Birmingham City vs Bolton Wanderers prediction
Our assessment
Birmingham sit 3rd in the Championship, on 26 points from 14 games. Bolton sit 17th in the table with 17 points from 14 games, 9 points behind.
Birmingham's last 6 brought 5 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, 14 goals scored and 2 conceded. The last 6 for Bolton brought 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, 8 goals scored and 11 conceded.
This season, 57% of Birmingham matches had both teams scoring, while 71% had more than 2.5 goals; Bolton's figures are 57% and 64%. Expected goals put Birmingham at 1.70 created and 1.40 allowed each game, with Bolton on 1.32 created and 1.93 allowed.
Since August 2024, our records show 2 meetings: 1 Birmingham win, 1 Bolton win and 0 draws. The most recent of those, on Tuesday 4 March 2025, ended with Bolton 3-1 Birmingham.
According to the model, a Birmingham win is the most likely outcome at 60%, with the draw at 22% and Bolton 17%. It builds that from expected goals, 2.03 for Birmingham and 1.01 for Bolton.
Our predicted score is Birmingham City 2-1 Bolton Wanderers. Of all exact scores, 1-1 at 10.4% is the likeliest. Inside the result we lean to, 2-1 ranks first.
Stats for Birmingham v Bolton
| Per game |  Birmingham |  Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.6 / 3.0 | 4.4 / 6.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.59 / 1.52 | 1.24 / 2.54 |
| Per game | Birmingham | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.86 | 1.36 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.93 | 1.86 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.4 / 4.1 | 5.4 / 5.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.70 / 1.40 | 1.32 / 1.93 |
| Per game | Birmingham | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.43 | 1.43 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.57 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 43% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 3.4 | 3.9 / 5.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| xG for / against | 1.57 / 1.44 | 1.18 / 1.79 |
| Per game | Birmingham | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.5 / 3.5 | 3.5 / 4.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 4.5 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Birmingham win | 60% | 4/6 |
| Draw | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Bolton win | 17% | 9/2 | |
| Double chance | Birmingham or draw | 83% | 2/9 |
| Bolton or draw | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Draw no bet | Birmingham | 78% | 2/7 |
| Bolton | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 4/5 |
| No | 44% | 5/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 81% | 2/9 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 8/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 7/5 | |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 7/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Birmingham and yes | 29% | 12/5 |
| Draw and yes | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Bolton and yes | 10% | 9/1 | |
| Result and goals | Birmingham and over 2.5 | 41% | 7/5 |
| Bolton and over 2.5 | 11% | 17/2 | |
| Birmingham and under 2.5 | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Bolton and under 2.5 | 7% | 14/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Birmingham / Birmingham | 39% | 8/5 |
| Draw / Birmingham | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Bolton / Bolton | 10% | 9/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 54% | 5/6 |
| Over 10.5 | 43% | 13/10 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 44% | 13/10 |
| Over 4.5 | 28% | 13/5 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance.
Line-ups we predict
Birmingham 4-2-3-1
- Allsop, Ryan.GK
- Laird, Ethan.DEF
- Cochrane, Alex.DEF
- Solís, Jhon.MID
- Neumann, Phil.DEF
- Klarer, Christoph.DEF
- Roberts, Patrick.MID
- Iwata, Tomoki.MID
- Bird, Max.FWD
- Stansfield, Jay.MID
- Millar, Liam.MID
Started against Millwall on Tue 3 Nov.
Bolton 4-2-3-1
- Bonham, Jack.GK
- Stephenson, Luca.DEF
- Conway, Max.DEF
- Sheehan, Josh.MID
- Forino Joseph, Christian.DEF
- Famewo, Akin.DEF
- Iling-Junior, Samuel.MID
- Simons, Xavier.MID
- Dalby, Sam.FWD
- Ito, Atsuki.MID
- Lott, Max.MID
They started Tue 3 Nov at Charlton.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Games played: Birmingham, 16; Bolton, 15.
Corners plus cards
- Expected corners: 10.1 overall, Birmingham 5.3, Bolton 4.8, and 10.4 for the league.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.4 (league 3.7).
Form lately
Birmingham City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | v Millwall | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 31 Oct | at Lincoln | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Cardiff | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v QPR | 3-0 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Preston | 4-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at West Brom | 1-0 | W |
Birmingham's score comes first.
Bolton Wanderers
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Charlton | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Bristol City | 2-3 | L |
| Fri 23 Oct | v Middlesbrough | 1-5 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Southampton | 0-0 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Wolves | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Stoke | 1-2 | L |
Bolton's score comes first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 4 Mar 2025 | League One | Bolton 3-1 Birmingham | 1-1 | 9 |
| Tue 22 Oct 2024 | League One | Birmingham 2-0 Bolton | 1-0 | 7 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +11 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 27 |
| 3 | Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 17 |
| 17 | Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff City | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November