Altrincham vs Carlisle United prediction
With the margin removed, the market shows Altrincham 32%, draw 26% and Carlisle 42% (average of 6 UK bookmakers).
The model's view
Altrincham's last 6 show 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 10 goals scored and 5 conceded. Carlisle's last 6 show 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 12 goals scored and 7 conceded.
This season, 67% of Altrincham games saw both teams score and 73% went over 2.5 goals. Carlisle's figures are 73% and 60%.
Our results show 2 meetings since August 2024, with Altrincham winning 0, Carlisle winning 2 and 0 draws. On Saturday 31 January 2026, their most recent meeting finished Carlisle 3-1 Altrincham.
Expected goals stand at 1.30 for Altrincham and 1.71 for Carlisle. From those figures, the model rates a Carlisle win at 46%, Altrincham 29% and the draw 25%. With their margin removed, UK bookmakers put it at 42%, so our rating is higher than the market's.
Our predicted score is Altrincham 1-2 Carlisle United. At 11.6%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score; 1-2 is the most likely score within the result we lean to.
Stats for Altrincham v Carlisle
| Per game |  Altrincham |  Carlisle |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.4 / 4.2 | 6.6 / 3.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Per game | Altrincham | Carlisle |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.47 | 1.87 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.33 | 1.40 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.3 / 4.1 | 6.1 / 4.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Per game | Altrincham | Carlisle |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.86 | 1.43 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.1 / 2.9 | 5.9 / 3.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Per game | Altrincham | Carlisle |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.5 | 3.5 |
Fair prices and top UK odds
| Match result | Altrincham win | 29% | 5/2 | 15/8 bet365 | -17.8% |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | 5/2 bet365 | -9.9% | |
| Carlisle win | 46% | 6/5 | 6/5 bet365 | +2.1% | |
| Double chance | Altrincham or draw | 54% | 5/6 | ||
| Carlisle or draw | 71% | 2/5 | |||
| Draw no bet | Altrincham | 38% | 13/8 | ||
| Carlisle | 62% | 8/13 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 4/6 | ||
| No | 40% | 6/4 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 81% | 1/4 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 8/11 | 4/7 bet365 | -9.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 11/8 | 11/8 bet365 | -1.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 15/8 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Altrincham and yes | 16% | 5/1 | ||
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |||
| Carlisle and yes | 25% | 3/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Altrincham and over 2.5 | 19% | 9/2 | ||
| Carlisle and over 2.5 | 31% | 9/4 | |||
| Altrincham and under 2.5 | 10% | 9/1 | |||
| Carlisle and under 2.5 | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Half time / full time | Carlisle / Carlisle | 29% | 5/2 | ||
| Altrincham / Altrincham | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Draw / Carlisle | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 53% | 10/11 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 42% | 11/8 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 48% | 21/20 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 32% | 9/4 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk, which offers over/under 2.5 and match odds only. Edge marks where we have both numbers.
Starting team line-ups
Altrincham 5-3-2
- Isted, Harvey.GK
- Banks, Lewis.DEF
- Taylor, Samuel.DEF
- Barnes, Samuel.DEF
- Southern-Cooper, Jake.DEF
- Lopata-White, Reuben.DEF
- Crawford, Thomas.MID
- Hinchy, Jack.MID
- Barlow, Aidan.FWD
- Weaver, Lucas.FWD
- Breckin, Kian.MID
Carlisle 3-5-2
- Desbois, Adam.GK
- Duru, Leo.MID
- Williams, Joshua.MID
- Nicholson, Bradley.DEF
- Feeney, Morgan.DEF
- Richardson, Kenton.DEF
- Whelan, Callum.MID
- Jenks, Teddy.MID
- Linney, Regan.FWD
- Ajiboye, David.FWD
- Camps, Callum.MID
Wednesday 4 November, 09:12 is when the ESPN starting elevens were read.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Altrincham, 16 games and Carlisle, 16 games. This season's goals scored by minute, based on ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Expected corners: 10.0 in total, split as Altrincham 4.9 and Carlisle 5.1, with the league on 9.9.
- We expect 3.7 yellow cards, adjusting the league figure of 3.8 for the referee.
Form guide
Altrincham
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 27 Oct | v Kidderminster | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Yeovil | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Aldershot | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Boreham Wood | 1-3 | L |
| Tue 29 Sep | at Gateshead | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 26 Sep | v Hornchurch | 3-0 | W |
Scores are listed with Altrincham first.
Carlisle United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct | v Harrogate | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Solihull | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Kidderminster | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Aldershot | 3-1 | W |
| Tue 29 Sep | at Fylde | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 26 Sep | v Woking | 2-5 | L |
Scores are listed with Carlisle first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Jan 2026 | National League | Carlisle 3-1 Altrincham | 3-0 | |
| Sat 20 Sep 2025 | National League | Altrincham 1-2 Carlisle | 1-2 |