16% | 5/1 | |||
| Draw / Portsmouth | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 52% | 10/11 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 41% | 11/8 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 60% | 4/6 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 43% | 11/8 |
Our fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. We get bookmaker prices from football-data.co.uk. It lists match odds plus over/under 2.5 only. Edge appears where both figures are available.
Players set to start
Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
- Schmid, Nicolas.GK
- Devlin, Terry.DEF
- Meghoma, Jayden.DEF
- Mohamed, Iyad.MID
- Poole, Regan.DEF
- Dia, Madiodio.DEF
- Segecic, Adrian.MID
- Adams, Ebrima.MID
- Milovanovic, Marko.FWD
- Bailey, Odin.MID
- Shade, Tyrese.MID
Swansea 4-3-3
- Vigouroux, Lawrence.GK
- Lissah, Filip.DEF
- Tymon, Josh.DEF
- Fulton, Jay.MID
- Seelt, Jenson.DEF
- Welsh, Stephen.DEF
- Franco, Gonçalo.MID
- Stamenic, Marko.MID
- Idah, Adam.FWD
- Opoku, Joseph.FWD
- Widell, Melker.FWD
We read the starting elevens on ESPN, on Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When each side scores
Games for Portsmouth, 15. Games for Swansea, 15. This season, ESPN match events give us the goals scored by minute.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected, 9.9 in total: Portsmouth 5.1, Swansea 4.9, with the league at 10.5.
- Yellow cards expected: 4.3 (league 3.7, referee adjusted).
Form in recent matches
Portsmouth
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Burnley | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Millwall | 2-1 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Wolves | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Norwich | 1-0 | W |
| Wed 14 Oct | v Sheffield United | 3-2 | W |
| Sun 11 Oct | at Southampton | 0-1 | L |
Read the scores with Portsmouth first.
Swansea City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Blackburn | 4-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at QPR | 0-5 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v West Ham | 0-1 | L |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Millwall | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Norwich | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Lincoln | 2-1 | W |
Read the scores with Swansea first.
Head to head
| Tue 10 Mar 2026 | Championship | Portsmouth 1-2 Swansea | 0-2 | 6 |
| Tue 9 Dec 2025 | Championship | Swansea 1-0 Portsmouth | 0-0 | 11 |
| Wed 1 Jan 2025 | Championship | Portsmouth 4-0 Swansea | 2-0 | 12 |
| Sat 30 Nov 2024 | Championship | Swansea 2-2 Portsmouth | 1-2 | 10 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |  Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 4 | Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 25 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
| 7 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham United | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 22 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 11 |  Queens Park Rangers | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +5 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich City | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
The standings here are from ESPN, current as of Wednesday 4 November.