Bolton Wanderers vs West Bromwich Albion prediction

Bolton

19:45Wednesday 25 November

West Brom

Championship
The game is at Toughsheet Community Stadium.

1-2predicted score (9%)

57%both teams score

53%over 2.5 goals

1.25-1.56expected goals

30%26%44%

What we make of it

After 14 games, Bolton have 17 points and sit 17th in the Championship. With 25 points from 14 games, West Brom sit 6th, 8 points ahead.

Over their last 6, Bolton took 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 8 goals for and 11 against. Across their last 6, West Brom recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 10 goals scored and 7 conceded.

For Bolton this season, 57% of games featured goals from both sides and 64% had more than 2.5 goals. West Brom's rates are 71% and 43%. In expected goals, Bolton produce 1.32 per match and concede 1.93; West Brom make 1.52 and allow 1.43.

At 44%, a West Brom win is the result the model favors most (Bolton 30%, the draw 26%), based on expected goals of 1.25 (Bolton) and 1.56 (West Brom).

Our prediction: Bolton Wanderers 1-2 West Bromwich Albion. At 12.4%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score. For the outcome we favor, 1-2 is the most likely scoreline.

Stats for Bolton v West Brom

Per game	Bolton	West Brom
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	1.40	2.00
Goals conceded a game	1.80	1.20
Both teams scored	60%	100%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%
Clean sheets	40%	0%
Corners won / conceded	4.4 / 6.8	6.6 / 5.2
Yellow cards a game	1.8	1.6
xG for / against	1.24 / 2.54	2.35 / 1.06

Per game	Bolton	West Brom
Games	14	14
Goals scored a game	1.36	1.43
Goals conceded a game	1.86	1.07
Both teams scored	57%	71%
Over 2.5 goals	64%	43%
Clean sheets	29%	14%
Corners won / conceded	5.4 / 5.5	5.6 / 6.0
Yellow cards a game	1.6	2.0
xG for / against	1.32 / 1.93	1.52 / 1.43

Per game	Bolton	West Brom
Games	7	7
Goals scored a game	1.29	1.43
Goals conceded a game	2.14	1.14
Both teams scored	71%	71%
Over 2.5 goals	71%	57%
Clean sheets	14%	14%
Corners won / conceded	6.9 / 5.4	5.7 / 7.3
Yellow cards a game	1.4	2.0
xG for / against	1.46 / 2.06	1.29 / 1.67

Fair prices for each market


Match result	Bolton win	30%	12/5
	Draw	26%	14/5
	West Brom win	44%	13/10
Double chance	Bolton or draw	56%	4/5
	West Brom or draw	70%	4/9
Draw no bet	Bolton	40%	6/4
	West Brom	60%	4/6
Both teams to score	Yes	57%	8/11
	No	43%	13/10
Goals	Over 1.5	78%	2/7
	Over 2.5	53%	10/11
	Under 2.5	47%	11/10
	Over 3.5	31%	9/4
Result and BTTS	Bolton and yes	16%	11/2
	Draw and yes	20%	4/1
	West Brom and yes	22%	18/5
Result and goals	Bolton and over 2.5	18%	9/2
	West Brom and over 2.5	28%	13/5
	Bolton and under 2.5	12%	15/2
	West Brom and under 2.5	16%	5/1
Half time / full time	West Brom / West Brom	27%	11/4
	Bolton / Bolton	17%	5/1
	Draw / West Brom	15%	11/2
	Draw / Draw	15%	6/1
Corners	Over 9.5	62%	8/13
	Over 10.5	51%	evens
Cards	Over 3.5	45%	6/5
	Over 4.5	29%	12/5

