Norwich City vs Watford prediction
With the margin removed, the market gives Norwich City 60%, 22% to the draw and Watford 18%, averaged across 6 UK bookmakers.
How the model viewed it
In the Championship, Norwich City sit 12th after 14 games and have 18 points. Watford sit 20th with 14 points from 14 games, 4 points behind.
In their most recent 6 games, Norwich City recorded 1 win, 0 draws and 5 losses. They scored 7 and conceded 14. Watford's last 6 matches gave them 1 win, 0 draws and 5 losses, with 4 goals scored and 13 conceded.
This season, both teams scored in 67% of Norwich City matches, while 75% finished with more than 2.5 goals. For Watford, the numbers are 50% and 42%. Expected-goal totals for Norwich City are 1.44 created and 1.49 allowed per game, compared with 1.03 created and 1.89 allowed for Watford.
Since August 2024, our results list 4 meetings. Norwich City took 2 wins and Watford took 2, while 0 finished level. The most recent one, played on Monday 29 December 2025, ended Norwich 0-1 Watford.
The model's pick is a Norwich City win at 60%, while a draw stands at 22% and Watford 18%. That view comes from expected goals: Norwich City 2.00, Watford 1.01. UK bookmakers, once their margin is removed, also rate it at 60%, which is close to our number.
Norwich City 2-1 Watford is the predicted score. Among exact scores, 1-1 is the single likeliest at 10.6%; within the result we favor, 2-1 is the likeliest score.
Match stats: Norwich City v Watford
| Per game |  Norwich City |  Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.8 / 2.4 | 3.6 / 5.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 3.0 |
| xG for / against | 0.90 / 1.53 | 1.11 / 2.07 |
| Per game | Norwich City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.83 | 1.67 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 8% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.4 / 3.9 | 3.5 / 6.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.44 / 1.49 | 1.03 / 1.89 |
| Per game | Norwich City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.67 | 0.33 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.5 / 3.3 | 3.0 / 7.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.32 / 1.51 | 0.82 / 2.16 |
| Per game | Norwich City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.75 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.5 / 4.5 | 4.5 / 5.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Norwich City win | 60% | 4/6 | 4/7 Betway | -5.6% |
| Draw | 22% | 7/2 | 10/3 BetVictor | -3.0% | |
| Watford win | 18% | 9/2 | 5/1 bet365 | +2.4% | |
| Double chance | Norwich City or draw | 82% | 2/9 | ||
| Watford or draw | 40% | 6/4 | |||
| Draw no bet | Norwich City | 77% | 3/10 | ||
| Watford | 23% | 10/3 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 4/5 | ||
| No | 45% | 5/4 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 81% | 1/4 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 8/11 | 4/7 bet365 | -9.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 11/8 | 11/8 bet365 | +0.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 15/8 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Norwich City and yes | 29% | 5/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Watford and yes | 10% | 9/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Norwich City and over 2.5 | 41% | 6/4 | ||
| Watford and over 2.5 | 11% | 8/1 | |||
| Norwich City and under 2.5 | 19% | 4/1 | |||
| Watford and under 2.5 | 7% | 14/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Norwich City / Norwich City | 39% | 13/8 | ||
| Draw / Norwich City | 19% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 12% | 7/1 | |||
| Watford / Watford | 10% | 9/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 49% | 21/20 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 38% | 13/8 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 58% | 8/11 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 41% | 11/8 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. football-data.co.uk supplies bookmaker prices for match odds and over/under 2.5, but it offers no other markets. We can show edge where both numbers are available.
Players starting the match
Norwich City 4-2-3-1
- Grimshaw, Daniel.GK
- Stacey, Jack.DEF
- Chrisene, Benjamin.DEF
- Field, Sam.MID
- McConville, Ruairi.DEF
- Córdoba, José.DEF
- Brooks, Andre.MID
- Wright, Jacob.MID
- Kvistgaarden, Mathias.FWD
- Paris MaghomaMID
- Musaba, Anthony.MID
Watford 5-3-2
- Ravaglia, Federico.GK
- Diatta, Krépin.DEF
- Zemura, Jordan.DEF
- Mlacic, Branimir.DEF
- Pollock, Matthew.DEF
- Keben, Kévin.DEF
- Kayembe, Edo.MID
- Kyprianou, Hector.MID
- Bravo, Iker.FWD
- Boadu, Myron.FWD
- Payero, Martín.MID
The starting elevens were read from ESPN on Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Norwich City, 17 games and Watford, 16 games. This season's goals by minute come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Expected corners: 9.7, with Norwich City 5.7 and Watford 4.0; the league figure is 10.4.
- Yellow cards expected: 4.3 (league 3.7, adjusted for the referee).
Form guide
Norwich City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | at Charlton | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Portsmouth | 0-1 | L |
| Wed 14 Oct | v Southampton | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Swansea | 1-2 | L |
| Sun 20 Sep | v Bolton | 3-4 | L |
| Thu 17 Sep | at Man City | 0-5 | L |
Norwich City is listed first in the scores.
Watford
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | at Wolves | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Charlton | 2-0 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Cardiff | 1-5 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Burnley | 0-4 | L |
| Fri 18 Sep | at Bristol City | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 12 Sep | v Stoke | 1-2 | L |
Watford is listed first in the scores.
Head to head
| Mon 29 Dec 2025 | Championship | Norwich 0-1 Watford | 0-0 | 11 |
| Sat 6 Dec 2025 | Championship | Watford 3-2 Norwich | 1-2 | 11 |
| Sat 1 Feb 2025 | Championship | Watford 0-1 Norwich | 0-1 | 10 |
| Sat 21 Sep 2024 | Championship | Norwich 4-1 Watford | 2-1 | 8 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 11 |  Queens Park Rangers | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +5 | 21 |
| 12 | Norwich City | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn Rovers | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 18 |  Cardiff City | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 20 | Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton Athletic | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
The table comes from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.