Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth prediction

Bolton

15:00Saturday 21 November

Portsmouth

Championship
Ground: Toughsheet Community Stadium
Not live on UK TV (the Saturday blackout)

1-2predicted score (9%)

58%both teams score

53%over 2.5 goals

1.34-1.47expected goals

34%27%39%

Our breakdown

In the Championship, Bolton sit 17th and have taken 17 points from 14 games. A total of 22 points from 14 games puts Portsmouth 10th, 5 points ahead.

Across their last 6 matches, Bolton recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 11. From their last 6 matches, Portsmouth took 4 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats, with 10 goals for and 5 against.

For Bolton this season, 57% of games had goals from both sides and 64% finished over 2.5 goals. Portsmouth's figures are 57% and 50%. By expected goals, Bolton produce 1.32 per game and concede 1.93. Portsmouth produce 1.24 and concede 1.27.

At 39%, a Portsmouth win is the likeliest result the model gives. Bolton 34% and the draw 27% follow, based on 1.34 expected goals for Bolton and 1.47 for Portsmouth.

The score prediction is Bolton Wanderers 1-2 Portsmouth. For one exact score, 1-1 leads at 12.6%. Within the result we lean to, 1-2 is likeliest.

Stats for Bolton v Portsmouth

Per game	Bolton	Portsmouth
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	1.40	1.40
Goals conceded a game	1.80	0.60
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	40%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Corners won / conceded	4.4 / 6.8	3.0 / 4.4
Yellow cards a game	1.8	2.0
xG for / against	1.24 / 2.54	0.85 / 1.23

Per game	Bolton	Portsmouth
Games	14	14
Goals scored a game	1.36	1.36
Goals conceded a game	1.86	1.14
Both teams scored	57%	57%
Over 2.5 goals	64%	50%
Clean sheets	29%	29%
Corners won / conceded	5.4 / 5.5	5.6 / 4.8
Yellow cards a game	1.6	1.5
xG for / against	1.32 / 1.93	1.24 / 1.27

Per game	Bolton	Portsmouth
Games	7	7
Goals scored a game	1.29	0.86
Goals conceded a game	2.14	0.71
Both teams scored	71%	43%
Over 2.5 goals	71%	29%
Clean sheets	14%	43%
Corners won / conceded	6.9 / 5.4	3.9 / 4.6
Yellow cards a game	1.4	1.6
xG for / against	1.46 / 2.06	0.90 / 1.16

Fair prices for each market


Match result	Bolton win	34%	2/1
	Draw	27%	11/4
	Portsmouth win	39%	6/4
Double chance	Bolton or draw	61%	4/6
	Portsmouth or draw	66%	1/2
Draw no bet	Bolton	46%	6/5
	Portsmouth	54%	5/6
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	8/11
	No	42%	11/8
Goals	Over 1.5	78%	2/7
	Over 2.5	53%	10/11
	Under 2.5	47%	11/10
	Over 3.5	31%	9/4
Result and BTTS	Bolton and yes	18%	9/2
	Draw and yes	20%	4/1
	Portsmouth and yes	20%	4/1
Result and goals	Bolton and over 2.5	21%	18/5
	Portsmouth and over 2.5	25%	3/1
	Bolton and under 2.5	13%	7/1
	Portsmouth and under 2.5	15%	6/1
Half time / full time	Portsmouth / Portsmouth	24%	16/5
	Bolton / Bolton	20%	4/1
	Draw / Draw	15%	6/1
	Draw / Portsmouth	14%	6/1
Corners	Over 9.5	59%	4/6
	Over 10.5	48%	21/20
Cards	Over 3.5	43%	13/10
	Over 4.5	27%	13/5

