Kidderminster Harriers vs Doncaster Rovers prediction

Kid'minster

15:00Saturday 7 November

Doncaster

FA Cup
Aggborough Stadium is the venue.
Our feed gives no referee name so far.
No live UK TV due to the Saturday blackout rules

0-1predicted score (15%)

41%both teams score

39%over 2.5 goals

0.73-1.52expected goals

17%27%55%

The analysis we provide

This FA Cup match pairs a National League team with a League One team, with a gap of 2 divisions. The model uses one scale to rate both clubs, drawing on league matches and earlier cup meetings.

Over Kid'minster's last 6, they won 0, drew 3 and lost 3, with 4 scored and 8 conceded. In Doncaster's last 6, they won 2, drew 0 and lost 4, and their goal count was 6 scored against 13 conceded.

This season, both teams scored in 50% of Kid'minster matches, and 38% of those matches saw more than 2.5 goals. Doncaster's figures are 54% and 46%.

Our model expects 0.73 goals from Kid'minster and 1.52 from Doncaster, so it rates a Doncaster win at 55% as the likeliest result (Kid'minster 17%, the draw 27%).

Our prediction: Kidderminster Harriers 0-1 Doncaster Rovers.

Stats: Kid'minster v Doncaster

Per game	Kid'minster	Doncaster
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	0.60	1.00
Goals conceded a game	1.00	2.60
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	60%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Corners won / conceded	3.8 / 5.0	5.6 / 5.2
Yellow cards a game	2.4	2.4

Per game	Kid'minster	Doncaster
Games	16	13
Goals scored a game	1.06	1.08
Goals conceded a game	1.00	1.69
Both teams scored	50%	54%
Over 2.5 goals	38%	46%
Clean sheets	38%	31%
Corners won / conceded	3.8 / 5.2	5.0 / 6.2
Yellow cards a game	2.9	2.2

Per game	Kid'minster	Doncaster
Games	8	7
Goals scored a game	1.00	1.14
Goals conceded a game	0.75	2.29
Both teams scored	50%	71%
Over 2.5 goals	12%	71%
Clean sheets	38%	14%
Corners won / conceded	5.2 / 3.9	5.1 / 6.4
Yellow cards a game	3.1	2.4

Market fair prices


Match result	Kid'minster win	17%	5/1
	Draw	27%	11/4
	Doncaster win	55%	4/5
Double chance	Kid'minster or draw	45%	5/4
	Doncaster or draw	83%	1/5
Draw no bet	Kid'minster	24%	10/3
	Doncaster	76%	3/10
Both teams to score	Yes	41%	11/8
	No	59%	8/11
Goals	Over 1.5	67%	1/2
	Over 2.5	39%	6/4
	Under 2.5	61%	4/6
	Over 3.5	19%	4/1
Result and BTTS	Kid'minster and yes	7%	14/1
	Draw and yes	16%	5/1
	Doncaster and yes	19%	9/2
Result and goals	Kid'minster and over 2.5	7%	12/1
	Doncaster and over 2.5	28%	5/2
	Kid'minster and under 2.5	10%	9/1
	Doncaster and under 2.5	27%	11/4
Half time / full time	Doncaster / Doncaster	34%	15/8
	Draw / Doncaster	20%	4/1
	Draw / Draw	18%	9/2
	Kid'minster / Kid'minster	9%	10/1
Corners	Over 9.5	49%	21/20
	Over 10.5	38%	13/8
Cards	Over 3.5	59%	8/11
	Over 4.5	42%	11/8

Match result

Kid'minster win

17%

5/1

Draw

27%

11/4

Doncaster win

55%

4/5

Double chance

Kid'minster or draw

45%

5/4

Doncaster or draw

83%

1/5

Draw no bet

Kid'minster

24%

10/3

Doncaster

76%

3/10

Both teams to score

Yes

41%

11/8

59%

8/11

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

1/2

Over 2.5

39%

6/4

Under 2.5

61%

4/6

Over 3.5

19%

4/1

Result and BTTS

Kid'minster and yes

14/1

Draw and yes

16%

5/1

Doncaster and yes

19%

9/2

Result and goals

Kid'minster and over 2.5

12/1

Doncaster and over 2.5

28%

5/2

Kid'minster and under 2.5

10%

9/1

Doncaster and under 2.5

27%

11/4

Half time / full time

Doncaster / Doncaster

34%

15/8

Draw / Doncaster

20%

4/1

Draw / Draw

18%

9/2

Kid'minster / Kid'minster

10/1

Corners

Over 9.5

49%

21/20

Over 10.5

38%

13/8

Cards

Over 3.5

59%

8/11

Over 4.5

42%

11/8

Our fair price comes from dividing 1 by the chance we give it. Our feed has no UK bookmaker prices for this match, as football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition.

Line-ups we predict

Kid'minster 4-4-2

Wint, Jack.GK
Crompton, Ben.DEF
Faakye, Richard.DEF
Davis, David.MID
MacDonald, Angus.DEF
Harries, Cian.DEF
Brogan, Max.MID
Hargreaves, Cameron.MID
Walker, Lewis.FWD
Stewart, Callum.FWD
Kouhyar, Maziar.MID

Sat 31 Oct at Solihull: these players started.

Doncaster 4-2-3-1

Simkin, Tommy.GK
Sterry, Jamie.DEF
Senior, Jack.DEF
Broadbent, George.MID
Grehan, Sean.DEF
Byrne, Neill.DEF
Thomas, Jordan.MID
Bailey, Owen.MID
May, Alfie.FWD
Hutchinson, Isaac.MID
Ayinde, Leon.MID

They started at MK Dons on Sat 31 Oct.

For other clubs, ESPN lists the eleven who started their latest match. Once the teams are named, ESPN's confirmed line-ups replace these about an hour before kick-off.

Chances for the correct score

Each score's chance in %, with Kid'minster goals listed down the side and Doncaster goals across
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11.2	15.3	12.1	6.2	2.3	0.7
1	7.0	12.4	8.9	4.5	1.7	0.5
2	2.8	4.3	3.3	1.7	0.6	0.2
3	0.7	1.0	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.0
4	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

When the goals come

The sample covers Kid'minster, 16 games, and Doncaster, 15 games. This season's goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events.

Cards and corners

Corners expected: 9.7 in total, with Kid'minster 4.9 and Doncaster 4.7 against a league 10.0.
Yellow cards expected come to 4.3, compared with 3.8 across the league.

Form from recent matches