Leicester City vs Stevenage prediction
Removing the bookmakers' margin gives Leicester 55%, a draw 23% and Stevenage 21%. These figures are an average across 6 UK bookmakers.
What the model predicted
In the League One, Leicester sit 10th on 19 points from 13 games. Stevenage sit 16th on 16 points from 12 games, 3 points behind.
Leicester's last 6 games gave them 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 12 scored and 7 conceded. Stevenage's last 6 games brought 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, with 6 goals for and 5 against.
Across Leicester games this season, 58% featured both teams scoring and 67% finished over 2.5 goals. Stevenage's numbers are 45% and 45%. By expected goals, Leicester make 1.67 a game and concede 1.27, while Stevenage make 1.09 and concede 1.06.
A Leicester win is the model's likeliest result at 51% (draw 28%, Stevenage 22%). That comes from expected goals of 1.50 (Leicester) and 0.90 (Stevenage). With their margin removed, UK bookmakers put the chance at 55%, which is higher than our rating.
Our prediction is Leicester City 1-0 Stevenage. One exact score stands out as likeliest, 1-1 at 13.0%; within the result we lean to, 1-0 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Leicester v Stevenage
| Per game |  Leicester |  Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.6 / 6.4 | 4.4 / 6.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 2.08 / 0.99 | 1.26 / 1.05 |
| Per game | Leicester | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 11 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.67 | 1.36 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.42 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 27% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.7 / 5.8 | 4.1 / 5.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.67 / 1.27 | 1.09 / 1.06 |
| Per game | Leicester | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.8 / 5.8 | 2.8 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.82 / 1.22 | 1.08 / 1.17 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Leicester win | 51% | evens | 8/11 Betway | -12.6% |
| Draw | 28% | 5/2 | 3/1 bet365 | +10.5% | |
| Stevenage win | 22% | 7/2 | 4/1 bet365 | +3.7% | |
| Double chance | Leicester or draw | 78% | 2/7 | ||
| Stevenage or draw | 49% | evens | |||
| Draw no bet | Leicester | 70% | 4/9 | ||
| Stevenage | 30% | 9/4 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 11/10 | ||
| No | 53% | 10/11 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 70% | 4/9 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 11/8 | 4/6 bet365 | -28.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 8/11 | 6/5 bet365 | +22.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 7/2 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Leicester and yes | 20% | 4/1 | ||
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Stevenage and yes | 9% | 10/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Leicester and over 2.5 | 27% | 11/4 | ||
| Stevenage and over 2.5 | 11% | 17/2 | |||
| Leicester and under 2.5 | 23% | 10/3 | |||
| Stevenage and under 2.5 | 11% | 8/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Leicester / Leicester | 31% | 9/4 | ||
| Draw / Leicester | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Stevenage / Stevenage | 12% | 7/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 61% | 4/6 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 50% | evens | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 42% | 11/8 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 26% | 11/4 |
Our chance, divided into 1, gives the fair price. Bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk. That site carries match odds plus over/under 2.5 only; edge marks where we have both numbers.
Line-ups for the start of the match
Leicester 4-1-4-1
- McCarthy, Alex.GK
- O'Hora, Warren.DEF
- Thomas, Luke.DEF
- Lundstram, John.MID
- Souttar, Harry.DEF
- Okoli, Caleb.DEF
- Alves, Will.MID
- Braybrooke, Sammy.MID
- Riis Jakobsen, Emil.FWD
- Page, Louis.MID
- Doyle, Kamari.MID
Stevenage 4-4-1-1
- Setford, Tommy.GK
- Vancooten, Terence.DEF
- Earley, Saxon.DEF
- Thompson, Louis.MID
- Casey, Kaelan.DEF
- Piergianni, Carl.DEF
- Sanderson, Oliver.MID
- Phillips, Daniel.MID
- Magennis, Josh.FWD
- Broggio, Ben.FWD
- Patterson, Phoenix.MID
The starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11, come from ESPN.
Chances for each exact score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
For Leicester, 15 games. For Stevenage, 14 games. This season's ESPN match events show goals scored by minute.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 10.8 (Stevenage 4.8, Leicester 6.0; league 10.4).
- Yellow cards expected: 3.4 (league 3.7, adjusted for the referee).
Form guide
Leicester City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 27 Oct | v Wigan | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Luton | 1-2 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Bromley | 4-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Doncaster | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Peterborough | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Barnsley | 1-1 | D |
Leicester is listed first in the scores.
Stevenage
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | v Milton Keynes Dons | 0-1 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Plymouth | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Bradford | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Wigan | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Leyton Orient | 0-1 | L |
| Thu 10 Sep | v Luton | 2-1 | W |
Stevenage is listed first in the scores.
League One table
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |  Cambridge United | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +0 | 21 |
| 9 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 | Leicester City | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Mansfield Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Wycombe Wanderers | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | +5 | 17 |
| 15 |  Burton Albion | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 16 | Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 |  Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 |  AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 13 |
ESPN supplies the standings, as of Wednesday 4 November.