Lincoln City vs Birmingham City prediction
Margin removed, the market has Lincoln City 29%, the draw 27% and Birmingham 44% (average of 6 UK bookmakers).
The way the model saw it
In the Championship, Lincoln City sit 17th, on 15 points from 14 games. Birmingham sit 2nd on 26 points from 14 games, 11 points clear.
Lincoln City finished their last 6 with 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses. Their record included 8 scored and 14 conceded. Birmingham's last 6 games gave 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 12 scored and 4 conceded.
So far this season, both teams scored in 50% of Lincoln City matches, and 58% went over 2.5 goals. Birmingham's figures are 58% and 67%. Expected goals put Lincoln City at 1.32 each game with 1.46 allowed, while Birmingham sit at 1.70 and allow 1.38.
Since August 2024 our results show 2 meetings: 0 wins for Lincoln City, 2 for Birmingham, and 0 finished level. Their most recent meeting, on Saturday 8 March 2025, ended Birmingham 1-0 Lincoln.
Our model rates a Lincoln City win the likeliest outcome, 37%, with the draw on 27% and Birmingham 37%. The expected goals behind it: Lincoln City 1.40, Birmingham 1.40. Take out the margin and UK bookmakers price it at 29%; our rating sits above the market.
We tip Lincoln City 2-1 Birmingham City. Of all exact scores, 1-1 at 12.6% is the most likely one, and 2-1 leads the scores inside the outcome we favor.
Stats for Lincoln City v Birmingham
| Per game |  Lincoln City |  Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% |
| Corners won / conceded | 2.2 / 6.2 | 4.6 / 4.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.46 / 1.88 | 1.67 / 1.56 |
| Per game | Lincoln City | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.08 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.5 / 7.9 | 5.5 / 4.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| xG for / against | 1.32 / 1.46 | 1.70 / 1.38 |
| Per game | Lincoln City | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.17 | 0.83 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.0 / 5.5 | 6.2 / 5.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.72 / 1.45 | 1.79 / 1.31 |
| Per game | Lincoln City | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 6.0 | 6.0 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 0.5 | 3.0 |
UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Lincoln City win | 37% | 7/4 | 5/2 Betway | +24.7% |
| Draw | 27% | 11/4 | 5/2 bet365 | -6.5% | |
| Birmingham win | 37% | 7/4 | 6/5 Sky Bet | -21.3% | |
| Double chance | Lincoln City or draw | 63% | 4/7 | ||
| Birmingham or draw | 63% | 4/7 | |||
| Draw no bet | Lincoln City | 50% | evens | ||
| Birmingham | 50% | evens | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 8/11 | ||
| No | 43% | 11/8 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 78% | 2/7 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 10/11 | 10/11 bet365 | +1.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 11/10 | 10/11 bet365 | -10.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 9/4 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Lincoln City and yes | 19% | 9/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Birmingham and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |||
| Result and goals | Lincoln City and over 2.5 | 23% | 10/3 | ||
| Birmingham and over 2.5 | 23% | 10/3 | |||
| Lincoln City and under 2.5 | 14% | 13/2 | |||
| Birmingham and under 2.5 | 14% | 13/2 | |||
| Half time / full time | Lincoln City / Lincoln City | 22% | 7/2 | ||
| Birmingham / Birmingham | 22% | 7/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 15% | 6/1 | |||
| Draw / Lincoln City | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 56% | 4/5 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 45% | 6/5 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 49% | 21/20 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 33% | 2/1 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. football-data.co.uk provides the bookmaker prices, and it lists match odds along with over/under 2.5 only. Our edge shows the cases where we have both figures.
Line-ups for the starting teams
Lincoln City 4-2-3-1
- Player: George Wickens.GK
- Player: Andrei Coubis.DEF
- Player: Adam Reach.DEF
- Player: Ivan Varfolomeev.MID
- Player: Ayodeji Elerewe.DEF
- Player: Sonny Bradley.DEF
- Player: Recco Hackett-Fairchild.MID
- Player: Yunus Konak.MID
- Player: Mikkel Ladefoged.FWD
- Player: Ben House.MID
- Player: Dom Jefferies.MID
Birmingham 4-2-3-1
- Player: James Beadle.GK
- Laird, Ethan.DEF
- Cochrane, Alex.DEF
- Solís, Jhon.MID
- Neumann, Phil.DEF
- Klarer, Christoph.DEF
- Roberts, Patrick.MID
- Iwata, Tomoki.MID
- Priske, August.FWD
- Stansfield, Jay.MID
- Millar, Liam.MID
ESPN supplied the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring by minute
Lincoln City, 17 games covered. Birmingham, 16 games. Goals by minute come from ESPN match events this season.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 10.3 overallThe league figure is 10.4; Lincoln City 4.3, Birmingham 6.0
- Yellow cards expected: 3.8 (league 3.7).
Latest form
Lincoln City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | v Burnley | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Millwall | 2-2 | D |
| Wed 14 Oct | v West Ham | 0-6 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Sheffield United | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Swansea | 1-2 | L |
| Tue 15 Sep | at Bristol City | 1-0 | W |
Read the scores with Lincoln City first.
Birmingham City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | at Cardiff | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v QPR | 3-0 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Preston | 4-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at West Brom | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Middlesbrough | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 12 Sep | at Derby | 2-1 | W |
Read the scores with Birmingham first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8 Mar 2025 | League One | Birmingham 1-0 Lincoln | 0-0 | 9 |
| Sat 19 Oct 2024 | League One | Lincoln 1-3 Birmingham | 1-1 | 13 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +13 | 28 |
| 2 | Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 4 |  Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 18 |  Cardiff City | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
ESPN provides the standings, as of Wednesday 4 November.