Birmingham City vs Millwall prediction
Birmingham 49%, the draw 26% and Millwall 26%, with the margin removed. The figures average across 6 UK bookmakers.
The model's take on it
In the Championship, Birmingham hold 2nd place with 26 points from 14 games. Millwall have 13th place on 18 points from 14 games, trailing by 8 points.
Birmingham's last 6 games brought 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 13 scored and 4 conceded. From their last 6, Millwall took 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 8.
Across the season, both teams scored in 62% of Birmingham matches, and 69% had more than 2.5 goals. For Millwall, the rates were 54% and 77%. Birmingham's expected goals are 1.73 a game, with 1.40 allowed; Millwall sit at 1.92 a game and 1.32 allowed.
Since August 2024, our results show 2 meetings: Birmingham won 1, Millwall won 1 and there were 0 draws. On Wednesday 25 February 2026, Millwall 3-0 Birmingham was the latest result.
The likeliest outcome in the model is a Birmingham win at 40%, with the draw on 28% and Millwall 32%. It uses 1.38 expected goals for Birmingham and Millwall's figure is 1.20. With their margin removed, UK bookmakers put the chance at 49%, which is higher than our estimate.
The predicted score is Birmingham City 1-0 Millwall. At 13.3%, 1-1 stands as the likeliest single exact score. For the result we favor, 1-0 is the most likely exact score.
Stats for Birmingham v Millwall
| Per game |  Birmingham |  Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.2 / 4.0 | 7.6 / 3.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.83 / 1.45 | 1.77 / 1.16 |
| Per game | Birmingham | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.77 | 1.77 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.62 |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 77% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 31% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.3 / 4.3 | 5.6 / 5.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.73 / 1.40 | 1.92 / 1.32 |
| Per game | Birmingham | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.17 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 3.7 | 4.8 / 7.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.61 / 1.45 | 1.63 / 1.31 |
| Per game | Birmingham | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.5 / 5.0 | 5.0 / 3.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Fair prices and top UK odds
| Match result | Birmingham win | 40% | 6/4 | evens Betway | -19.2% |
| Draw | 28% | 5/2 | 11/4 Sky Bet | +4.5% | |
| Millwall win | 32% | 9/4 | 11/4 Paddy Power | +20.7% | |
| Double chance | Birmingham or draw | 68% | 4/9 | ||
| Millwall or draw | 60% | 4/6 | |||
| Draw no bet | Birmingham | 56% | 4/5 | ||
| Millwall | 44% | 5/4 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 10/11 | ||
| No | 47% | 11/10 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 74% | 4/11 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 11/10 | 4/5 bet365 | -14.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 10/11 | evens bet365 | +4.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 11/4 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Birmingham and yes | 19% | 9/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Millwall and yes | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Result and goals | Birmingham and over 2.5 | 23% | 10/3 | ||
| Millwall and over 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Birmingham and under 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Millwall and under 2.5 | 14% | 13/2 | |||
| Half time / full time | Birmingham / Birmingham | 24% | 3/1 | ||
| Millwall / Millwall | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 16% | 5/1 | |||
| Draw / Birmingham | 15% | 6/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 65% | 8/15 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 55% | 5/6 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 32% | 9/4 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 18% | 9/2 |
For a fair price, divide 1 by our chance figure. Prices come from football-data.co.uk. It lists match odds, plus over/under 2.5 and nothing else. We show the edge wherever both numbers are available.
Opening line-ups
Birmingham 4-2-3-1
- Allsop, Ryan.GK
- Laird, Ethan.DEF
- Cochrane, Alex.DEF
- Solís, Jhon.MID
- Neumann, Phil.DEF
- Klarer, Christoph.DEF
- Roberts, Patrick.MID
- Iwata, Tomoki.MID
- Bird, Max.FWD
- Stansfield, Jay.MID
- Millar, Liam.MID
Millwall 4-4-2
- Crocombe, Max.GK
- Osei-Tutu, Jordi.DEF
- Sturge, Zak.DEF
- Neghli, Camiel.MID
- Taylor, Caleb.DEF
- Cooper, Jake.DEF
- Lisbie, Kyrell.MID
- Mazou-Sacko, Derek.MID
- Ivanovic, Mihailo.FWD
- Dykes, Lyndon.FWD
- Cundle, Luke.MID
The starting elevens came from ESPN and were read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Games covered: Birmingham, 16; Millwall, 17. This season's goals by minute come from ESPN match events.
Corners and card counts
- Expected corners: 11.2League figure 10.5, with Birmingham 6.0 and Millwall 5.2
- Expected yellow cards: 2.8(league 3.7, referee adjusted)
Form guide
Birmingham City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Lincoln | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Cardiff | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v QPR | 3-0 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Preston | 4-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at West Brom | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Middlesbrough | 2-2 | D |
Match scores list Birmingham first.
Millwall
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Derby | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Portsmouth | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Lincoln | 2-2 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Swansea | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Preston | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | v West Ham | 2-2 | D |
Match scores list Millwall first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 25 Feb 2026 | Championship | Millwall 3-0 Birmingham | 2-0 | 12 |
| Tue 4 Nov 2025 | Championship | Birmingham 4-0 Millwall | 2-0 | 5 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +13 | 28 |
| 2 | Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 4 |  Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Queens Park Rangers | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +5 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich City | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 13 | Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn Rovers | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
On ESPN, the standings were current as of Wednesday 4 November.