Barrow vs Carlisle United prediction
What we make of it
In Barrow's last 6 matches, they won 5, drew 1 and lost 0, with 15 scored and 7 conceded. Across their last 6 matches, Carlisle recorded 5 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses, with 14 goals scored and 4 conceded.
For Barrow this season, both teams scored in 67% of games and 67% went over 2.5 goals. Carlisle's figures are 75% and 62%.
Since August 2024, our results show 2 meetings: 0 Barrow wins, 2 Carlisle wins and 0 draws. The latest meeting, on Thursday 27 February 2025, finished with Barrow 0-1 Carlisle.
The model expects 1.53 goals for Barrow and 1.51 for Carlisle. On those figures, a Barrow win is likeliest at 38%, the draw stands at 25% and Carlisle 37%.
We predict a Barrow win, 2-1 against Carlisle United. 1-1 at 11.7% is the single likeliest exact score. As for the result we lean to, 2-1 is the likeliest score in it.
Stats: Barrow v Carlisle
| Per game |  Barrow |  Carlisle |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.6 / 3.4 | 6.2 / 4.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Per game | Barrow | Carlisle |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 15 | 16 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.73 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.27 | 1.44 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 19% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.1 / 4.2 | 6.1 / 4.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Per game | Barrow | Carlisle |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.71 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.86 | 1.12 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 12% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.9 / 4.3 | 5.8 / 4.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| Per game | Barrow | Carlisle |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.0 / 4.5 | 4.5 / 4.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 3.5 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Barrow win | 38% | 13/8 |
| Draw | 25% | 29/10 | |
| Carlisle win | 37% | 17/10 | |
| Double chance | Barrow or draw | 63% | 4/7 |
| Carlisle or draw | 62% | 8/13 | |
| Draw no bet | Barrow | 51% | evens |
| Carlisle | 49% | evens | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 8/13 |
| No | 38% | 13/8 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 81% | 2/9 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 8/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 7/5 | |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 7/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Barrow and yes | 21% | 18/5 |
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Carlisle and yes | 21% | 4/1 | |
| Result and goals | Barrow and over 2.5 | 25% | 29/10 |
| Carlisle and over 2.5 | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Barrow and under 2.5 | 12% | 7/1 | |
| Carlisle and under 2.5 | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Barrow / Barrow | 23% | 17/5 |
| Carlisle / Carlisle | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Draw / Barrow | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 57% | 8/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 59% | 8/11 |
| Over 4.5 | 42% | 11/8 |
Our fair price equals 1 divided by our chance estimate.
Predicted starting line-ups
Barrow 4-1-3-2
- Winterbottom, Ben.GK
- Oakley, Marcel.DEF
- Latty-Fairweather, Thierry.DEF
- Benjamin, Xavier.DEF
- The player is Raphael-Pijus Otegbayo.DEF
- Kalambayi, Paul.DEF
- Allen, Arian.MID
- Harper, Rekeem.MID
- Cameron, Innes.FWD
- Thompson, Seb.FWD
- Ward, Keaton.MID
They began the match against Eastleigh on Sat 31 Oct.
Carlisle 3-5-2
- Desbois, Adam.GK
- Duru, Leo.MID
- Williams, Joshua.MID
- Nicholson, Bradley.DEF
- Feeney, Morgan.DEF
- Richardson, Kenton.DEF
- Whelan, Callum.MID
- Jenks, Teddy.MID
- Linney, Regan.FWD
- Ajiboye, David.FWD
- Camps, Callum.MID
They started Sat 31 Oct at Altrincham.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
For Barrow, the total is 15 games. For Carlisle, 16 games.
Cards and corners
- Expected corners are 10.4, with Barrow 5.0 and Carlisle 5.3; the league average is 10.0.
- Yellow cards expected: 4.3(league 3.8)
Form guide
Barrow
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Eastleigh | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 27 Oct | at Halifax | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Tamworth | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Wealdstone | 2-1 | W |
| Tue 29 Sep | v Scunthorpe | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Southend | 4-2 | W |
Read the scores with Barrow first.
Carlisle United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Altrincham | 4-2 | W |
| Wed 28 Oct | v Harrogate | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Solihull | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Kidderminster | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Aldershot | 3-1 | W |
| Tue 29 Sep | at Fylde | 2-0 | W |
The scores are listed with Carlisle first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 27 Feb 2025 | League Two | Barrow 0-1 Carlisle | 0-1 | 5 |
| Sat 17 Aug 2024 | League Two | Carlisle 1-0 Barrow | 1-0 | 12 |