Altrincham vs Notts County prediction
Our breakdown
This FA Cup tie pairs a National League side with a League One side, 2 divisions apart. Both clubs get rated on one scale, one drawn from league matches and earlier cup ties.
Over their last 6, Altrincham took 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 9 goals for and 9 against. In their last 6, Notts County recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 7.
So far this season, 69% of Altrincham games saw both teams score, and 75% finished over 2.5 goals. For Notts County, those figures are 58% and 25%.
Our model rates a Notts County win as the most likely outcome, 66% (Altrincham 13%, the draw 21%). That comes from expected goals of 2.09 for Notts County against 0.83 for Altrincham.
We predict Altrincham 0-2 Notts County.
Stats for Altrincham v Notts County
| Per game |  Altrincham |  Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.4 / 4.6 | 4.0 / 6.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.0 | 3.4 |
| Per game | Altrincham | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 16 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 1.08 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.3 / 4.1 | 4.2 / 5.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| Per game | Altrincham | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.88 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.38 | 1.33 |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 88% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.1 / 3.1 | 3.7 / 7.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.1 | 2.3 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Altrincham win | 13% | 13/2 |
| Draw | 21% | 4/1 | |
| Notts County win | 66% | 1/2 | |
| Double chance | Altrincham or draw | 34% | 2/1 |
| Notts County or draw | 87% | 2/13 | |
| Draw no bet | Altrincham | 17% | 5/1 |
| Notts County | 83% | 1/5 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | evens |
| No | 50% | evens | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 79% | 1/4 |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 4/5 | |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 5/4 | |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 2/1 | |
| Result and BTTS | Altrincham and yes | 7% | 14/1 |
| Draw and yes | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Notts County and yes | 28% | 5/2 | |
| Result and goals | Altrincham and over 2.5 | 7% | 12/1 |
| Notts County and over 2.5 | 44% | 5/4 | |
| Altrincham and under 2.5 | 6% | 16/1 | |
| Notts County and under 2.5 | 23% | 7/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Notts County / Notts County | 44% | 5/4 |
| Draw / Notts County | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Altrincham / Altrincham | 7% | 12/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 46% | 6/5 |
| Over 10.5 | 35% | 15/8 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 58% | 8/11 |
| Over 4.5 | 41% | 6/4 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. For this match, our feed has no UK bookmaker prices; football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition.
Line-ups we predict
Altrincham 5-3-2
- Isted, Harvey.GK
- Banks, Lewis.DEF
- Taylor, Samuel.DEF
- Barnes, Samuel.DEF
- Southern-Cooper, Jake.DEF
- Lopata-White, Reuben.DEF
- Crawford, Thomas.MID
- Hinchy, Jack.MID
- Barlow, Aidan.FWD
- Weaver, Lucas.FWD
- Breckin, Kian.MID
Started Sat 31 Oct against Carlisle.
Notts County 3-4-1-2
- Belshaw, James.GK
- Tsaroulla, Nicholas.MID
- Samuels-Smith, Ishé.MID
- Bedeau, Jacob.DEF
- McDonald, Rod.DEF
- Ness, Lucas.DEF
- Finneran, Rory.MID
- Robertson, Scott.MID
- Grant, Conor.MID
- Smyth, Luka.FWD
- Kanu, Daniel.FWD
Started at Mansfield on Sat 31 Oct.
For other clubs, ESPN lists the eleven who started their most recent match. Once ESPN names the confirmed teams, they replace these line-ups about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When each side scores
Altrincham, 16 games covered. Notts County, 13 games. This season's goals by minute come from ESPN match events.
Corners plus cards
- Corners expected 9.4 in total, Altrincham 5.3 and Notts County 4.1, against a league figure of 10.0.
- Yellow cards expected: 4.2 (league 3.8).
Form in recent matches
Altrincham
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Carlisle | 2-4 | L |
| Tue 27 Oct | v Kidderminster | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Yeovil | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Aldershot | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Boreham Wood | 1-3 | L |
| Tue 29 Sep | at Gateshead | 1-0 | W |
Altrincham is listed first in the scores.
Notts County
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Mansfield | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Stockport | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Sheffield Wednesday | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Wycombe | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Oxford | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Reading | 0-2 | L |
Notts County is listed first in the scores.