Gillingham vs Barrow prediction
Our breakdown
This FA Cup tie pairs a League Two side with a National League side, 1 division apart. Both clubs are rated on the same scale, which uses league games and earlier cup ties.
For Gillingham, the last 6 matches brought 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 9 goals for and 10 against. In Barrow's last 6, they won 5, drew 1 and lost 0, scoring 15 and conceding 7.
So far this season, 57% of Gillingham games saw both teams score and 57% had over 2.5 goals, while Barrow's figures were 67% and 67%.
Since August 2024, our results list 4 meetings. Gillingham took 2, Barrow took 1 and the remaining 1 was level. Their most recent meeting, on Saturday 28 February 2026, ended with Barrow 0-1 Gillingham.
With expected goals at 1.62 for Gillingham and 1.16 for Barrow, the model sees a Gillingham win as most likely at 47%. The draw is 26%, and Barrow 27%.
Our prediction is Gillingham 2-1 Barrow. At 12.3%, 1-1 has the highest chance of any exact score. Within the result we favor, 2-1 is the strongest score.
Statistics: Gillingham v Barrow
| Per game |  Gillingham |  Barrow |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.6 / 6.0 | 5.6 / 3.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Per game | Gillingham | Barrow |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 15 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.43 | 1.73 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.36 | 1.27 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.6 / 5.6 | 6.1 / 4.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Per game | Gillingham | Barrow |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.14 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.29 | 1.62 |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.7 / 4.4 | 6.2 / 4.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.7 | 2.8 |
| Per game | Gillingham | Barrow |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 3.2 | 3.2 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Gillingham win | 47% | 11/10 |
| Draw | 26% | 11/4 | |
| Barrow win | 27% | 11/4 | |
| Double chance | Gillingham or draw | 73% | 4/11 |
| Barrow or draw | 53% | 10/11 | |
| Draw no bet | Gillingham | 64% | 4/7 |
| Barrow | 36% | 7/4 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 4/5 |
| No | 44% | 5/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | 3/10 |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 10/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 9/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Gillingham and yes | 23% | 10/3 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Barrow and yes | 14% | 13/2 | |
| Result and goals | Gillingham and over 2.5 | 30% | 9/4 |
| Barrow and over 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Gillingham and under 2.5 | 17% | 9/2 | |
| Barrow and under 2.5 | 11% | 17/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Gillingham / Gillingham | 29% | 5/2 |
| Draw / Gillingham | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Barrow / Barrow | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 49% | 21/20 |
| Over 10.5 | 38% | 13/8 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Over 4.5 | 46% | 6/5 |
Our fair price is 1 divided by our chance. Our feed has no bookmaker prices from the UK for this match. football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition.
Line-ups we expect
Gillingham 3-4-3
- Wright, Oliver.GK
- Freeman, Nick.MID
- Mcmanus, Conor.MID
- Dobbs, Logan.DEF
- Beckles, Omar.DEF
- Smith, Andy.DEF
- Brophy, James.MID
- Coleman, Ethan.MID
- Sillah, Lamin.FWD
- Waldock, Harry.FWD
- Hale, Ronan.FWD
At Shrewsbury, they started Sat 31 Oct.
Barrow 4-1-3-2
- Winterbottom, Ben.GK
- Oakley, Marcel.DEF
- Latty-Fairweather, Thierry.DEF
- Benjamin, Xavier.DEF
- Raphael-Pijus OtegbayoDEF
- Kalambayi, Paul.DEF
- Allen, Arian.MID
- Harper, Rekeem.MID
- Cameron, Innes.FWD
- Thompson, Seb.FWD
- Ward, Keaton.MID
They started Sat 31 Oct against Eastleigh.
For other clubs, ESPN lists the eleven who started in their most recent match. Once ESPN confirms the teams, they replace these line-ups about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
For Gillingham, 15 games. For Barrow, 15 games. This season's goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events.
Corners and card counts
- We expect 9.7 corners altogether, with Gillingham 4.2 and Barrow 5.5, and the league at 9.9.
- 4.5yellow cards expected, with the league on 3.7
How each side has done recently
Gillingham
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Shrewsbury | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Grimsby | 1-4 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Port Vale | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Accrington | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Rotherham | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Newport County | 0-0 | D |
Gillingham's score is listed first.
Barrow
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Eastleigh | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 27 Oct | at Halifax | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Tamworth | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Wealdstone | 2-1 | W |
| Tue 29 Sep | v Scunthorpe | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Southend | 4-2 | W |
Barrow's score is listed first.
Head to head
| Sat 28 Feb 2026 | League Two | Barrow 0-1 Gillingham | 0-0 | 11 |
| Sat 13 Dec 2025 | League Two | Gillingham 2-2 Barrow | 2-0 | 6 |
| Sat 8 Feb 2025 | League Two | Barrow 3-0 Gillingham | 0-0 | 6 |
| Sat 28 Sep 2024 | League Two | Gillingham 2-0 Barrow | 1-0 | 10 |