Middlesbrough vs Swansea City prediction
Our breakdown
In the Championship, Boro sit 1st on 28 points from 14 games. Swansea, 5th with 26 points from 14 matches, trail by 2 points.
Boro's last 6 brought 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 14 scored and 7 conceded. Swansea's 6 latest matches gave 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, with 8 scored and 10 against.
Across the season to date, Boro saw both teams score in 71% of games, with 71% finishing above 2.5 goals. For Swansea, the two rates are 43% and 64%. For expected goals, Boro average 2.04 per game and concede 1.00. Swansea's averages are 1.65 created and 1.29 allowed.
In our results, they met 4 times from August 2024, with Boro taking 2 wins, Swansea 1 and 1 draw. Their newest meeting, on Monday 6 April 2026, ended as Swansea 2-2 Middlesbrough.
A Boro win is the outcome our model favors most, at 53%; the draw is 25% and Swansea 22%. Those numbers come from expected goals: 1.79 for Boro, 1.09 for Swansea.
Middlesbrough 2-1 Swansea City is the predicted score. One exact score is the likeliest of all, 1-1 at 11.6%; inside the result we lean to, 2-1 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Boro v Swansea
| Per game |  Boro |  Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.2 / 3.4 | 4.2 / 5.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| xG for / against | 2.42 / 0.85 | 1.67 / 1.60 |
| Per game | Boro | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.14 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.36 | 1.14 |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 43% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.1 / 4.6 | 4.1 / 4.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| xG for / against | 2.04 / 1.00 | 1.65 / 1.29 |
| Per game | Boro | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.43 | 1.43 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.29 | 1.86 |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 86% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.4 / 4.4 | 4.1 / 6.3 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| xG for / against | 1.95 / 1.03 | 1.47 / 1.56 |
| Per game | Boro | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.2 / 4.5 | 4.5 / 7.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 3.2 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Boro win | 53% | 10/11 |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Swansea win | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Double chance | Boro or draw | 78% | 2/7 |
| Swansea or draw | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Draw no bet | Boro | 70% | 4/9 |
| Swansea | 30% | 12/5 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 4/5 |
| No | 44% | 13/10 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 79% | 1/4 |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 4/5 | |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 5/4 | |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 21/10 | |
| Result and BTTS | Boro and yes | 26% | 29/10 |
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Swansea and yes | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Result and goals | Boro and over 2.5 | 35% | 15/8 |
| Swansea and over 2.5 | 14% | 13/2 | |
| Boro and under 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Swansea and under 2.5 | 9% | 10/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Boro / Boro | 33% | 2/1 |
| Draw / Boro | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 13/2 | |
| Swansea / Swansea | 13% | 7/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 55% | 5/6 |
| Over 10.5 | 44% | 13/10 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 39% | 6/4 |
| Over 4.5 | 24% | 16/5 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance.
Line-up predictions
Boro 3-4-2-1
- Vítek, Radek.GK
- Brittain, Callum.MID
- Borges, Neto.MID
- Malanda, Adilson.DEF
- Phillips, Ashley.DEF
- Ayling, Luke.DEF
- Morris, Aidan.MID
- Berhalter, Sebastian.MID
- Joseph, Kyle.FWD
- Cozier-Duberry, Amario.FWD
- Conway, Tommy.FWD
They started Wed 4 Nov at Wrexham.
Swansea 4-3-3
- Vigouroux, Lawrence.GK
- Lissah, Filip.DEF
- Tymon, Josh.DEF
- Fulton, Jay.MID
- Seelt, Jenson.DEF
- Welsh, Stephen.DEF
- Franco, Gonçalo.MID
- Stamenic, Marko.MID
- Idah, Adam.FWD
- Joseph OpokuFWD
- Widell, Melker.FWD
They started at Portsmouth on Tue 3 Nov.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
When each team scores
Swansea, 15 games; Boro, 17 games.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected 10.2 (league 10.4, Boro 6.0, Swansea 4.2).
- Yellow cards expected 3.2 (league 3.7).
Form in recent games
Middlesbrough
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | at Wrexham | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Charlton | 3-0 | W |
| Fri 23 Oct | at Bolton | 5-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Cardiff | 2-2 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Stoke | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Wolves | 1-0 | W |
Boro scores come first.
Swansea City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Portsmouth | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Blackburn | 4-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at QPR | 0-5 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v West Ham | 0-1 | L |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Millwall | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Norwich | 2-1 | W |
Swansea scores come first.
Head to head
| Mon 6 Apr 2026 | Championship | Swansea 2-2 Middlesbrough | 2-1 | 12 |
| Sat 9 Aug 2025 | Championship | Middlesbrough 1-0 Swansea | 0-0 | 9 |
| Sat 8 Mar 2025 | Championship | Swansea 1-0 Middlesbrough | 1-0 | 11 |
| Sat 10 Aug 2024 | Championship | Middlesbrough 1-0 Swansea | 1-0 | 15 |
The Championship table
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +11 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 | Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November