Harrogate Town vs AFC Fylde prediction
Our breakdown
Two National League sides meet in an FA Cup tie. One scale combines earlier cup ties plus league games, and the model rates both clubs on it.
Harrogate's last 6 games gave them 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 10 scored and 6 conceded. In AFC Fylde’s last 6, there were 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses. They scored 9 goals and conceded 11.
Harrogate games this season included both teams scoring in 69%, and 81% finished over 2.5 goals. The AFC Fylde numbers are 69% and 75%.
Since August 2024, our results show 1 meeting: Harrogate 0 wins, AFC Fylde 1 win and 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Tuesday 15 September 2026, when Harrogate 1-2 Fylde was the result.
Based on 1.86 expected goals for Harrogate and 1.25 for AFC Fylde, the model gives a Harrogate win the highest chance at 51%. It puts the draw at 24% and AFC Fylde 25%.
The predicted score is Harrogate Town 2-1 AFC Fylde. At 11.0%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score. For the result we lean toward, 2-1 is the most likely score.
Stats: Harrogate v AFC Fylde
| Per game |  Harrogate |  AFC Fylde |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.6 / 5.0 | 3.6 / 4.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Per game | Harrogate | AFC Fylde |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.12 | 1.88 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.44 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 19% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.1 / 4.8 | 4.8 / 4.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Per game | Harrogate | AFC Fylde |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.88 | 1.88 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Both teams scored | 88% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 88% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 12% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.8 / 4.1 | 4.8 / 4.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Per game | Harrogate | AFC Fylde |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.0 / 4.0 | 4.0 / 6.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Harrogate win | 51% | evens |
| Draw | 24% | 10/3 | |
| AFC Fylde win | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Double chance | Harrogate or draw | 75% | 1/3 |
| AFC Fylde or draw | 49% | 21/20 | |
| Draw no bet | Harrogate | 67% | 1/2 |
| AFC Fylde | 33% | 2/1 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 4/6 |
| No | 39% | 6/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 82% | 2/9 |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 4/6 | |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 13/8 | |
| Result and BTTS | Harrogate and yes | 27% | 11/4 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |
| AFC Fylde and yes | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Result and goals | Harrogate and over 2.5 | 36% | 7/4 |
| AFC Fylde and over 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Harrogate and under 2.5 | 15% | 11/2 | |
| AFC Fylde and under 2.5 | 8% | 11/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Harrogate / Harrogate | 32% | 2/1 |
| Draw / Harrogate | 16% | 5/1 | |
| AFC Fylde / AFC Fylde | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 7/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 51% | evens |
| Over 10.5 | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 49% | 21/20 |
| Over 4.5 | 33% | 2/1 |
A fair price is 1 divided by our chance. Our feed doesn't hold UK bookmaker prices for this match, since football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition.
The line-ups we predict
Harrogate 3-5-2
- Hutchinson, Luke.GK
- Payne, Lewis.MID
- Craig, Michael.MID
- Chaplin, Archie.DEF
- Dreyer, Sam.DEF
- Cass, Lewis.DEF
- Williams, Morgan.MID
- Taylor, Ellis.MID
- Hmami, Josh.FWD
- Dolaghan, Brad.FWD
- Bristow, Ethan.MID
They started at Forest Green on Sat 31 Oct.
AFC Fylde 4-2-3-1
- Pickford, George.GK
- Drewe, Aaron.DEF
- Broad, Harvey.DEF
- Merrie, Christopher.MID
- Lancaster, Will.DEF
- Whelan, Corey.DEF
- Thomas, Luca.MID
- Whelan, Tom.MID
- Matthews-Lewis, Millar.FWD
- McCormick, Luke.MID
- Malcolm, Kyrell.MID
They started Fri 30 Oct against Hornchurh.
For other clubs, these are the eleven who started their most recent match, according to ESPN. Once ESPN confirms the teams, they replace these line-ups about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for each exact score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
Harrogate, 16 games and AFC Fylde, 16 games. This season's goals by minute come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Expected corners: 9.8The league figure is 10.0, with Harrogate 4.8 and AFC Fylde 5.0
- Yellow cards expected: 3.8(league 3.8)
Latest form
Harrogate Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Forest Green | 2-2 | D |
| Wed 28 Oct | at Carlisle | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Sutton | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Woking | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Hornchurch | 3-0 | W |
| Tue 29 Sep | at Hartlepool | 1-0 | W |
Read the score with Harrogate first.
AFC Fylde
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 30 Oct | v Hornchurch | 3-1 | W |
| Tue 27 Oct | v Hartlepool | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Boreham Wood | 0-4 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Scunthorpe | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Southend | 1-3 | L |
| Tue 29 Sep | v Carlisle | 0-2 | L |
Read the score with AFC Fylde first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 15 Sep 2026 | National League | Harrogate 1-2 Fylde | 0-0 | 10 |