Middlesbrough vs Bristol City prediction
Analysis from our team
Boro sit 1st in the Championship, 28 points taken from 14 games. Bristol City have 18 points from 14 matches and sit 15th, 10 points behind.
Boro's last 6 gave them 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, 14 goals for and 7 against. Their last 6 matches saw Bristol City win 1, draw 2 and lose 3, with 5 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 71% of Boro matches this season, and 71% finished above 2.5 goals; Bristol City: 57% and 50%. On expected goals, Boro sit at 2.04 created and 1.00 allowed per game; Bristol City are on 1.40 created and 1.40 allowed.
Since August 2024, our results list 4 meetings, with 3 won by Bristol City, 0 by Boro and 1 level. The most recent, Saturday 14 March 2026, ended Middlesbrough 1-1 Bristol City.
At 57% the model rates a Boro win likeliest (the draw 24%, Bristol City 19%), with expected goals of 1.87 for Boro, 0.99 for Bristol City.
We predict Middlesbrough 1-0 Bristol City. Overall, 1-1 leads the exact scores at 11.2%. Within the result we favor, 1-0 ranks as the most likely score.
Match stats for Boro and Bristol City
| Per game |  Boro |  Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.2 / 3.4 | 5.0 / 6.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| xG for / against | 2.42 / 0.85 | 1.47 / 1.24 |
| Per game | Boro | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.14 | 1.14 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.36 | 1.36 |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.1 / 4.6 | 5.1 / 5.7 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| xG for / against | 2.04 / 1.00 | 1.40 / 1.40 |
| Per game | Boro | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.43 | 1.71 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.29 | 1.57 |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.4 / 4.4 | 4.7 / 5.7 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.95 / 1.03 | 1.74 / 1.44 |
| Per game | Boro | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.50 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.75 | 0.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.5 / 2.8 | 2.8 / 7.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.8 | 2.5 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Boro win | 57% | 8/11 |
| Draw | 24% | 16/5 | |
| Bristol City win | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Double chance | Boro or draw | 81% | 2/9 |
| Bristol City or draw | 43% | 11/8 | |
| Draw no bet | Boro | 75% | 1/3 |
| Bristol City | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 5/6 |
| No | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 79% | 2/7 |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 5/6 | |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 6/5 | |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 21/10 | |
| Result and BTTS | Boro and yes | 27% | 11/4 |
| Draw and yes | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Bristol City and yes | 10% | 9/1 | |
| Result and goals | Boro and over 2.5 | 37% | 17/10 |
| Bristol City and over 2.5 | 11% | 8/1 | |
| Boro and under 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Bristol City and under 2.5 | 8% | 12/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Boro / Boro | 36% | 7/4 |
| Draw / Boro | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Bristol City / Bristol City | 11% | 17/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 61% | 4/6 |
| Over 10.5 | 50% | evens | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 40% | 6/4 |
| Over 4.5 | 25% | 3/1 |
A fair price is 1 divided by our chance.
The line-ups we expect
Boro 3-4-2-1
- Vítek, Radek.GK
- Brittain, Callum.MID
- Borges, Neto.MID
- Malanda, Adilson.DEF
- Phillips, Ashley.DEF
- Ayling, Luke.DEF
- Morris, Aidan.MID
- Berhalter, Sebastian.MID
- Joseph, Kyle.FWD
- Cozier-Duberry, Amario.FWD
- Conway, Tommy.FWD
They began at Wrexham on Wed 4 Nov.
Bristol City 4-2-3-1
- Collins, Bradley.GK
- Tanner, George.DEF
- Pring, Cameron.DEF
- Williams, Joe.MID
- McNally, Luke.DEF
- Eissat, Lisav.DEF
- Cardines, Rio.MID
- Knight, Jason.MID
- Tolaj, Lorent.FWD
- Bell, Sam.MID
- Twine, Scott.MID
They started Wed 4 Nov v Wolves.
Chances of correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Boro have 17 games, and Bristol City, 15.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 10.8 totalBristol City 4.3 and Boro 6.4; the league figure is 10.4
- Expected yellow cards are 3.3 (league 3.7).
Form guide
Middlesbrough
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | at Wrexham | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Charlton | 3-0 | W |
| Fri 23 Oct | at Bolton | 5-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Cardiff | 2-2 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Stoke | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Wolves | 1-0 | W |
Scores show Boro first.
Bristol City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | v Wolves | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 31 Oct | at Bolton | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Stoke | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Sheffield United | 0-1 | L |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Blackburn | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Charlton | 1-1 | D |
Scores show Bristol City first.
Head to head
| Sat 14 Mar 2026 | Championship | Middlesbrough 1-1 Bristol City | 0-0 | 13 |
| Sat 20 Dec 2025 | Championship | Bristol City 2-0 Middlesbrough | 1-0 | 16 |
| Fri 21 Feb 2025 | Championship | Bristol City 2-1 Middlesbrough | 0-1 | 5 |
| Sat 19 Oct 2024 | Championship | Middlesbrough 0-2 Bristol City | 0-2 | 7 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +11 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn Rovers | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 | Bristol City | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November