Aldershot Town vs Gateshead prediction
With the margin removed, the market has Aldershot 60%, draw 22% and Gateshead 18% (average of 6 UK bookmakers).
What the model found
Aldershot's last 6 gave them 1 win, 0 draws and 5 defeats, with 8 scored and 12 conceded. Gateshead lost 6 and drew 0 with 0 wins in their last 6, scoring 4 and conceding 19.
During the season, 60% of Aldershot's matches featured goals from both sides, while 40% had more than 2.5 goals. Gateshead's rates are 50% and 64%.
Our results cover 4 meetings since August 2024, with Aldershot winning 1, Gateshead winning 1 and 2 ending level. The most recent, on Saturday 11 April 2026, ended Aldershot 0-1 Gateshead.
At 57%, an Aldershot win is the model's likeliest result, ahead of the draw on 23% and Gateshead 20%. It uses 1.94 expected goals for Aldershot and puts Gateshead at 1.09. Once their margin is removed, UK bookmakers have it at 60%, which is higher than our own rating.
Score we expect: Aldershot Town 2-1 Gateshead. For the result we lean toward, 2-1 is the most likely exact score, and 1-1 is the likeliest single score overall at 10.8%.
Stats for Aldershot v Gateshead
| Per game |  Aldershot |  Gateshead |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 5.6 | 3.0 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Per game | Aldershot | Gateshead |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 15 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 0.64 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.27 | 2.36 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 7% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.3 / 5.3 | 2.9 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Per game | Aldershot | Gateshead |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.57 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.14 | 2.75 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 88% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.9 / 5.4 | 2.8 / 4.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Per game | Aldershot | Gateshead |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.8 | 2.8 |
Fair prices plus the best UK odds
| Match result | Aldershot win | 57% | 4/5 | 8/15 bet365 | -13.3% |
| Draw | 23% | 10/3 | 10/3 Paddy Power | -3.0% | |
| Gateshead win | 20% | 4/1 | 9/2 BetVictor | +6.2% | |
| Double chance | Aldershot or draw | 80% | 1/4 | ||
| Gateshead or draw | 43% | 5/4 | |||
| Draw no bet | Aldershot | 74% | 4/11 | ||
| Gateshead | 26% | 11/4 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 8/11 | ||
| No | 43% | 11/8 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 81% | 2/9 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 8/11 | 4/7 bet365 | -8.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 11/8 | 11/8 bet365 | -2.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 7/4 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Aldershot and yes | 28% | 5/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Gateshead and yes | 11% | 8/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Aldershot and over 2.5 | 39% | 13/8 | ||
| Gateshead and over 2.5 | 13% | 7/1 | |||
| Aldershot and under 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Gateshead and under 2.5 | 7% | 12/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Aldershot / Aldershot | 36% | 7/4 | ||
| Draw / Aldershot | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 12% | 7/1 | |||
| Gateshead / Gateshead | 12% | 15/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 37% | 7/4 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 27% | 11/4 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 60% | 4/6 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 43% | 11/8 |
Fair price = 1 over our chance. We take bookmaker prices from football-data.co.uk. It lists match odds and only over/under 2.5; edge marks where both figures are available.
Players set to start
Aldershot 4-2-3-1
- Hayes, Nicholas.GK
- Dyce, Tyrese.DEF
- Harfield, Oliver.DEF
- Odusanya, Dominic.MID
- Mohammed-Idris OshilajaDEF
- Stickland, Michael.DEF
- Peart, Brody.MID
- Lawless, Conor.MID
- Abrahams, Tristan.FWD
- Tuma, Basil.MID
- Sandah, Hakeem.MID
Gateshead 4-2-3-1
- Jameson, Peter.GK
- Lavery, Thomas.DEF
- Lankshear, Alex.DEF
- Home, Josh.MID
- Williams, Ben.DEF
- Ferguson, David.DEF
- Bowen, Sam.MID
- John, Fenton.MID
- Hiwula, Jordi.FWD
- Chadwick, Billy.MID
- Chapman, Harry.MID
The starting elevens come from ESPN and were read Wednesday 4 November, 09:12.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Games covered: Aldershot, 16 and Gateshead, 15 games. This season's goals scored by minute come from ESPN match events.
Corners plus cards
- Expected corners: 8.6 in total, from Aldershot 4.5 and Gateshead 4.1, with the league on 9.9.
- The referee-adjusted figure for expected yellow cards is 4.4, compared with 3.8 in the league.
Form guide
Aldershot Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct | at Sutton | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Wealdstone | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Altrincham | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Carlisle | 1-3 | L |
| Tue 29 Sep | at Hornchurch | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 26 Sep | v Tamworth | 5-1 | W |
Aldershot's score comes first.
Gateshead
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 27 Oct | at Boston Utd | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Halifax | 1-4 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Worthing | 1-2 | L |
| Tue 29 Sep | v Altrincham | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Wealdstone | 0-4 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Southend | 1-6 | L |
Gateshead's score comes first.
Head to head
| Sat 11 Apr 2026 | National League | Aldershot 0-1 Gateshead | 0-1 | |
| Sat 30 Aug 2025 | National League | Gateshead 3-3 Aldershot | 1-2 | |
| Sat 8 Mar 2025 | National League | Aldershot 3-1 Gateshead | 1-1 | |
| Sat 16 Nov 2024 | National League | Gateshead 2-2 Aldershot | 2-1 |