Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City prediction
Removing the margin gives Blackburn 36%, a draw 28% and Stoke 35%, based on an average of 6 UK bookmakers.
What the model made of it
In the Championship, Blackburn sit 14th. They've earned 18 points across 14 games. Stoke sit 3rd in the table with 26 points from 14 matches, 8 points ahead.
Blackburn's last 6 games gave them 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 9 scored and 10 conceded. In their last 6 matches, Stoke recorded 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. They scored 9 and conceded 5.
So far this season both teams scored in 69% of Blackburn matches and 77% of those games went over 2.5 goals; Stoke's figures are 62% and 62%. For expected goals per game, Blackburn create 0.98 and allow 1.83. Stoke's figures are 1.02 created and 1.49 allowed.
Since August 2024, our results include 4 meetings. Stoke won 2, Blackburn won 0 and 2 ended level. The most recent meeting, played Saturday 11 April 2026, ended Stoke 1-1 Blackburn.
Blackburn's expected goals of 1.22 and Stoke's 1.08 sit behind the model's picks: a Blackburn win at 39%, the draw 30%, Stoke 32%. Take the margin out and UK bookmakers have it at 36%, so our own rating sits above the market.
We forecast Blackburn Rovers 1-0 Stoke City as the score. 1-1 is the likeliest single exact score, at 14.0%. For the result we lean to, 1-0 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Blackburn v Stoke
| Per game |  Blackburn |  Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.8 / 6.8 | 5.2 / 6.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.06 / 2.30 | 1.05 / 1.51 |
| Per game | Blackburn | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.46 | 1.54 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.54 | 1.23 |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 38% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.9 / 5.7 | 4.8 / 5.3 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 0.98 / 1.83 | 1.02 / 1.49 |
| Per game | Blackburn | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.0 / 5.5 | 4.0 / 6.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| xG for / against | 1.41 / 1.29 | 0.96 / 2.18 |
| Per game | Blackburn | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.8 / 4.2 | 4.2 / 5.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
Fair prices and top UK odds
| Match result | Blackburn win | 39% | 13/8 | 13/8 BetVictor | +1.6% |
| Draw | 30% | 9/4 | 5/2 Betway | +1.5% | |
| Stoke win | 32% | 9/4 | 15/8 Betway | -8.6% | |
| Double chance | Blackburn or draw | 68% | 4/9 | ||
| Stoke or draw | 61% | 8/13 | |||
| Draw no bet | Blackburn | 55% | 4/5 | ||
| Stoke | 45% | 5/4 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 11/10 | ||
| No | 53% | 10/11 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 68% | 1/2 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 6/4 | evens bet365 | -19.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 4/6 | 4/5 bet365 | +7.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Blackburn and yes | 15% | 11/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |||
| Stoke and yes | 13% | 7/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Blackburn and over 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 | ||
| Stoke and over 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 | |||
| Blackburn and under 2.5 | 19% | 9/2 | |||
| Stoke and under 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 | |||
| Half time / full time | Blackburn / Blackburn | 23% | 10/3 | ||
| Draw / Draw | 19% | 9/2 | |||
| Stoke / Stoke | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Blackburn | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 60% | 4/6 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 49% | 21/20 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 43% | 11/8 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 27% | 11/4 |
A fair price is 1 divided by our chance. football-data.co.uk supplies the bookmaker prices. It has match odds plus over/under 2.5 only, and edge shows where both numbers are available.
Line-ups for the start
Blackburn 4-2-3-1
- Name: Balazs Toth.GK
- Name: Ryan Alebiousu.DEF
- Name: Harry Pickering.DEF
- Name: Kristi Montgomery.MID
- Name: Hayden Carter.DEF
- Name: Sean McLoughlin.DEF
- Name: Jayden Fevrier.MID
- Name: Sam Morsy.MID
- Name: Andri Gudjohnsen.FWD
- Name: Todd Cantwell.MID
- Name: Oladapo Afolayan.MID
Stoke 3-4-3
- Name: Viktor Johansson.GK
- Name: Ben Johnson.MID
- Name: Luca Bombino.MID
- Name: Luke Graham.DEF
- Name: Maksym Taloverov.DEF
- Name: Ben Wilmot.DEF
- McGlynn, Jack.MID
- Soumaré, Djibril.MID
- Bozeník, Róbert.FWD
- Name: Million Manhoef.FWD
- Devenny, Justin.FWD
ESPN, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11, gives the starting elevens.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 14.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Blackburn have 16 games. Stoke, 16 games. This season's goal times come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Expected corners: 10.7 in totalBlackburn 5.0, Stoke 5.7, and the league sits at 10.5
- Yellow cards expected: 3.4 (league 3.7, referee adjusted).
Form from recent matches
Blackburn Rovers
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Swansea | 0-4 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Wrexham | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at West Brom | 2-3 | L |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Bristol City | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Cardiff | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Portsmouth | 2-2 | D |
Read the score with Blackburn first.
Stoke City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Preston | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Bristol City | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Derby | 1-0 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Middlesbrough | 2-3 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Bolton | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Sheffield United | 2-1 | W |
Read the score with Stoke first.
Head to head
| Sat 11 Apr 2026 | Championship | Stoke 1-1 Blackburn | 0-1 | 7 |
| Sat 4 Oct 2025 | Championship | Blackburn 1-1 Stoke | 0-0 | 13 |
| Wed 12 Mar 2025 | Championship | Stoke 1-0 Blackburn | 1-0 | 7 |
| Wed 6 Nov 2024 | Championship | Blackburn 0-2 Stoke | 0-0 | 13 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +13 | 28 |
| 2 |  Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 4 |  Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 25 |
| 12 |  Norwich City | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Blackburn Rovers | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
The standings come from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.