Burton Albion vs Luton Town prediction
The analysis we put together
Burton Albion sit 15th in League One, taking 17 points from 14 matches. With 24 points from 14 games, Luton are 4th, 7 points ahead.
Burton Albion's last 6 show 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 5 scored and 9 conceded. Their last 6 games brought 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat for Luton, with 11 scored and 6 against.
In 64% of Burton Albion games this season, both teams scored, and 64% of matches went over 2.5 goals. Luton's figures are 79% and 64%. Each game, Burton Albion create 0.88 expected goals and allow 1.50. For Luton the figures are 1.62 created and 1.11 allowed.
Since August 2024 our results show 2 meetings: 0 wins for Burton Albion, 1 for Luton and 1 draw. Their most recent meeting, on Saturday 21 February 2026, ended Luton 1-1 Burton.
The likeliest result in the model is a Luton win at 45%, with Burton Albion 28% and the draw 27%. Expected goals are 1.12 for Burton Albion and 1.50 for Luton.
The score we predict is Burton Albion 0-1 Luton Town. For exact scores, 1-1 is the single likeliest at 13.0%. Within the result we lean to, 0-1 is the likeliest score.
Stats: Burton Albion v Luton
| Per game |  Burton Albion |  Luton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.8 / 6.4 | 5.6 / 6.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.00 / 1.29 | 1.63 / 1.01 |
| Per game | Burton Albion | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.29 | 1.93 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.3 / 5.9 | 6.0 / 4.7 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| xG for / against | 0.88 / 1.50 | 1.62 / 1.11 |
| Per game | Burton Albion | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.71 | 2.14 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.43 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.7 / 7.3 | 4.6 / 4.7 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.07 / 1.35 | 1.46 / 1.43 |
| Per game | Burton Albion | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.0 / 2.5 | 2.5 / 6.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
Market fair prices
| Match result | Burton Albion win | 28% | 13/5 |
| Draw | 27% | 13/5 | |
| Luton win | 45% | 6/5 | |
| Double chance | Burton Albion or draw | 55% | 5/6 |
| Luton or draw | 72% | 4/11 | |
| Draw no bet | Burton Albion | 38% | 13/8 |
| Luton | 62% | 8/13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 10/11 |
| No | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 74% | 1/3 |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 21/20 | |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 10/11 | |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 11/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Burton Albion and yes | 13% | 13/2 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Luton and yes | 21% | 4/1 | |
| Result and goals | Burton Albion and over 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 |
| Luton and over 2.5 | 27% | 11/4 | |
| Burton Albion and under 2.5 | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Luton and under 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Luton / Luton | 27% | 13/5 |
| Draw / Luton | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Burton Albion / Burton Albion | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 54% | 5/6 |
| Over 10.5 | 43% | 13/10 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 47% | 11/10 |
| Over 4.5 | 31% | 9/4 |
Divide 1 by our chance to get the fair price.
Line-ups we predict
Burton Albion 3-4-2-1
- Addai, Corey.GK
- Borges Rodrigues, Raphael.MID
- Armer, Jack.MID
- Sraha, Jason.DEF
- Tilt, Curtis.DEF
- Sibbick, Toby.DEF
- Krubally, Sulyman.MID
- Chauke, Kgagelo.MID
- O’Mahony, Mark.FWD
- Kingslyn Arubi, Gbemi.FWD
- Webster, Charlie.FWD
The start was at Wycombe on Sat 31 Oct.
Luton 4-1-4-1
- Shea, James.GK
- Jones, Isaiah.DEF
- Naismith, Kal.DEF
- Walsh, Liam.MID
- Andersen, Mads.DEF
- Johnston, George.DEF
- Mendel-Idowu, Tudor.MID
- Clark, Jordan.MID
- Wells, Nahki.FWD
- Donley, Jamie.MID
- Palmer, Kasey.MID
They started at Huddersfield on Tue 3 Nov.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 13.0 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When each team scores
Luton, 16 games, and Burton Albion, 15 games.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 10.2, with Burton Albion 4.6 and Luton 5.6; the league average is 10.4.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.6 (league 3.7).
Latest form
Burton Albion
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Wycombe | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Leyton Orient | 2-1 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Bradford | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Peterborough | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Doncaster | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Huddersfield | 1-3 | L |
Scores here are listed with Burton Albion first.
Luton Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Huddersfield | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 31 Oct | at Peterborough | 2-0 | W |
| Tue 27 Oct | v Doncaster | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Leicester | 2-1 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Barnsley | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Milton Keynes Dons | 1-2 | L |
Scores here are listed with Luton first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 21 Feb 2026 | League One | Luton 1-1 Burton | 1-0 | 7 |
| Sat 30 Aug 2025 | League One | Burton 0-3 Luton | 0-2 | 10 |
League One standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |  Stockport County | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +12 | 26 |
| 3 |  Oxford United | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +11 | 26 |
| 4 | Luton Town | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 24 |
| 5 |  Plymouth Argyle | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +2 | 23 |
| 6 |  Reading | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +10 | 22 |
| 13 |  Wycombe Wanderers | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | +5 | 17 |
| 15 | Burton Albion | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 16 |  Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 |  Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November