Match result

Bolton win

30%

12/5

Draw

26%

14/5

West Brom win

44%

13/10

Double chance

Bolton or draw

56%

4/5

West Brom or draw

70%

4/9

Draw no bet

Bolton

40%

6/4

West Brom

60%

4/6

Both teams to score

Yes

57%

8/11

43%

13/10

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

2/7

Over 2.5

53%

10/11

Under 2.5

47%

11/10

Over 3.5

31%

9/4

Result and BTTS

Bolton and yes

16%

11/2

Draw and yes

20%

4/1

West Brom and yes

22%

18/5

Result and goals

Bolton and over 2.5

18%

9/2

West Brom and over 2.5

28%

13/5

Bolton and under 2.5

12%

15/2

West Brom and under 2.5

16%

5/1

Half time / full time

West Brom / West Brom

27%

11/4

Bolton / Bolton

17%

5/1

Draw / West Brom

15%

11/2

Draw / Draw

15%

6/1

Corners

Over 9.5

62%

8/13

Over 10.5

51%

evens

Cards

Over 3.5

45%

6/5

Over 4.5

29%

12/5

Fair price equals 1 divided by our chance.

Line-ups we expect

Bolton 4-2-3-1

Bonham, Jack.GK
Stephenson, Luca.DEF
Conway, Max.DEF
Sheehan, Josh.MID
Forino Joseph, Christian.DEF
Famewo, Akin.DEF
Iling-Junior, Samuel.MID
Simons, Xavier.MID
Dalby, Sam.FWD
Ito, Atsuki.MID
Lott, Max.MID

They started at Charlton on Tue 3 Nov.

West Brom 4-4-2

O'Leary, Max.GK
Pereira, Brayann.DEF
Styles, Callum.DEF
Molumby, Jayson.MID
Mepham, Chris.DEF
Campbell, George.DEF
Nzingoula, Rabby.MID
Diakite, Ousmane.MID
Horn Myhre, Felix.FWD
Morgan, Jimmy.FWD
Price, Isaac.MID

Started Tue 3 Nov against Southampton.

Chances for each exact score

Score percentages, with Bolton goals listed down and West Brom goals shown across the top
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6.7	8.7	7.3	3.8	1.5	0.5
1	6.8	12.4	9.2	4.8	1.9	0.6
2	4.7	7.3	5.7	3.0	1.2	0.4
3	2.0	3.0	2.4	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.6	1.0	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.0
5	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Scoring times

Games played: Bolton, 15; West Brom, 16 games.

Corner and card figures

Expected corners: Bolton 5.7, West Brom 5.2, with a league figure of 10.4 and a total of 10.8.
Yellow cards expected: 3.5, compared with a league figure of 3.7.

Form in recent matches

Bolton Wanderers

Bolton's last 6 games
			Result
Tue 3 Nov	at Charlton	1-0	W
Sat 31 Oct	v Bristol City	2-3	L
Fri 23 Oct	v Middlesbrough	1-5	L
Sat 17 Oct	at Southampton	0-0	D
Tue 13 Oct	at Wolves	3-1	W
Sat 10 Oct	v Stoke	1-2	L

Bolton appears first in the scores.

West Bromwich Albion

West Brom's last 6 matches
			Result
Tue 3 Nov	v Southampton	1-1	D
Sat 31 Oct	at West Ham	3-1	W
Sat 24 Oct	at Preston	1-1	D
Sat 17 Oct	v Blackburn	3-2	W
Tue 13 Oct	at Wrexham	2-1	W
Sat 10 Oct	v Birmingham	0-1	L

West Brom appears first in the scores.

Championship table

Pos	Club	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
4	Stoke City	14	8	2	4	+5	26
5	Swansea City	14	8	2	4	+5	26
6	West Bromwich Albion	14	7	4	3	+5	25
7	Southampton	14	8	4	2	+15	24
8	West Ham United	14	6	5	3	+15	23
15	Bristol City	14	5	3	6	-3	18
16	Wrexham	14	4	5	5	-2	17
17	Bolton Wanderers	14	5	2	7	-7	17
18	Cardiff City	14	3	6	5	-1	15
19	Lincoln City	14	4	3	7	-10	15