Port Vale vs Scunthorpe United prediction
The analysis we offer
This FA Cup match brings together one League Two team and one National League team, 1 division apart. Using league games and past cup ties, the model places both clubs on the same scale.
Across their last 6 matches, Port Vale took 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded. Scunthorpe's last 6 matches brought 1 win, 0 draws and 5 defeats, with 8 scored and 15 against.
Of Port Vale's matches this season, 33% featured goals from both sides and 17% went over 2.5 goals. Scunthorpe's corresponding figures are 60% and 60%.
Port Vale have 2.00 expected goals, while Scunthorpe have 0.78. The model uses these expected goals to give a Port Vale win the highest chance at 65% (the draw 22%, Scunthorpe 13%).
Our prediction: Port Vale 2-0 Scunthorpe United.
Port Vale vs Scunthorpe match stats
| Per game |  Port Vale |  Scunthorpe |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 5.8 | 5.8 / 2.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| Per game | Port Vale | Scunthorpe |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 15 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.83 | 1.27 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.17 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 17% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 7% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 5.1 | 5.1 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Per game | Port Vale | Scunthorpe |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.33 | 0.89 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.50 | 2.22 |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 17% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 11% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.2 / 4.3 | 4.7 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.4 |
Market fair prices
| Match result | Port Vale win | 65% | 8/15 |
| Draw | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Scunthorpe win | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Double chance | Port Vale or draw | 87% | 2/13 |
| Scunthorpe or draw | 35% | 15/8 | |
| Draw no bet | Port Vale | 83% | 1/5 |
| Scunthorpe | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 11/10 |
| No | 53% | 10/11 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | 3/10 |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 10/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 9/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Port Vale and yes | 26% | 11/4 |
| Draw and yes | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Scunthorpe and yes | 6% | 14/1 | |
| Result and goals | Port Vale and over 2.5 | 41% | 11/8 |
| Scunthorpe and over 2.5 | 7% | 14/1 | |
| Port Vale and under 2.5 | 24% | 3/1 | |
| Scunthorpe and under 2.5 | 6% | 16/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Port Vale / Port Vale | 43% | 11/8 |
| Draw / Port Vale | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 7/1 | |
| Scunthorpe / Scunthorpe | 7% | 12/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 56% | 4/5 |
| Over 10.5 | 45% | 6/5 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 41% | 6/4 |
| Over 4.5 | 25% | 3/1 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed doesn't include UK bookmaker prices for this match because football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition.
Line-up predictions
Port Vale 3-5-2
- Marosi, Marko.GK
- Lawrence-Gabriel, Jordan.MID
- Headley, Jaheim.MID
- Hall, Connor.DEF
- Moon, Jasper.DEF
- Humphreys, Cameron.DEF
- Dempsey, Kyle.MID
- Hall, George.MID
- Hernández, Onel.FWD
- Watters, Max.FWD
- Byers, George.MID
Started on Sat 31 Oct against Rochdale.
Scunthorpe 4-1-4-1
- Campbell, Maison.GK
- Starbuck, Joseph.DEF
- Denton, Tyler.DEF
- Batty, Dan.MID
- Belehouan, Jean.DEF
- Evans, Will.DEF
- Jones, Patrick.MID
- Richards, Jordan.MID
- Norwood, James.FWD
- Beestin, Alfie.MID
- Brennan, Luke.MID
They started Sat 31 Oct at Boston Utd.
For other clubs, the starting eleven comes from their most recent match, as reported by ESPN. These line-ups are replaced by ESPN's confirmed teams when they're named, about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Port Vale, 13 games and Scunthorpe, 15 games. This season's ESPN match events give the goals scored by minute.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 10.3 in total, with Port Vale 5.0 and Scunthorpe 5.4; the league figure is 9.9.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.3 (league 3.7).
Form in recent matches
Port Vale
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Rochdale | 4-2 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at York | 0-2 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Gillingham | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Chesterfield | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Grimsby | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Walsall | 0-2 | L |
Port Vale appears first in the scores.
Scunthorpe United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Boston Utd | 1-2 | L |
| Tue 27 Oct | at Tamworth | 1-4 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Woking | 2-3 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Fylde | 0-2 | L |
| Tue 29 Sep | at Barrow | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 26 Sep | v Hartlepool | 4-1 | W |
Scunthorpe appears first in the scores.