Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian prediction

Dundee

17:45Saturday 21 November

Hearts

Scottish Premiership
The match is at The Scot Foam Stadium, Dens Park.

1-2predicted score (9%)

58%both teams score

56%over 2.5 goals

1.23-1.69expected goals

27%25%48%

Our breakdown

In the Scottish Premiership, Dundee sit 5th, earning 17 points from 11 games. Hearts sit 3rd on 20 points from 11 games, 3 points clear.

Dundee's last 6 games brought 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 11 scored and 9 conceded. Hearts' last 6 show 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 12 scored and 12 conceded.

This season, 73% of Dundee games featured both teams scoring and 64% had more than 2.5 goals; Hearts stand at 73% and 82%. Dundee's expected goals stand at 1.44 created and 1.66 allowed per game; Hearts sit at 1.75 created and 1.56 allowed.

Since August 2024 our results list 8 meetings: 2 won by Dundee, 6 by Hearts and 0 ending level. Their most recent clash, dated Sunday 6 September 2026, finished Hearts 2-1 Dundee.

At 48% (Dundee 27%, the draw 25%), a Hearts win comes out likeliest in the model, which uses 1.23 expected goals for Dundee and 1.69 for Hearts.

Our predicted score is Dundee 1-2 Heart of Midlothian. One exact score stands above the rest, 1-1 at 11.9%; within the result we lean to, 1-2 is the likeliest score.

Stats for Dundee v Hearts

Per game	Dundee	Hearts
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	2.00	2.20
Goals conceded a game	1.40	2.00
Both teams scored	100%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	100%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Corners won / conceded	6.8 / 5.0	4.8 / 4.0
Yellow cards a game	1.2	2.4
xG for / against	1.65 / 1.67	1.83 / 1.72

Per game	Dundee	Hearts
Games	11	11
Goals scored a game	1.55	2.18
Goals conceded a game	1.18	1.55
Both teams scored	73%	73%
Over 2.5 goals	64%	82%
Clean sheets	18%	27%
Corners won / conceded	5.1 / 6.2	6.5 / 3.8
Yellow cards a game	1.5	1.9
xG for / against	1.44 / 1.66	1.75 / 1.56

Per game	Dundee	Hearts
Games	6	6
Goals scored a game	1.83	1.50
Goals conceded a game	1.17	2.17
Both teams scored	83%	83%
Over 2.5 goals	67%	67%
Clean sheets	17%	17%
Corners won / conceded	4.8 / 5.7	5.3 / 4.7
Yellow cards a game	0.8	2.3
xG for / against	1.72 / 1.53	1.40 / 2.02

Per game	Dundee	Hearts
Games	8	8
Goals scored a game	0.62	2.12
Goals conceded a game	2.12	0.62
Both teams scored	25%	25%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%
Clean sheets	12%	62%
Corners won / conceded	3.6 / 7.5	7.5 / 3.6
Yellow cards a game	2.6	1.5
xG for / against	0.51 / 1.87	1.87 / 0.51

Fair prices for each market


Match result	Dundee win	27%	11/4
	Draw	25%	3/1
	Hearts win	48%	11/10
Double chance	Dundee or draw	52%	10/11
	Hearts or draw	73%	4/11
Draw no bet	Dundee	36%	7/4
	Hearts	64%	4/7
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	8/11
	No	42%	7/5
Goals	Over 1.5	80%	1/4
	Over 2.5	56%	4/5
	Under 2.5	44%	5/4
	Over 3.5	34%	2/1
Result and BTTS	Dundee and yes	15%	6/1
	Draw and yes	19%	4/1
	Hearts and yes	24%	3/1
Result and goals	Dundee and over 2.5	17%	5/1
	Hearts and over 2.5	31%	11/5
	Dundee and under 2.5	10%	9/1
	Hearts and under 2.5	16%	5/1
Half time / full time	Hearts / Hearts	30%	23/10
	Dundee / Dundee	16%	5/1
	Draw / Hearts	15%	11/2
	Draw / Draw	14%	13/2
Corners	Over 9.5	55%	4/5
	Over 10.5	44%	5/4
Cards	Over 3.5	52%	10/11
	Over 4.5	35%	9/5

