Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City prediction
With the margin removed, the market has Bolton 33%, draw 27% and Bristol City 40% (an average of 6 UK bookmakers).
What the model found
Bolton sit 16th in the Championship, having earned 17 points across 14 matches. Bristol City sit 15th on 18 from 13, holding a 1 point lead.
Bolton's last 6 show 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 10 scored and 11 conceded. Bristol City lost 3, drew 2 and won 1 of their last 6, scoring 2 and conceding 4.
This season, 58% of Bolton games featured goals from both teams, while 67% had over 2.5 goals. Bristol City's figures are 50% and 42%. Bolton's expected goals come to 1.36 per game with 1.91 allowed, and Bristol City create 1.30 while allowing 1.34.
Bolton's expected goals are 1.34 and Bristol City's are 1.47. From those numbers, the model rates a Bristol City win at 40%, Bolton 34% and the draw 27%. After removing their margin, UK bookmakers also put the result at 40%, close to our figure.
Score prediction: Bolton Wanderers 1-2 Bristol City. A 1-1 exact score has the highest single chance at 12.6%. Within our favored result, the score 1-2 leads.
Stats: Bolton v Bristol City
| Per game |  Bolton |  Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.0 / 6.8 | 5.2 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.66 / 2.00 | 1.27 / 0.98 |
| Per game | Bolton | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.92 | 1.25 |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.1 / 5.8 | 5.5 / 5.3 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| xG for / against | 1.36 / 1.91 | 1.30 / 1.34 |
| Per game | Bolton | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.2 / 5.7 | 4.8 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.47 / 1.85 | 1.47 / 1.45 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Bolton win | 34% | 2/1 | 15/8 Betway | -2.8% |
| Draw | 27% | 11/4 | 5/2 BetVictor | -7.0% | |
| Bristol City win | 40% | 6/4 | 11/8 bet365 | -7.0% | |
| Double chance | Bolton or draw | 60% | 4/6 | ||
| Bristol City or draw | 66% | 1/2 | |||
| Draw no bet | Bolton | 46% | 6/5 | ||
| Bristol City | 54% | 5/6 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 8/11 | ||
| No | 42% | 11/8 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 78% | 2/7 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 10/11 | 4/5 bet365 | -3.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 11/10 | evens bet365 | -6.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 9/4 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Bolton and yes | 18% | 9/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Bristol City and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Bolton and over 2.5 | 21% | 4/1 | ||
| Bristol City and over 2.5 | 25% | 3/1 | |||
| Bolton and under 2.5 | 13% | 7/1 | |||
| Bristol City and under 2.5 | 15% | 6/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Bristol City / Bristol City | 24% | 10/3 | ||
| Bolton / Bolton | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 15% | 6/1 | |||
| Draw / Bristol City | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 59% | 8/11 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 48% | 11/10 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 46% | 6/5 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 30% | 5/2 |
Our fair price is 1 divided by the chance. Bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk, which offers match odds plus over/under 2.5 markets only. Edge appears where both figures are available.
Line-ups for the starting players
Bolton 4-2-3-1
- Bonham, Jack.GK
- Larrazabal, Gaizka.DEF
- Conway, Max.DEF
- Sheehan, Josh.MID
- Forino Joseph, Christian.DEF
- Davies, Ben.DEF
- Iling-Junior, Samuel.MID
- Simons, Xavier.MID
- Dalby, Sam.FWD
- Ito, Atsuki.MID
- Gale, Thierry.MID
Bristol City 3-5-2
- Collins, Bradley.GK
- Cardines, Rio.MID
- Pring, Cameron.MID
- Eissat, Lisav.DEF
- McNally, Luke.DEF
- Tanner, George.DEF
- Knight, Jason.MID
- De Keersmaecker, Brian.MID
- Ballard, Dominic.FWD
- Tolaj, Lorent.FWD
- Williams, Joe.MID
The starting elevens come from ESPN and were read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Bolton, 15 games ; for Bristol City, 15 games. This season's goals by minute come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- 10.6corners expected (Bolton 5.7, Bristol City 4.9; league 10.4)
- Yellow cards expected: 3.6 (league 3.7, referee adjusted).
Latest form
Bolton Wanderers
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct | v Middlesbrough | 1-5 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Southampton | 0-0 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Wolves | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Stoke | 1-2 | L |
| Sun 20 Sep | at Norwich | 4-3 | W |
| Sat 12 Sep | v Cardiff | 1-0 | W |
The scores are listed with Bolton first.
Bristol City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | at Stoke | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Sheffield United | 0-1 | L |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Blackburn | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Charlton | 1-1 | D |
| Fri 18 Sep | v Watford | 1-0 | W |
| Tue 15 Sep | v Lincoln | 0-1 | L |
The scores are listed with Bristol City first.
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn Rovers | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 | Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 | Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
| 17 |  Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 18 |  Cardiff City | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
The standings come from ESPN as of Wednesday 4 November.