Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon prediction
Once the margin is removed, the market has Stockport 75%, Wimbledon 10% and draw 16% (the average across 6 UK bookmakers).
What the model found
In League One, Stockport hold 2nd place with 26 points across 14 games. Wimbledon sit 18th in the table after 13 games, earning 13 points, 13 points behind.
Stockport's last 6 brought 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 8 goals scored and 3 conceded. Wimbledon's last 6 gave them 0 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats, with 3 goals scored and 12 conceded.
So far this season, 46% of Stockport matches saw both teams score and 46% went over 2.5 goals; Wimbledon stand at 33% and 42%. Stockport create 2.01 expected goals a game and allow 1.07, whereas Wimbledon create 0.86 of their own and allow 1.53.
Since August 2024 our results show 2 meetings: 2 Stockport wins, 0 for Wimbledon, and 0 draws. Their most recent meeting, on Wednesday 15 April 2026, ended AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Stockport.
A Stockport win is the likeliest result in the model at 67% (the draw 21%, Wimbledon 12%), on expected goals of 2.09 for Stockport, 0.78 for Wimbledon. With their margin removed, UK bookmakers have this at 75%, so the market sees it as more likely than we do.
Score prediction: Stockport County 2-0 AFC Wimbledon.
Stats for Stockport v Wimbledon
| Per game |  Stockport |  Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.8 / 3.6 | 6.0 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| xG for / against | 2.34 / 0.84 | 0.84 / 1.82 |
| Per game | Stockport | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.85 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.58 |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 42% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.2 / 3.6 | 5.8 / 5.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| xG for / against | 2.01 / 1.07 | 0.86 / 1.53 |
| Per game | Stockport | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.33 | 0.83 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.33 | 2.50 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 8.7 / 3.3 | 5.0 / 4.3 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.92 / 1.14 | 0.86 / 1.36 |
| Per game | Stockport | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.0 / 7.5 | 7.5 / 3.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.5 | 0.5 |
Fair prices and the best UK odds
| Match result | Stockport win | 67% | 1/2 | 2/7 Betway | -14.8% |
| Draw | 21% | 4/1 | 5/1 bet365 | +23.5% | |
| Wimbledon win | 12% | 7/1 | 10/1 BetVictor | +29.4% | |
| Double chance | Stockport or draw | 88% | 1/7 | ||
| Wimbledon or draw | 33% | 2/1 | |||
| Draw no bet | Stockport | 84% | 2/11 | ||
| Wimbledon | 16% | 11/2 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 11/10 | ||
| No | 52% | 10/11 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 79% | 2/7 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 5/6 | 1/2 bet365 | -19.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 6/5 | 13/8 bet365 | +17.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 2/1 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Stockport and yes | 28% | 11/4 | ||
| Draw and yes | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Wimbledon and yes | 6% | 16/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Stockport and over 2.5 | 43% | 5/4 | ||
| Wimbledon and over 2.5 | 7% | 14/1 | |||
| Stockport and under 2.5 | 24% | 10/3 | |||
| Wimbledon and under 2.5 | 6% | 16/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Stockport / Stockport | 44% | 5/4 | ||
| Draw / Stockport | 21% | 4/1 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 12% | 15/2 | |||
| Wimbledon / Wimbledon | 7% | 14/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 64% | 4/7 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 54% | 5/6 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 37% | 7/4 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 22% | 7/2 |
A fair price is 1 divided by our chance. Bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk, which covers match odds and only over/under 2.5; edge marks where both figures are available.
The starting elevens
Stockport 3-4-3
- Oliver Whatmuff is listed.GK
- Joshua Dacres-Cogley is listed.MID
- Ethan Ennis is listed.MID
- Ethan Pye is listed.DEF
- Eoghan O'Connell is listed.DEF
- Mamadou Jobe is listed.DEF
- Oliver Norwood is listed.MID
- Lewis Fiorini is listed.MID
- Kyle Wootton is listed.FWD
- Jack Diamond is listed.FWD
- Benoný Andrésson is listed.FWD
Wimbledon 5-3-2
- Josef Bursik is listed.GK
- The name is James Tilley.DEF
- The name is Aron Sasu.DEF
- The name is Steve Seddon.DEF
- The name is Ryan Johnson.DEF
- The name is Andy Yiadom.DEF
- The name is Alistair Smith.MID
- The name is Ollie Harrison.MID
- The name is Harry Cornick.FWD
- The name is Jayden Stockley.FWD
- The name is Myles Hippolyte.MID
The starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11, come from ESPN.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
For Stockport, 15 games; for Wimbledon, 15 games. This season's minute-by-minute goals come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Total corners expected are 11.1, with Stockport 6.1 and Wimbledon 5.1; the league figure is 10.4.
- Expected yellow cards: 3.1 (league 3.7, adjusted for referee).
Form guide
Stockport County
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 27 Oct | at Oxford | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Notts County | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Doncaster | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Bromley | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Barnsley | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 26 Sep | v Peterborough | 1-0 | W |
Scores are listed with Stockport first.
AFC Wimbledon
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | v Wycombe | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Mansfield | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Sheffield Wednesday | 0-5 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Plymouth | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Cambridge | 1-1 | D |
| Thu 17 Sep | v Milton Keynes Dons | 0-0 | D |
Scores are listed with Wimbledon first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 15 Apr 2026 | League One | AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Stockport | 0-0 | 10 |
| Sat 28 Mar 2026 | League One | Stockport 3-0 AFC Wimbledon | 2-0 | 11 |
League One standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Huddersfield Town | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +12 | 26 |
| 3 |  Luton Town | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 24 |
| 4 |  Oxford United | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 16 |  Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 |  Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 |  Blackpool | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 20 |  Doncaster Rovers | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
ESPN provided these standings, dated Wednesday 4 November.