Match result

Dundee win

27%

11/4

Draw

25%

3/1

Hearts win

48%

11/10

Double chance

Dundee or draw

52%

10/11

Hearts or draw

73%

4/11

Draw no bet

Dundee

36%

7/4

Hearts

64%

4/7

Both teams to score

Yes

58%

8/11

42%

7/5

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

1/4

Over 2.5

56%

4/5

Under 2.5

44%

5/4

Over 3.5

34%

2/1

Result and BTTS

Dundee and yes

15%

6/1

Draw and yes

19%

4/1

Hearts and yes

24%

3/1

Result and goals

Dundee and over 2.5

17%

5/1

Hearts and over 2.5

31%

11/5

Dundee and under 2.5

10%

9/1

Hearts and under 2.5

16%

5/1

Half time / full time

Hearts / Hearts

30%

23/10

Dundee / Dundee

16%

5/1

Draw / Hearts

15%

11/2

Draw / Draw

14%

13/2

Corners

Over 9.5

55%

4/5

Over 10.5

44%

5/4

Cards

Over 3.5

52%

10/11

Over 4.5

35%

9/5

A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance.

Our predicted line-ups

Dundee 4-4-2

Goodman, Owen.GK
Wright, Drey.DEF
Samuels, Imari.DEF
Jones, Callum.MID
Wright, Joe.DEF
Astley, Ryan.DEF
Bevan, Joe.MID
Hamilton, Ethan.MID
Fink, Bradley.FWD
Hay, Ashley.FWD
Forrest, Alan.MID

The players who started faced Kilmarnock on Wed 28 Oct.

Hearts 4-2-3-1

Reus, Beau.GK
Altena, Jordi.DEF
Mato, Rogers.DEF
Magnússon, Tómas.MID
Walcott, Malachi.DEF
McCart, Jamie.DEF
Kerjota, Sabah.MID
Mendy, Laurent.MID
Braga, Cláudio.FWD
Miller, Calvin.MID
McPake, Joshua.MID

They started v Rangers on Wed 28 Oct.

Chances for correct scores

Score chance percentages, with Dundee goals down the side and Hearts goals across
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6.0	8.4	7.7	4.4	1.8	0.6
1	5.9	11.9	9.5	5.4	2.3	0.8
2	4.1	6.9	5.8	3.3	1.4	0.5
3	1.7	2.8	2.4	1.3	0.6	0.2
4	0.5	0.9	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1
5	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Scoring times

For Dundee, 11 games. For Hearts, 11 games.

Cards and corners

Corners expected: 10.2 in total, with Dundee 4.4 and Hearts 5.8; the league figure is 10.3.
Yellow cards expected: 3.9 (league 3.9).

Form in recent matches

Dundee

Dundee's last 6
			Result
Wed 28 Oct	v Kilmarnock	3-1	W
Sat 24 Oct	at St Mirren	1-2	L
Sat 17 Oct	v Rangers	2-2	D
Sat 10 Oct	at Falkirk	2-1	W
Sat 19 Sep	v Motherwell	2-1	W
Sun 6 Sep	at Hearts	1-2	L

Dundee's score is listed first.

Heart of Midlothian

Hearts' last 6
			Result
Wed 28 Oct	v Rangers	2-2	D
Sun 25 Oct	at Motherwell	2-0	W
Sun 18 Oct	at Celtic	1-7	L
Sat 10 Oct	v St Mirren	5-0	W
Sat 19 Sep	at Kilmarnock	1-1	D
Tue 15 Sep	at Falkirk	1-2	L

Hearts' score is listed first.

Head to head


Sun 6 Sep 2026	Scottish Prem	Hearts 2-1 Dundee	0-1	16
Sat 21 Mar 2026	Scottish Prem	Hearts 1-0 Dundee	0-0	11
Sun 11 Jan 2026	Scottish Prem	Dundee 0-1 Hearts	0-1	10
Sat 1 Nov 2025	Scottish Prem	Hearts 4-0 Dundee	2-0	8
Sat 26 Apr 2025	Scottish Prem	Hearts 0-1 Dundee	0-1	10
Sat 1 Feb 2025	Scottish Prem	Dundee 0-6 Hearts	0-2	12
Sat 7 Dec 2024	Scottish Prem	Hearts 2-0 Dundee	2-0	10
Sat 10 Aug 2024	Scottish Prem	Dundee 3-1 Hearts	3-0	12