Crewe Alexandra vs AFC Wimbledon prediction
The analysis we provide
The FA Cup tie pits a League Two team against a League One team, with 1 division between them. Both clubs are rated on the same scale, which uses league games and earlier cup ties.
Across their last 6, Crewe took 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 9 goals scored and 11 conceded. Wimbledon managed 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats in their last 6, scoring 4 and conceding 14.
In 64% of Crewe matches this season both sides scored, and 29% of games went past 2.5 goals. Wimbledon sit at 38% and 46%. Crewe's expected goals per game are 1.07, and they allow 1.26. Wimbledon sit at 0.87 and 1.63.
Since August 2024 our results show 2 meetings: 0 wins for Crewe, 1 for Wimbledon, and 1 level. The most recent of those, played on Tuesday 11 February 2025, ended AFC Wimbledon 3-0 Crewe.
Crewe winning is what the model expects most often, at 41%; the draw sits at 29% and Wimbledon 30%. Expected goals are 1.30 for Crewe, 1.08 for Wimbledon.
Our predicted score is Crewe Alexandra 1-0 AFC Wimbledon. One exact score, 1-1, has the highest chance at 13.8%. Within the result we lean to, 1-0 is the likeliest score.
Crewe v Wimbledon match stats
| Per game |  Crewe |  Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.2 / 4.6 | 6.6 / 5.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| xG for / against | 0.93 / 1.15 | 0.86 / 2.12 |
| Per game | Crewe | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.21 | 0.69 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.21 | 1.62 |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 38% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.5 / 4.8 | 5.6 / 5.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| xG for / against | 1.07 / 1.26 | 0.87 / 1.63 |
| Per game | Crewe | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.71 | 0.86 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.14 | 2.43 |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.9 / 6.4 | 4.9 / 5.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| xG for / against | 1.16 / 1.40 | 0.88 / 1.56 |
| Per game | Crewe | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.5 / 5.5 | 5.5 / 3.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.0 | 0.0 |
Market fair prices
| Match result | Crewe win | 41% | 6/4 |
| Draw | 29% | 5/2 | |
| Wimbledon win | 30% | 9/4 | |
| Double chance | Crewe or draw | 70% | 4/9 |
| Wimbledon or draw | 59% | 4/6 | |
| Draw no bet | Crewe | 58% | 8/11 |
| Wimbledon | 42% | 11/8 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 21/20 |
| No | 51% | evens | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 70% | 4/9 |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 11/8 | |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 8/11 | |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Result and BTTS | Crewe and yes | 17% | 5/1 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Wimbledon and yes | 13% | 7/1 | |
| Result and goals | Crewe and over 2.5 | 22% | 7/2 |
| Wimbledon and over 2.5 | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Crewe and under 2.5 | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Wimbledon and under 2.5 | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Crewe / Crewe | 24% | 3/1 |
| Draw / Draw | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Wimbledon / Wimbledon | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Draw / Crewe | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 53% | 10/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 42% | 11/8 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 38% | 13/8 |
| Over 4.5 | 23% | 10/3 |
We get a fair price by dividing 1 by our chance. Our feed has no bookmaker prices from the UK for this game, because football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition.
Line-ups we expect
Crewe 4-2-3-1
- Lawlor, Ian.GK
- Billington, Lewis.DEF
- Hutchinson, Reece.DEF
- Thomas, Conor.MID
- Offord, Luke.DEF
- Stephenson, Joshua.DEF
- March, Josh.MID
- Holícek, Matús.MID
- McNeill, Charlie.FWD
- Tabiner, Joel.MID
- Gibson, Jordan.MID
Started Sat 31 Oct against Barnet.
Wimbledon 5-3-2
- Bursik, Josef.GK
- Tilley, James.DEF
- Sasu, Aron.DEF
- Seddon, Steve.DEF
- Johnson, Ryan.DEF
- Yiadom, Andy.DEF
- Smith, Alistair.MID
- Harrison, Ollie.MID
- Cornick, Harry.FWD
- Stockley, Jayden.FWD
- Hippolyte, Myles.MID
Those players began the match Sat 31 Oct at Stockport.
For other clubs, ESPN supplies the eleven that started their latest match. Once ESPN confirms the teams, those line-ups replace these, about an hour before kick-off.
Chances of each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
Crewe, 16 games For Wimbledon, 15 games. This season's goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events.
Corners and card counts
- Corners expected: 10.1 in total (Crewe 5.1 and Wimbledon 5.0, while the league sits at 9.9).
- Yellow cards expected: 3.1 (league 3.7).
Latest form
Crewe Alexandra
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Barnet | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Chesterfield | 1-5 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Exeter | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Rochdale | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Swindon | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Bristol Rvs | 3-1 | W |
Read the scores with Crewe first.
AFC Wimbledon
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Stockport | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Wycombe | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Mansfield | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Sheffield Wednesday | 0-5 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Plymouth | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Cambridge | 1-1 | D |
Read the scores with Wimbledon first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 11 Feb 2025 | League Two | AFC Wimbledon 3-0 Crewe | 2-0 | 4 |
| Tue 28 Jan 2025 | League Two | Crewe 1-1 AFC Wimbledon | 1-1 | 14 |