Match result

Bolton win

34%

2/1

Draw

27%

11/4

Portsmouth win

39%

6/4

Double chance

Bolton or draw

61%

4/6

Portsmouth or draw

66%

1/2

Draw no bet

Bolton

46%

6/5

Portsmouth

54%

5/6

Both teams to score

Yes

58%

8/11

42%

11/8

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

2/7

Over 2.5

53%

10/11

Under 2.5

47%

11/10

Over 3.5

31%

9/4

Result and BTTS

Bolton and yes

18%

9/2

Draw and yes

20%

4/1

Portsmouth and yes

20%

4/1

Result and goals

Bolton and over 2.5

21%

18/5

Portsmouth and over 2.5

25%

3/1

Bolton and under 2.5

13%

7/1

Portsmouth and under 2.5

15%

6/1

Half time / full time

Portsmouth / Portsmouth

24%

16/5

Bolton / Bolton

20%

4/1

Draw / Draw

15%

6/1

Draw / Portsmouth

14%

6/1

Corners

Over 9.5

59%

4/6

Over 10.5

48%

21/20

Cards

Over 3.5

43%

13/10

Over 4.5

27%

13/5

To get a fair price, divide 1 by our chance.

Line-up predictions

Bolton 4-2-3-1

Name: Jack Bonham.GK
Name: Luca Stephenson.DEF
Name: Max Conway.DEF
Name: Josh Sheehan.MID
Name: Christian Forino Joseph.DEF
Name: Akin Famewo.DEF
Name: Samuel Iling-Junior.MID
Name: Xavier Simons.MID
Name: Sam Dalby.FWD
Name: Atsuki Ito.MID
Name: Max Lott.MID

They started at Charlton on Tue 3 Nov.

Portsmouth 4-2-3-1

Name: Nicolas Schmid.GK
Name: Terry Devlin.DEF
Name: Jayden Meghoma.DEF
Name: Iyad Mohamed.MID
Name: Regan Poole.DEF
Name: Madiodio Dia.DEF
Name: Adrian Segecic.MID
Name: Ebrima Adams.MID
Name: Marko Milovanovic.FWD
Name: Odin Bailey.MID
Name: Tyrese Shade.MID

They started Tue 3 Nov v Swansea.

Chances for each correct score

Chances for each score in %, with Bolton goals down the side and Portsmouth goals across
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6.7	8.1	6.5	3.2	1.2	0.3
1	7.4	12.6	8.7	4.2	1.6	0.5
2	5.4	8.0	5.8	2.9	1.0	0.3
3	2.4	3.6	2.6	1.3	0.5	0.1
4	0.8	1.2	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.0
5	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

When each team scores

Games played: Bolton, 15 games; Portsmouth, 15 games.

Cards and corners

Corners expected: 10.6 overall, with Bolton 5.7, Portsmouth 5.0 and a league figure of 10.4.
We expect 3.4 yellow cards (league 3.7).

Form in recent games

Bolton Wanderers

Bolton's 6 latest games
			Result
Tue 3 Nov	at Charlton	1-0	W
Sat 31 Oct	v Bristol City	2-3	L
Fri 23 Oct	v Middlesbrough	1-5	L
Sat 17 Oct	at Southampton	0-0	D
Tue 13 Oct	at Wolves	3-1	W
Sat 10 Oct	v Stoke	1-2	L

Bolton scores come first.

Portsmouth

Portsmouth's 6 latest games
			Result
Tue 3 Nov	v Swansea	3-1	W
Sat 31 Oct	at Burnley	0-0	D
Sat 24 Oct	v Millwall	2-1	W
Tue 20 Oct	at Wolves	1-1	D
Sat 17 Oct	at Norwich	1-0	W
Wed 14 Oct	v Sheffield United	3-2	W

Portsmouth scores come first.

Championship standings

Pos	Club	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
8	West Ham United	14	6	5	3	+15	23
9	Sheffield United	14	6	4	4	+3	22
10	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	+3	22
11	Queens Park Rangers	14	5	6	3	+5	21
12	Norwich City	14	6	0	8	+3	18
13	Millwall	14	5	3	6	-1	18
14	Blackburn Rovers	14	5	3	6	-2	18
15	Bristol City	14	5	3	6	-3	18
16	Wrexham	14	4	5	5	-2	17
17	Bolton Wanderers	14	5	2	7	-7	17
18	Cardiff City	14	3	6	5	-1	15
19	Lincoln City	14	4	3	7	-10	15