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Motherwell vs St Mirren prediction

Motherwell crestMotherwell
1-0full time, Sat 31 Oct
St MirrenSt Mirren crest
1-0predicted score (13%)
47%both teams score
47%over 2.5 goals
1.74-0.81expected goals

After removing the margin, an average of 6 UK bookmakers gives Motherwell 52%, draw 24% and St Mirren 24%.

What the model made of it

With 12 points from 12 games, Motherwell are 9th in the Scottish Premiership. St Mirren hold 8th spot with 14 points from 12, sitting 2 points clear.

Motherwell's last 6 games brought 0 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats, with 5 scored and 15 conceded. From their last 6 games, St Mirren took 1 win and 1 draw, lost 4, scored 4 and conceded 14.

For St Mirren this season, the rates are 45% and 55%. In Motherwell games, both teams scored 45% of the time and 64% went over 2.5 goals. Motherwell's expected goals are 1.43 a game, and they allow 1.63. St Mirren's figures are 1.35 created and 1.77 allowed.

Our results show 7 meetings since August 2024: Motherwell took 4 wins, St Mirren took 0 and 3 were draws. That latest meeting finished St Mirren 3-3 Motherwell, played on Sunday 30 August 2026.

Expected goals stand at 1.74 for Motherwell and 0.81 for St Mirren. From these, the model rates a Motherwell win as most likely at 59% (the draw 25%, St Mirren 17%). We rate this above the market because UK bookmakers put it at 52% once their margin is taken out.

Motherwell 1-0 St Mirren is the predicted score.

Stats for Motherwell v St Mirren

Per gameMotherwell crestMotherwellSt Mirren crestSt Mirren
Games55
Goals scored a game1.000.80
Goals conceded a game2.202.60
Both teams scored60%60%
Over 2.5 goals60%80%
Clean sheets0%0%
Corners won / conceded5.6 / 6.03.4 / 5.0
Yellow cards a game1.43.2
xG for / against1.47 / 1.641.13 / 2.01

Best UK odds and fair prices

Match resultMotherwell win59%8/114/5 Betfred+5.7%
Draw25%3/13/1 bet365-1.2%
St Mirren win17%5/13/1 bet365-33.7%
Double chanceMotherwell or draw83%1/5
St Mirren or draw41%11/8
Draw no betMotherwell78%2/7
St Mirren22%7/2
Both teams to scoreYes47%11/10
No53%10/11
GoalsOver 1.573%4/11
Over 2.547%11/108/13 bet365-23.9%
Under 2.553%10/115/4 bet365+22.0%
Over 3.525%3/1
Result and BTTSMotherwell and yes23%10/3
Draw and yes16%5/1
St Mirren and yes7%12/1
Result and goalsMotherwell and over 2.534%15/8
St Mirren and over 2.58%11/1
Motherwell and under 2.525%3/1
St Mirren and under 2.58%11/1
Half time / full timeMotherwell / Motherwell38%13/8
Draw / Motherwell19%9/2
Draw / Draw15%11/2
St Mirren / St Mirren9%10/1
CornersOver 9.553%10/11
Over 10.542%11/8
CardsOver 3.553%10/11
Over 4.536%7/4

A fair price is 1 divided by our chance. Bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk, which lists match odds plus over/under 2.5, and no other markets. Edge shows where we have both numbers.

Who starts for each side

Motherwell crestMotherwell 4-2-3-1

  1. Paulsen, Alex.GK
  2. Sparrow, Tom.DEF
  3. Longelo, Emmanuel.DEF
  4. Fadinger, Lukas.MID
  5. Girdwood-Reich, Jake.DEF
  6. Moormann, Martin.DEF
  7. Maswanhise, Tawanda.MID
  8. Hodge, Joseph.MID
  9. Palmer-Houlden, Seb.FWD
  10. Sa'Id, Ibrahim.MID
  11. Kanga, Jardell.MID

St Mirren crestSt Mirren 3-4-2-1

  1. Chapman, Jacob.GK
  2. Ramsay, Calvin.MID
  3. Thomas, Luke.MID
  4. Fieldson, Henry.DEF
  5. Gogic, Alexander.DEF
  6. Fraser, Marcus.DEF
  7. Carr, Ryan.MID
  8. Fraser TaylorMID
  9. Sule, Eseosa.FWD
  10. Phillips, Killian.FWD
  11. Nsio, Paul.FWD

ESPN starting elevens were read Wednesday 4 November, 09:12.

Chances for the correct score

Each score's chance in %, with Motherwell goals listed down the side and St Mirren goals across
012345
08.45.72.60.70.10.0
112.911.74.51.20.20.0
211.89.63.91.10.20.0
36.85.62.30.60.10.0
43.02.41.00.30.10.0
51.00.80.30.10.00.0

Scoring times

121-153216-303331-452246-602161-753276-90

For Motherwell, 12 games and St Mirren, 12 games are covered. This season's ESPN match events show the minutes in which goals were scored.

Cards and corners

Latest form

Motherwell crestMotherwell

The last 6 for Motherwell
Result
Wed 28 Octat St Johnstone2-2D
Sun 25 Octv Hearts0-2L
Sat 17 Octat Kilmarnock2-3L
Sun 11 Octv Celtic0-2L
Sat 19 Sepat Dundee1-2L
Tue 15 Sepv Aberdeen0-4L

Match scores list Motherwell first.

St Mirren crestSt Mirren

St Mirren's last 6
Result
Wed 28 Octv Hibernian1-1D
Sat 24 Octv Dundee2-1W
Sat 17 Octat Aberdeen1-3L
Sat 10 Octat Hearts0-5L
Sat 19 Sepv Dundee United0-3L
Wed 9 Sepat Rangers0-1L

Match scores list St Mirren first.

Head to head

Sun 30 Aug 2026Scottish PremSt Mirren 3-3 Motherwell3-214
Sat 21 Feb 2026Scottish PremSt Mirren 0-5 Motherwell0-211
Sat 3 Jan 2026Scottish PremMotherwell 2-0 St Mirren1-017
Sat 9 Aug 2025Scottish PremSt Mirren 0-0 Motherwell0-011
Sat 15 Mar 2025Scottish PremMotherwell 2-2 St Mirren1-27
Sat 7 Dec 2024Scottish PremSt Mirren 0-1 Motherwell0-09
Sat 28 Sep 2024Scottish PremMotherwell 2-1 St Mirren2-115

Scottish Premiership standings

PosClubPWDLGDPts
6Dundee United crestDundee United11443+016
7St Johnstone crestSt Johnstone12354-414
8St Mirren crestSt Mirren12426-814
9Motherwell crestMotherwell12336-612
10Aberdeen crestAberdeen11326-211
11Kilmarnock crestKilmarnock12237-159

ESPN provided the standings as of Wednesday 4 November.

Further Scottish Premiership predictions