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Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster Rovers prediction

Milton Keynes Dons crestMK Dons
6-1full time, Sat 31 Oct
DoncasterDoncaster Rovers crest
2-1predicted score (10%)
59%both teams score
57%over 2.5 goals
1.79-1.19expected goals

Once the margin is removed, the market has MK Dons 46%, draw 26% and Doncaster 29% (average of 6 UK bookmakers).

What the model showed

MK Dons are in 12th place in the League One table after taking 18 points from 13 games Doncaster sit 20th with 12 from 13, leaving them 6 points behind

Across their last 6, MK Dons recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 8 scored and 9 conceded In Doncaster's last 6 matches, they won 3, drew 0 and lost 3, scoring 7 and conceding 7.

Both sides scored in 67% of MK Dons matches this season, while 50% had more than 2.5 goals. Doncaster's corresponding rates were 50% and 42%. Doncaster create 1.10 expected goals per game and allow 1.41. MK Dons create 1.47 and allow 1.52.

Our results show 2 meetings since August 2024. MK Dons have 0 wins, Doncaster have 1 and 1 ended level Their most recent meeting, Saturday 1 February 2025, ended with Doncaster 2-1 Milton Keynes Dons

The model uses expected goals: MK Dons 1.79, Doncaster 1.19. It rates a MK Dons win as the likeliest result at 51%, with the draw 25% and Doncaster 25% With the margin removed, UK bookmakers put it at 46%, so our rating is higher than the market's.

Our predicted score is Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 Doncaster Rovers. A 1-1 exact score has the highest chance at 11.5%. Within the result we favor, the leading score is 2-1

MK Dons v Doncaster statistics

Per gameMilton Keynes Dons crestMK DonsDoncaster Rovers crestDoncaster
Games55
Goals scored a game1.601.00
Goals conceded a game1.801.40
Both teams scored60%40%
Over 2.5 goals60%40%
Clean sheets20%40%
Corners won / conceded5.4 / 5.05.2 / 6.8
Yellow cards a game1.82.4
xG for / against1.47 / 1.430.73 / 1.86

Fair prices and the best UK odds

Match resultMK Dons win51%evens11/10 Betway+7.0%
Draw25%3/111/4 Paddy Power-9.3%
Doncaster win25%3/15/2 bet365-16.5%
Double chanceMK Dons or draw75%1/3
Doncaster or draw49%21/20
Draw no betMK Dons67%1/2
Doncaster33%2/1
Both teams to scoreYes59%8/11
No41%11/8
GoalsOver 1.580%1/4
Over 2.557%8/114/6 bet365-4.5%
Under 2.543%11/86/5 bet365-7.9%
Over 3.535%15/8
Result and BTTSMK Dons and yes26%11/4
Draw and yes19%9/2
Doncaster and yes14%13/2
Result and goalsMK Dons and over 2.534%15/8
Doncaster and over 2.516%11/2
MK Dons and under 2.517%5/1
Doncaster and under 2.59%10/1
Half time / full timeMK Dons / MK Dons32%9/4
Draw / MK Dons17%5/1
Doncaster / Doncaster14%6/1
Draw / Draw13%13/2
CornersOver 9.555%5/6
Over 10.544%5/4
CardsOver 3.536%7/4
Over 4.521%7/2

Our chance divided into 1 gives the fair price The bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk. It provides match odds plus over/under 2.5 only, and edge shows where both numbers are available

The starting XIs

Milton Keynes Dons crestMK Dons 3-1-4-2

  1. Dennis, William.GK
  2. Silvera, Samuel.MID
  3. Campbell, Elijah.MID
  4. Goode, Charlie.DEF
  5. Ekpiteta, Marvin.DEF
  6. Sanders, Jack.DEF
  7. Crowley, Daniel.MID
  8. Wintle, Ryan.DEF
  9. Nombe, Sam.FWD
  10. Collins, Aaron.FWD
  11. Gilbey, Alex.MID

Doncaster Rovers crestDoncaster 4-2-3-1

  1. Tommy SimkinGK
  2. Sterry, Jamie.DEF
  3. Senior, Jack.DEF
  4. Broadbent, George.MID
  5. Grehan, Sean.DEF
  6. Byrne, Neill.DEF
  7. Thomas, Jordan.MID
  8. Bailey, Owen.MID
  9. May, Alfie.FWD
  10. Hutchinson, Isaac.MID
  11. Ayinde, Leon.MID

ESPN provided the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.

Chances for correct scores

Chance of each score in %, with MK Dons goals down the side and Doncaster goals across
012345
05.75.43.61.40.40.1
18.511.56.42.50.80.2
28.29.75.72.30.70.2
34.95.83.41.40.40.1
42.22.61.50.60.20.0
50.80.90.60.20.10.0

Scoring times

121-154116-302131-455446-603261-758676-90

Games covered: MK Dons, 14 games Doncaster, 15 games. This season's goals by minute come from ESPN match events.

Corners and card counts

Form guide

Milton Keynes Dons crestMilton Keynes Dons

Last 6 for MK Dons
Result
Tue 27 Octv Bromley4-1W
Sat 24 Octat Stevenage1-0W
Tue 20 Octat Blackpool0-2L
Sat 17 Octv Luton2-1W
Sat 10 Octv Reading1-5L
Thu 17 Sepat AFC Wimbledon0-0D

MK Dons scores come first.

Doncaster Rovers crestDoncaster Rovers

Last 6 for Doncaster
Result
Tue 27 Octat Luton1-3L
Sat 24 Octv Sheffield Wednesday2-0W
Tue 20 Octv Stockport0-2L
Sat 17 Octat Leicester1-2L
Sat 10 Octv Burton1-0W
Sat 19 Sepat Peterborough2-0W

Doncaster scores come first.

Head to head

DateCompetitionResultHalf timeCorners
Sat 1 Feb 2025League TwoDoncaster 2-1 Milton Keynes Dons1-09
Sat 21 Sep 2024League TwoMilton Keynes Dons 1-1 Doncaster1-09

League One standings

PosClubPWDLGDPts
10Leicester City crestLeicester City13544+319
11Mansfield Town crestMansfield Town13544+219
12Milton Keynes Dons crestMilton Keynes Dons13463+218
13Wycombe Wanderers crestWycombe Wanderers13463-218
14Leyton Orient crestLeyton Orient13526+517
18AFC Wimbledon crestAFC Wimbledon13346-1213
19Blackpool crestBlackpool12336-412
20Doncaster Rovers crestDoncaster Rovers13337-812
21Wigan Athletic crestWigan Athletic14329-1111
22Peterborough United crestPeterborough United13247-1210

ESPN provided the standings as of Wednesday 4 November.

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