Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers prediction
The analysis we offer
Millwall are 13th in the Championship on 18 points from 14 games. QPR sit 11th with 21 points from 14 games, 3 points ahead of Millwall.
Across Millwall's last 6, the record was 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 9 conceded. QPR's last 6 brought 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 12 goals scored and 10 conceded.
This season, Millwall saw both teams score in 50% of matches, while 79% had more than 2.5 goals. QPR's rates were 64% and 57%. Millwall average 1.88 expected goals per match and concede 1.32. QPR average 1.67 and concede 1.07.
Our results include 4 meetings since August 2024. Millwall won 3 of the games, QPR won 0 of them and 1 ended level. The latest meeting, on Saturday 18 April 2026, ended Millwall 2-0 QPR.
Working from expected goals of 1.67 (Millwall) and 1.13 (QPR), the model gives a Millwall win the highest chance at 49%. The draw is 26%, QPR 25%.
The score prediction is Millwall 2-1 Queens Park Rangers. At 12.2%, 1-1 ranks as the most likely single exact score. Within the result we favor, 2-1 is the most likely score.
Stats for Millwall v QPR
| Per game |  Millwall |  QPR |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.2 / 3.8 | 4.6 / 4.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.83 / 1.30 | 1.82 / 0.79 |
| Per game | Millwall | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.64 | 1.57 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.71 | 1.21 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 21% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.4 / 5.9 | 5.6 / 4.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.88 / 1.32 | 1.67 / 1.07 |
| Per game | Millwall | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.14 | 1.14 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.29 | 1.57 |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.3 / 4.7 | 4.3 / 4.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| xG for / against | 2.16 / 1.33 | 1.18 / 1.27 |
| Per game | Millwall | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.75 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.75 | 1.75 |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.2 / 8.5 | 8.5 / 5.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Millwall win | 49% | 21/20 |
| Draw | 26% | 29/10 | |
| QPR win | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Double chance | Millwall or draw | 75% | 1/3 |
| QPR or draw | 51% | evens | |
| Draw no bet | Millwall | 66% | 1/2 |
| QPR | 34% | 2/1 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 4/5 |
| No | 44% | 5/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 78% | 2/7 |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 10/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 9/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Millwall and yes | 24% | 16/5 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |
| QPR and yes | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Result and goals | Millwall and over 2.5 | 31% | 11/5 |
| QPR and over 2.5 | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Millwall and under 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |
| QPR and under 2.5 | 10% | 9/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Millwall / Millwall | 30% | 23/10 |
| Draw / Millwall | 17% | 5/1 | |
| QPR / QPR | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 61% | 4/6 |
| Over 10.5 | 50% | evens | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 51% | evens |
| Over 4.5 | 34% | 2/1 |
A fair price = 1 divided by our chance.
Our predicted line-ups
Millwall 4-4-2
- Crocombe, Max.GK
- Osei-Tutu, Jordi.DEF
- Sturge, Zak.DEF
- Neghli, Camiel.MID
- Taylor, Caleb.DEF
- Cooper, Jake.DEF
- Lisbie, Kyrell.MID
- Mazou-Sacko, Derek.MID
- Ivanovic, Mihailo.FWD
- Dykes, Lyndon.FWD
- Cundle, Luke.MID
They started Tue 3 Nov at Birmingham.
QPR 4-4-2
- Charles, Pierce.GK
- Adamson, Kealey.DEF
- Cirkin, Dennis.DEF
- Varane, Jonathan.MID
- Dunne, Jimmy.DEF
- Edwards, Ronnie.DEF
- Vale, Harvey.MID
- Kamara, Glen.MID
- Smyth, Paul.FWD
- Kone, Richard.FWD
- Saito, Koki.MID
Started on Tue 3 Nov v Burnley.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When each team scores
QPR, 15 games. Millwall, 17 games.
Cards and corners
- 10.8corners expected (Millwall 5.0, QPR 5.8; league 10.4)
- Expected yellow cards: 3.8The league figure is 3.7
Latest form
Millwall
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Birmingham | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Derby | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Portsmouth | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Lincoln | 2-2 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Swansea | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Preston | 1-0 | W |
The scores list Millwall first.
Queens Park Rangers
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | v Burnley | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 31 Oct | at Southampton | 1-4 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Swansea | 5-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Birmingham | 0-3 | L |
| Wed 14 Oct | v Derby | 4-1 | W |
| Fri 9 Oct | at West Ham | 1-1 | D |
The scores list QPR first.
Head to head
| Sat 18 Apr 2026 | Championship | Millwall 2-0 QPR | 2-0 | 16 |
| Sat 18 Oct 2025 | Championship | QPR 1-2 Millwall | 0-2 | 11 |
| Sat 1 Feb 2025 | Championship | Millwall 2-1 QPR | 2-1 | 13 |
| Sat 21 Sep 2024 | Championship | QPR 1-1 Millwall | 1-1 | 15 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 11 | Queens Park Rangers | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +5 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich City | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 13 | Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn Rovers | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 18 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November