Barrow vs Eastleigh prediction
Without the margin, the market has draw 23%, Barrow 58% and Eastleigh 19%, from an average of 6 UK bookmakers.
The model's view of the match
Barrow's last 6 matches brought 6 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses, with 15 goals scored and 6 conceded. Eastleigh's last 6 games gave them 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses, with 7 scored and 14 against.
So far this season, Barrow saw both teams score in 64% of matches, and 71% went over 2.5 goals; Eastleigh's rates are 67% and 47%.
The likeliest outcome in our model is a Barrow win at 60%, with the draw on 22% and Eastleigh 18%. It works from expected goals: 1.99 for Barrow, 1.00 for Eastleigh. Removing the margin, UK bookmakers put it at 58%, close to our number.
Score prediction: Barrow 2-0 Eastleigh. One exact score comes out on top: 1-1 at 10.6%. Inside the result we lean to, 2-0 is the most likely score.
Stats for Barrow v Eastleigh
| Per game |  Barrow |  Eastleigh |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.2 / 4.0 | 3.4 / 6.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Per game | Barrow | Eastleigh |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 15 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.79 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.29 | 1.60 |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 13% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.3 / 4.4 | 3.9 / 5.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| Per game | Barrow | Eastleigh |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.83 | 0.57 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.83 | 1.86 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.3 / 4.7 | 3.0 / 6.3 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.8 | 2.1 |
Fair prices and the best UK odds
| Match result | Barrow win | 60% | 4/6 | 8/13 Betfred | -4.2% |
| Draw | 22% | 7/2 | 3/1 bet365 | -10.3% | |
| Eastleigh win | 18% | 9/2 | 4/1 bet365 | -11.5% | |
| Double chance | Barrow or draw | 82% | 2/9 | ||
| Eastleigh or draw | 40% | 6/4 | |||
| Draw no bet | Barrow | 77% | 3/10 | ||
| Eastleigh | 23% | 10/3 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 4/5 | ||
| No | 45% | 5/4 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 81% | 1/4 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 8/11 | 8/13 bet365 | -6.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 11/8 | 5/4 bet365 | -4.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 15/8 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Barrow and yes | 29% | 5/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Eastleigh and yes | 10% | 9/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Barrow and over 2.5 | 41% | 6/4 | ||
| Eastleigh and over 2.5 | 11% | 17/2 | |||
| Barrow and under 2.5 | 19% | 4/1 | |||
| Eastleigh and under 2.5 | 7% | 14/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Barrow / Barrow | 39% | 13/8 | ||
| Draw / Barrow | 19% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 12% | 7/1 | |||
| Eastleigh / Eastleigh | 10% | 9/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 53% | 10/11 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 42% | 11/8 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 64% | 4/7 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 48% | 11/10 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk, which carries only match odds plus over/under 2.5; edge shows where we have both numbers.
Players set to start
Barrow 4-1-3-2
- Winterbottom, Ben.GK
- Oakley, Marcel.DEF
- Latty-Fairweather, Thierry.DEF
- Benjamin, Xavier.DEF
- Raphael-Pijus OtegbayoDEF
- Kalambayi, Paul.DEF
- Allen, Arian.MID
- Harper, Rekeem.MID
- Cameron, Innes.FWD
- Thompson, Seb.FWD
- Ward, Keaton.MID
Eastleigh 4-2-3-1
- Townsend, Nick.GK
- Bakare, Ibrahim.DEF
- Johnson, Reece.DEF
- Cousins, Jordan.MID
- Eweka, Temitope.DEF
- Dobson-Ventura, Tommy.DEF
- Rankine, Dion.MID
- Williams, Jonny.MID
- Blair, Aaron.FWD
- Hawkins, Oliver.MID
- Dickov, Max.MID
The starting elevens were read from ESPN on Wednesday 4 November, 09:12.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
Eastleigh, 16 games; Barrow, 15 games. This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored by minute.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 10.0, with Barrow 5.5, Eastleigh 4.5 and a league rate of 9.9.
- Expected yellow cards: 4.7(league 3.8, referee adjusted)
Form in recent matches
Barrow
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 27 Oct | at Halifax | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Tamworth | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Wealdstone | 2-1 | W |
| Tue 29 Sep | v Scunthorpe | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Southend | 4-2 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Aldershot | 1-0 | W |
Barrow's score comes first.
Eastleigh
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct | at Forest Green | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Boston Utd | 4-2 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Hornchurch | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Woking | 1-3 | L |
| Wed 30 Sep | v Southend | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Harrogate | 1-4 | L |
Eastleigh's score comes first.