Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury Town prediction
Our breakdown
This FA Cup tie pits a National League side against a League Two side, 1 division apart. Using league games and past cup ties, the model puts both clubs on the same scale.
Eastleigh's 6 most recent matches: 1 win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, 7 goals scored and 11 conceded. Shrewsbury's last 6 matches brought 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 10 scored and 9 against.
So far this season, both teams scored in 69% of Eastleigh matches and 44% of those finished above 2.5 goals; Shrewsbury's figures are 50% and 50%.
The likeliest result in the model is a Shrewsbury win at 52%, with Eastleigh 23% and the draw 26%. These odds come from expected goals: 1.03 for Eastleigh, 1.67 for Shrewsbury.
Score we expect: Eastleigh 0-1 Shrewsbury Town. A 1-1 scoreline tops the list at 12.3%. In the result we favor, 0-1 is the likeliest scoreline.
Stats for Eastleigh v Shrewsbury
| Per game |  Eastleigh |  Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 2.6 / 5.8 | 6.0 / 3.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 2.8 |
| Per game | Eastleigh | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 16 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.19 | 1.21 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.56 | 1.57 |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 21% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.8 / 5.3 | 5.6 / 4.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.5 | 2.9 |
| Per game | Eastleigh | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.75 | 1.29 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.38 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 88% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 4.8 | 5.3 / 4.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.1 | 3.6 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Eastleigh win | 23% | 7/2 |
| Draw | 26% | 3/1 | |
| Shrewsbury win | 52% | 10/11 | |
| Double chance | Eastleigh or draw | 48% | 21/20 |
| Shrewsbury or draw | 77% | 2/7 | |
| Draw no bet | Eastleigh | 30% | 9/4 |
| Shrewsbury | 70% | 4/9 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 10/11 |
| No | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 76% | 1/3 |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | evens | |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | evens | |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 5/2 | |
| Result and BTTS | Eastleigh and yes | 11% | 8/1 |
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Shrewsbury and yes | 23% | 10/3 | |
| Result and goals | Eastleigh and over 2.5 | 13% | 7/1 |
| Shrewsbury and over 2.5 | 32% | 9/4 | |
| Eastleigh and under 2.5 | 10% | 9/1 | |
| Shrewsbury and under 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Shrewsbury / Shrewsbury | 32% | 2/1 |
| Draw / Shrewsbury | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Eastleigh / Eastleigh | 13% | 7/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 43% | 11/8 |
| Over 10.5 | 33% | 2/1 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 47% | 11/10 |
| Over 4.5 | 31% | 9/4 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. We don't have UK bookmaker prices for this match in our feed, because football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition.
Line-ups we predict
Eastleigh 4-2-3-1
- Townsend, Nick.GK
- Bakare, Ibrahim.DEF
- Johnson, Reece.DEF
- Cousins, Jordan.MID
- Eweka, Temitope.DEF
- Dobson-Ventura, Tommy.DEF
- Rankine, Dion.MID
- Williams, Jonny.MID
- Blair, Aaron.FWD
- Hawkins, Oliver.MID
- Dickov, Max.MID
They started at Barrow on Sat 31 Oct.
Shrewsbury 3-4-1-2
- Brook, Will.GK
- Hoole, Luca.MID
- Berkoe, Kevin.MID
- Ruffels, Joshua.DEF
- Boyle, William.DEF
- Stubbs, Sam.DEF
- Sang, Thomas.MID
- Gray, Will.MID
- McMahon-Brown, Kian.MID
- Lloyd, George.FWD
- Davison, Josh.FWD
They were in the starting eleven Sat 31 Oct v Gillingham.
For other clubs, we show the eleven players who started their most recent match, as listed by ESPN. These line-ups are replaced by ESPN's confirmed teams once those are named, about an hour ahead of kick-off.
Chances for each scoreline
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When each side scores
Eastleigh, 16 games and Shrewsbury, 16 games. This season's goals scored by minute, taken from ESPN match events.
Corners plus cards
- Corners expected 9.2 (league 10.0; Eastleigh 4.0, then Shrewsbury 5.1).
- We expect 3.6 yellow cards, with the league figure at 3.8.
Form over recent matches
Eastleigh
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Barrow | 1-1 | D |
| Wed 28 Oct | at Forest Green | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Boston Utd | 4-2 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Hornchurch | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Woking | 1-3 | L |
| Wed 30 Sep | v Southend | 1-1 | D |
Read Eastleigh's score first.
Shrewsbury Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Gillingham | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Rotherham | 3-3 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Crawley Town | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Bristol Rvs | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Exeter | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Grimsby | 2-1 | W |
Shrewsbury's score is listed first here.