Peterborough United vs Luton Town prediction
Margin removed, the market reads Peterborough 28%, draw 24%, Luton 48% (averaged across 6 UK bookmakers)
The model's view of the game
Peterborough sit 22nd in League One, picking up 10 points from 13 matches. With 24 points from 14 games, Luton sit 3rd and hold a 14-point lead.
Over their last 6 matches, Peterborough won 1, drew 2, lost 3, scored 7 and conceded 11 Luton's last 6 show 4 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, with 12 scored and 7 conceded
So far this season 58% of Peterborough games saw both teams score and 50% went over 2.5 goals; Luton's figures are 83% and 75%. Each game, Peterborough generate 1.49 expected goals and give up 1.47, while Luton generate 1.72 and give up 1.14
Since August 2024 our results contain 2 meetings, with Peterborough taking 0 wins and Luton 2, while 0 ended level. On Friday 3 April 2026, the latest meeting ended Luton 2-1 Peterborough
Working from expected goals of 1.40 (Peterborough) and 1.72 (Luton), the model rates a Luton win the likeliest outcome at 45% (Peterborough 31%, the draw 25%). UK bookmakers put the chance at 48% once their margin is removed, so the market sees it as higher than we do
The predicted score is Peterborough United 1-2 Luton Town One exact score stands above the rest: 1-1 at 11.3%; within the result we lean to, 1-2 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Peterborough v Luton
| Per game |  Peterborough |  Luton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 8.0 / 3.8 | 6.6 / 5.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.61 / 1.65 | 2.11 / 1.35 |
| Per game | Peterborough | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.92 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.75 | 1.67 |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 8% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.2 / 4.6 | 6.4 / 4.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.49 / 1.47 | 1.72 / 1.14 |
| Per game | Peterborough | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.8 / 4.4 | 5.0 / 4.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.69 / 0.96 | 1.64 / 1.61 |
| Per game | Peterborough | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.5 / 6.5 | 6.5 / 3.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.5 |
Fair prices and the best UK odds
| Match result | Peterborough win | 31% | 9/4 | 5/2 bet365 | +4.2% |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | 3/1 Betfred | -1.0% | |
| Luton win | 45% | 5/4 | evens Betway | -11.7% | |
| Double chance | Peterborough or draw | 55% | 4/5 | ||
| Luton or draw | 69% | 4/9 | |||
| Draw no bet | Peterborough | 41% | 6/4 | ||
| Luton | 59% | 4/6 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 8/13 | ||
| No | 38% | 13/8 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 82% | 2/9 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 4/6 | 4/9 bet365 | -13.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 6/4 | 7/4 bet365 | +7.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 13/8 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Peterborough and yes | 18% | 9/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Luton and yes | 25% | 3/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Peterborough and over 2.5 | 21% | 4/1 | ||
| Luton and over 2.5 | 31% | 9/4 | |||
| Peterborough and under 2.5 | 10% | 9/1 | |||
| Luton and under 2.5 | 14% | 13/2 | |||
| Half time / full time | Luton / Luton | 28% | 11/4 | ||
| Peterborough / Peterborough | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Luton | 15% | 6/1 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 7/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 66% | 1/2 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 56% | 4/5 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 43% | 11/8 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 27% | 11/4 |
A fair price comes from dividing 1 by our chance The bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk, a site that carries match odds plus over/under 2.5 and nothing more. The edge appears only where we have both numbers.
Starting elevens for each side
Peterborough 4-2-3-1
- Bass, Alex.GK
- Johnston, Carl.DEF
- Mills, Harley.DEF
- Ashfield, Harry.MID
- Mendonça, Lucca.DEF
- O'Connor, Thomas.DEF
- Shofowoke, Bolu.MID
- Kelly, Liam.MID
- Leonard, Harry.FWD
- Williams, Ethan.MID
- Masara, Vernon.MID
Luton 4-1-4-1
- Shea, James.GK
- Jones, Isaiah.DEF
- Johnson, Joseph.DEF
- Walsh, Liam.MID
- Andersen, Mads.DEF
- Johnston, George.DEF
- Richards, Jake.MID
- Donley, Jamie.MID
- Marshall, Callum.FWD
- Clark, Jordan.MID
- Palmer, Kasey.MID
The starting elevens were read from ESPN on Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for exact scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Luton, 16 games, and Peterborough, 17 games. This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored by minute.
Corner and card figures
- Expected corners: 11.3 overall, with Peterborough 5.2 and Luton 6.1; the league figure is 10.4.
- With referee adjustment, 3.4 yellow cards are expected against a league 3.7.
Form in recent matches
Peterborough United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 27 Oct | at Bradford | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Bromley | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Huddersfield | 1-4 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Burton | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Leicester | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Stockport | 0-1 | L |
Each score lists Peterborough first.
Luton Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 27 Oct | v Doncaster | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Leicester | 2-1 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Barnsley | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Milton Keynes Dons | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Wycombe | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Bradford | 0-1 | L |
Luton is listed first in the scores.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 3 Apr 2026 | League One | Luton 2-1 Peterborough | 1-0 | 11 |
| Sat 9 Aug 2025 | League One | Peterborough 0-2 Luton | 0-0 | 9 |
League One table
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Huddersfield Town | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Stockport County | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +12 | 26 |
| 3 | Luton Town | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 24 |
| 4 |  Oxford United | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 |  Plymouth Argyle | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Doncaster Rovers | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 21 |  Wigan Athletic | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 | Peterborough United | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 10 |
| 23 |  Barnsley | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 24 |  Bromley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -20 | 9 |
ESPN provided the standings as of Wednesday 4 November.