Oxford United vs Stevenage prediction
Our breakdown
This FA Cup match brings together two League One sides The model's scale rates both clubs together, and it comes from league games plus earlier cup ties.
Oxford Utd's last 6 matches show 3 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses, with 7 goals scored and 3 conceded. Stevenage's last 6 matches show 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 6 goals scored and 6 conceded.
So far this season, both teams scored in 62% of Oxford Utd games, while 54% had more than 2.5 goals. Stevenage's figures are 50% and 50% Per game, Oxford Utd's expected goals are 1.44 and their expected goals against are 1.56. Stevenage's figures are 1.09 and 1.14.
Since August 2024, our results list 1 meeting between them. Oxford Utd took 1 win, Stevenage took 0 and 0 matches ended level. On Saturday 22 August 2026, the most recent meeting finished Stevenage 1-2 Oxford.
An Oxford Utd win is the likeliest outcome in the model at 48%, with the draw on 30% and Stevenage 22%. Those chances are built from expected goals: Oxford Utd 1.32, Stevenage 0.82.
Score prediction: Oxford United 1-0 Stevenage.
Stats for Oxford Utd v Stevenage
| Per game |  Oxford Utd |  Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.2 / 5.6 | 3.6 / 8.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.80 / 1.39 | 1.19 / 1.38 |
| Per game | Oxford Utd | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.69 | 1.42 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.85 | 1.08 |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.3 / 6.7 | 3.9 / 6.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.44 / 1.56 | 1.09 / 1.14 |
| Per game | Oxford Utd | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.57 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.57 | 1.17 |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.3 / 6.6 | 2.7 / 5.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| xG for / against | 1.37 / 1.34 | 1.10 / 1.32 |
| Per game | Oxford Utd | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.0 / 6.0 | 6.0 / 6.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 4.0 | 1.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.24 / 0.99 | 0.99 / 1.24 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Oxford Utd win | 48% | 11/10 |
| Draw | 30% | 9/4 | |
| Stevenage win | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Double chance | Oxford Utd or draw | 78% | 2/7 |
| Stevenage or draw | 52% | 10/11 | |
| Draw no bet | Oxford Utd | 68% | 4/9 |
| Stevenage | 32% | 9/4 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 11/8 |
| No | 58% | 8/11 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 64% | 4/7 |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 7/4 | |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 4/7 | |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Result and BTTS | Oxford Utd and yes | 16% | 5/1 |
| Draw and yes | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Stevenage and yes | 8% | 11/1 | |
| Result and goals | Oxford Utd and over 2.5 | 23% | 7/2 |
| Stevenage and over 2.5 | 10% | 9/1 | |
| Oxford Utd and under 2.5 | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Stevenage and under 2.5 | 13% | 7/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Oxford Utd / Oxford Utd | 28% | 5/2 |
| Draw / Draw | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Draw / Oxford Utd | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Stevenage / Stevenage | 12% | 7/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 57% | 8/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 46% | 6/5 |
| Over 4.5 | 29% | 5/2 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance Our feed has no UK bookmaker prices for this match, as football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition.
Team line-ups we predict
Oxford Utd 4-2-3-1
- Eastwood, SimonGK
- Kioso, PeterDEF
- Currie, JackDEF
- Brannagan, CameronMID
- Helik, MichalDEF
- Brown, CiaronDEF
- Emakhu, AidomoMID
- Andrews, KaiMID
- Harris, MarkFWD
- Goodrham, TylerMID
- Dembele, SirikiMID
They started against Reading on Wed 4 Nov.
Stevenage 4-4-1-1
- Setford, TommyGK
- Vancooten, TerenceDEF
- Earley, SaxonDEF
- Thompson, LouisMID
- Casey, KaelanDEF
- Piergianni, Carl.DEF
- Sanderson, Oliver.MID
- Phillips, Daniel.MID
- Magennis, Josh.FWD
- Broggio, Ben.FWD
- Patterson, Phoenix.MID
They started away at Leicester on Sat 31 Oct.
For every other club, ESPN lists the eleven that began their most recent match. Once ESPN confirms the teams, they take the place of these, about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.5 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
Oxford Utd, 14 games , and Stevenage, 14 games. This season's goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected stand at 10.4, with Oxford Utd 5.3 and Stevenage 5.1 (league 10.4).
- Expected yellow cards: 3.5 (league 3.7).
Latest form
Oxford United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | v Reading | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 31 Oct | at Barnsley | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 27 Oct | v Stockport | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Bradford | 0-0 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Wigan | 2-1 | W |
| Thu 15 Oct | at Mansfield | 1-1 | D |
The Oxford Utd score is read first.
Stevenage
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Leicester | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Milton Keynes Dons | 0-1 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Plymouth | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Bradford | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Wigan | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Leyton Orient | 0-1 | L |
The Stevenage score is read first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 22 Aug 2026 | League One | Stevenage 1-2 Oxford | 0-0 | 12 |