Barnsley vs Oxford United prediction
After removing the margin, the average across 6 UK bookmakers puts Barnsley at 37%, the draw at 25% and Oxford Utd 39%.
What the model made of it
In the League One, Barnsley have 9 points from 12 games and sit 23rd. With 23 points from 12 games, Oxford Utd sit 4th, 14 points ahead.
Barnsley's last 6 gave them 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, with 8 scored and 13 conceded. Oxford Utd's last 6 saw 3 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses, with 7 scored and 4 conceded.
So far this season, both teams scored in 73% of Barnsley games, and 73% of them had more than 2.5 goals; Oxford Utd's two figures are 64% and 64%. Barnsley create 1.35 expected goals per game and concede 1.60, while Oxford Utd create 1.40 and concede 1.60.
Expected goals stand at 1.27 for Barnsley, while Oxford Utd have 1.63. From those figures, the model rates an Oxford Utd win as likeliest at 45%, the draw 26% and Barnsley 29%. We rate that chance above the market because UK bookmakers, once their margin is removed, put it at 39%.
Barnsley 1-2 Oxford United is the predicted score. At 12.1%, 1-1 has the highest chance of any single exact score. Within the result we lean to, the likeliest score is 1-2.
Stats for Barnsley v Oxford Utd
| Per game |  Barnsley |  Oxford Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.4 / 9.4 | 4.8 / 6.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.32 / 1.93 | 1.50 / 1.74 |
| Per game | Barnsley | Oxford Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.73 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.91 | 0.91 |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 36% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.7 / 6.2 | 4.5 / 6.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.35 / 1.60 | 1.40 / 1.60 |
| Per game | Barnsley | Oxford Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 9.6 / 6.4 | 3.6 / 7.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.68 / 1.98 | 1.30 / 2.01 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Barnsley win | 29% | 5/2 | 13/8 Paddy Power | -24.0% |
| Draw | 26% | 3/1 | 10/3 BetVictor | +7.8% | |
| Oxford Utd win | 45% | 6/5 | 6/4 Betway | +10.4% | |
| Double chance | Barnsley or draw | 55% | 5/6 | ||
| Oxford Utd or draw | 71% | 2/5 | |||
| Draw no bet | Barnsley | 39% | 6/4 | ||
| Oxford Utd | 61% | 4/6 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 8/11 | ||
| No | 41% | 11/8 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 79% | 1/4 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 4/5 | 8/15 bet365 | -15.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 5/4 | 11/8 bet365 | +6.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 2/1 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Barnsley and yes | 16% | 11/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Oxford Utd and yes | 23% | 10/3 | |||
| Result and goals | Barnsley and over 2.5 | 19% | 9/2 | ||
| Oxford Utd and over 2.5 | 30% | 5/2 | |||
| Barnsley and under 2.5 | 11% | 17/2 | |||
| Oxford Utd and under 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 | |||
| Half time / full time | Oxford Utd / Oxford Utd | 28% | 5/2 | ||
| Barnsley / Barnsley | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Draw / Oxford Utd | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 72% | 2/5 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 62% | 8/13 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 61% | 4/6 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 44% | 5/4 |
A fair price is 1 divided by our chance. You can see bookmaker odds at football-data.co.uk. That site lists match prices and over/under 2.5 only, and our edge marks where both figures are present.
Opening line-ups
Barnsley 4-2-3-1
- Slicker, Cieran.GK
- Kay, Arley.DEF
- Larkeche, Ziyad.DEF
- Connell, Luca.MID
- Gale, Sam.DEF
- Shepherd, Jack.DEF
- Yoganathan, Vimal.MID
- Kelly, Patrick.MID
- Ademeyo, Tobi.FWD
- McGeehan, Cameron.MID
- Cleary, Reyes.MID
Formation: Oxford Utd 4-2-3-1.
- Cumming, Jamie.GK
- Spencer, Brodie.DEF
- Currie, Jack.DEF
- Andrews, Kai.MID
- Helik, Michal.DEF
- Long, Sam.DEF
- Lynch, Luka.MID
- Sibley, Louie.MID
- Harris, Mark.FWD
- Goodrham, Tyler.MID
- Dembele, Siriki.MID
ESPN provided the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
Barnsley, 15 games and Oxford Utd, 14 games. This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored by minute.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 12.0 (league 10.4; Barnsley 6.3, Oxford Utd 5.7).
- Yellow cards expected: 4.4 (league 3.7, referee adjusted).
Form in recent matches
Barnsley
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | at Reading | 1-2 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Luton | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Cambridge | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Stockport | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Leicester | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 15 Sep | at Peterborough | 3-3 | D |
Barnsley appears first in the scores.
Oxford United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 27 Oct | v Stockport | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Bradford | 0-0 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Wigan | 2-1 | W |
| Thu 15 Oct | at Mansfield | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Notts County | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Cambridge | 1-1 | D |
Here the scores read Oxford Utd first.
The League One table
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |  Stockport County | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +12 | 26 |
| 3 |  Luton Town | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 24 |
| 4 | Oxford United | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 |  Plymouth Argyle | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +2 | 23 |
| 6 |  Reading | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +12 | 22 |
| 21 |  Wigan Athletic | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 |  Peterborough United | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 10 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 24 |  Bromley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -20 | 9 |
The standings come from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.