Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town prediction
Analysis from us
A League One team faces a League Two team in the FA Cup, with 1 division between them. League games and earlier cup ties feed into the single scale used to rate both clubs.
Across their last 6, MK Dons recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, with 14 goals scored and 10 conceded. Of Swindon's last 6 matches, 2 were won, 2 drawn and 2 lost, with 6 scored and 5 against.
For MK Dons this season, 69% of games featured goals from both sides, while 54% had more than 2.5 goals. Swindon's figures were 50% and 50%. For expected goals, MK Dons produce 1.66 a game and concede 1.45. Swindon's figures are 1.26 created and 1.62 allowed.
Since August 2024, our results show 4 meetings, with 3 wins for MK Dons, 0 for Swindon and 1 draw. On Saturday 14 March 2026, the most recent meeting finished Swindon 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons.
The model gives MK Dons an expected-goals total of 2.05 and Swindon 1.17, making a MK Dons win likeliest at 57% (the draw 22%, Swindon 21%).
We predict: Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 Swindon Town. At 10.2%, 1-1 is the likeliest single exact score. For the result we favor, 2-1 is the likeliest score.
MK Dons v Swindon match stats
| Per game |  MK Dons |  Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.8 / 5.0 | 4.2 / 5.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| xG for / against | 2.10 / 0.83 | 1.35 / 1.72 |
| Per game | MK Dons | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.69 | 1.07 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.54 | 1.21 |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.3 / 5.8 | 4.2 / 7.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.66 / 1.45 | 1.26 / 1.62 |
| Per game | MK Dons | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.14 | 0.43 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 14% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.4 / 6.1 | 3.1 / 9.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.64 / 1.72 | 0.90 / 2.08 |
| Per game | MK Dons | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 5.0 | 5.0 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | MK Dons win | 57% | 8/11 |
| Draw | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Swindon win | 21% | 4/1 | |
| Double chance | MK Dons or draw | 79% | 1/4 |
| Swindon or draw | 43% | 11/8 | |
| Draw no bet | MK Dons | 73% | 4/11 |
| Swindon | 27% | 11/4 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 4/6 |
| No | 39% | 6/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 84% | 1/5 |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 8/13 | |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 13/8 | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | MK Dons and yes | 31% | 9/4 |
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Swindon and yes | 12% | 7/1 | |
| Result and goals | MK Dons and over 2.5 | 41% | 6/4 |
| Swindon and over 2.5 | 14% | 6/1 | |
| MK Dons and under 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Swindon and under 2.5 | 7% | 14/1 | |
| Half time / full time | MK Dons / MK Dons | 37% | 7/4 |
| Draw / MK Dons | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Swindon / Swindon | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 64% | 4/7 |
| Over 10.5 | 53% | 10/11 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 26% | 3/1 |
| Over 4.5 | 14% | 13/2 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed doesn't include UK bookmaker prices for this match, because football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition.
The starting elevens we predict
MK Dons 3-1-4-2
- Dennis, William.GK
- Silvera, Samuel.MID
- Campbell, Elijah.MID
- Goode, Charlie.DEF
- Ekpiteta, Marvin.DEF
- Sanders, Jack.DEF
- Crowley, Daniel.MID
- Wintle, Ryan.DEF
- Nombe, Sam.FWD
- Collins, Aaron.FWD
- Gilbey, Alex.MID
These players started against Doncaster on Sat 31 Oct.
Swindon 3-4-2-1
- Ripley, Connor.GK
- Clark, Mitchell.MID
- Butler, Dan.MID
- Kirkman, Billy.DEF
- Negru, Stephan.DEF
- Ball, James.DEF
- Thomson, Shaun.MID
- Virtue-Thick, Matthew.MID
- Drinan, Aaron.FWD
- Nichols, Tom.FWD
- Snowdon, Joseph.FWD
They started against Rotherham on Sat 31 Oct.
For other clubs, ESPN provides the eleven players who started in their latest match. Once ESPN names the confirmed teams, they replace these line-ups about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for the exact score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
For MK Dons, 14 games; for Swindon, 15 games. This season's scoring minutes come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 11.1 (league 10.4; MK Dons 6.2, Swindon 4.9).
- Yellow cards expected: 2.5 (league 3.7).
Form guide
Milton Keynes Dons
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Doncaster | 6-1 | W |
| Tue 27 Oct | v Bromley | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Stevenage | 1-0 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Blackpool | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Luton | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Reading | 1-5 | L |
The MK Dons score comes first.
Swindon Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Rotherham | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Bristol Rvs | 0-0 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Barnet | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Walsall | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Crewe | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Rochdale | 0-1 | L |
The Swindon score comes first.
Head to head
| Sat 14 Mar 2026 | League Two | Swindon 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons | 0-1 | 11 |
| Fri 26 Dec 2025 | League Two | Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 Swindon | 1-0 | 13 |
| Sat 3 May 2025 | League Two | Swindon 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons | 0-0 | 3 |
| Sat 9 Nov 2024 | League Two | Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 Swindon | 1-1 | 12 |