AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch prediction
With the margin removed, the market average from 6 UK bookmakers has AFC Fylde 54%, draw 23% and Hornchurh 23%.
The model's view
In the last 6, AFC Fylde won 3 and lost 3, with 0 draws; they scored 7 and conceded 10. Hornchurh's last 6 brought 2 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats, with 6 goals scored and 11 conceded.
Across the season, 67% of AFC Fylde matches saw both teams score, and 73% went past 2.5 goals; Hornchurh's numbers are 40% and 67%.
According to the model, the likeliest result is an AFC Fylde win at 56% (draw 23%, Hornchurh 21%). That comes from expected goals: AFC Fylde 1.96, Hornchurh 1.11. Take the margin out of UK bookmakers' prices and you get 54%, so we rate that higher than what the market says.
AFC Fylde 2-1 AFC Hornchurch is our predicted score. Of all exact scores, 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.7%, and inside the result we lean to, 2-1 is the likeliest score.
Stats for AFC Fylde v Hornchurh
| Per game |  AFC Fylde | Hornchurh |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.0 / 5.6 | 7.4 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Per game | AFC Fylde | Hornchurh |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.80 | 1.13 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.53 | 1.53 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 27% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.7 / 4.7 | 5.5 / 6.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Per game | AFC Fylde | Hornchurh |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.71 | 0.88 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.29 | 2.38 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 88% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.6 / 4.4 | 5.2 / 7.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | AFC Fylde win | 56% | 4/5 | 4/6 bet365 | -5.8% |
| Draw | 23% | 10/3 | 3/1 bet365 | -8.0% | |
| Hornchurh win | 21% | 4/1 | 3/1 bet365 | -15.5% | |
| Double chance | AFC Fylde or draw | 79% | 1/4 | ||
| Hornchurh or draw | 44% | 5/4 | |||
| Draw no bet | AFC Fylde | 73% | 4/11 | ||
| Hornchurh | 27% | 11/4 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 8/11 | ||
| No | 42% | 11/8 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 82% | 2/9 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 4/6 | 4/9 bet365 | -14.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 6/4 | 7/4 bet365 | +10.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 7/4 | |||
| Result and BTTS | AFC Fylde and yes | 29% | 5/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Hornchurh and yes | 12% | 15/2 | |||
| Result and goals | AFC Fylde and over 2.5 | 39% | 13/8 | ||
| Hornchurh and over 2.5 | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| AFC Fylde and under 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Hornchurh and under 2.5 | 7% | 12/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | AFC Fylde / AFC Fylde | 36% | 7/4 | ||
| Draw / AFC Fylde | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 12% | 7/1 | |||
| Hornchurh / Hornchurh | 12% | 15/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 58% | 8/11 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 47% | 11/10 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 45% | 5/4 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 28% | 5/2 |
Fair price is 1 divided by the chance we give it. At football-data.co.uk you find the bookmaker prices, with match odds plus only over/under 2.5. Edge shows where we have both numbers.
The starting elevens
AFC Fylde 4-2-3-1
- Pickford, George.GK
- Drewe, Aaron.DEF
- Broad, Harvey.DEF
- Merrie, Christopher.MID
- Lancaster, Will.DEF
- Whelan, Corey.DEF
- Thomas, Luca.MID
- Whelan, Tom.MID
- Matthews-Lewis, Millar.FWD
- McCormick, Luke.MID
- Malcolm, Kyrell.MID
Hornchurh 5-3-2
- Nasta, Arthur.GK
- Weston, Myles.DEF
- Pegrum, Charlie.DEF
- Greenidge, William.DEF
- Thomas Dallison-LisbonDEF
- Edwards, Frankie.DEF
- Sandat, Henry.MID
- Miles BrackingMID
- Balanta, Ángelo.FWD
- Loft, Ryan.FWD
- Wraight, Tom.MID
Starting elevens: ESPN, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:12.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring by minute
AFC Fylde, 16 games , and Hornchurh, 16 games. This season's goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events.
Corners plus cards
- Corners expected: 10.5 overall (AFC Fylde 5.4, Hornchurh 5.1; the league sits at 10.0).
- Yellow cards expected: 3.5 (league 3.8).
Latest form
AFC Fylde
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 27 Oct | v Hartlepool | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Boreham Wood | 0-4 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Scunthorpe | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Southend | 1-3 | L |
| Tue 29 Sep | v Carlisle | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Boston Utd | 1-0 | W |
Read the scores with AFC Fylde first.
AFC Hornchurch
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 27 Oct | v Yeovil | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Hartlepool | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Eastleigh | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Harrogate | 0-3 | L |
| Tue 29 Sep | v Aldershot | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Altrincham | 0-3 | L |
Here the scores read Hornchurh first.