Mansfield Town vs Notts County prediction
With the margin removed, the market has Mansfield 53%, draw 25% and Notts County 22% (an average across 6 UK bookmakers).
What the model made of it
Mansfield sit 11th in the League One, on 19 points from 13 games. Notts County sit 17th on 14 points from 12 games, 5 points behind.
Mansfield's last 6 games brought 3 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats, 12 goals scored and 5 conceded. Across their last 6, Notts County recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses, with 4 goals scored and 8 conceded.
During the season, both teams scored in 64% of Mansfield matches, while 73% had more than 2.5 goals. Notts County's rates are 64% and 27%. Mansfield's expected goals stand at 1.65 a game, with 1.19 allowed; Notts County sit at 1.12 with 1.23 allowed.
Expected goals stand at 1.55 for Mansfield and 1.13 for Notts County, and the model sees a Mansfield win as most likely at 46% (the draw 27%, Notts County 27%). UK bookmakers, with the margin removed, price it at 53%, so the market sees it as likelier than our model does.
The predicted score is Mansfield Town 1-0 Notts County. One exact score stands out as likeliest, 1-1 at 12.7%; within the result we lean to, 1-0 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Mansfield v Notts County
| Per game |  Mansfield |  Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.2 / 4.6 | 3.6 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| xG for / against | 2.30 / 0.79 | 0.87 / 1.54 |
| Per game | Mansfield | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.82 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.45 | 1.27 |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 27% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 9% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.2 / 4.7 | 4.4 / 5.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| xG for / against | 1.65 / 1.19 | 1.12 / 1.23 |
| Per game | Mansfield | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.2 / 3.6 | 3.8 / 6.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.90 / 1.11 | 0.78 / 1.63 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Mansfield win | 46% | 6/5 | 5/6 Betway | -15.3% |
| Draw | 27% | 11/4 | 11/4 bet365 | +1.5% | |
| Notts County win | 27% | 11/4 | 10/3 BetVictor | +18.8% | |
| Double chance | Mansfield or draw | 73% | 4/11 | ||
| Notts County or draw | 54% | 5/6 | |||
| Draw no bet | Mansfield | 63% | 4/7 | ||
| Notts County | 37% | 7/4 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 5/6 | ||
| No | 46% | 6/5 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 75% | 1/3 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 50% | evens | 4/5 bet365 | -9.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | evens | evens bet365 | -0.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 5/2 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Mansfield and yes | 22% | 7/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |||
| Notts County and yes | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| Result and goals | Mansfield and over 2.5 | 28% | 5/2 | ||
| Notts County and over 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 | |||
| Mansfield and under 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Notts County and under 2.5 | 11% | 8/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Mansfield / Mansfield | 28% | 5/2 | ||
| Draw / Mansfield | 16% | 5/1 | |||
| Notts County / Notts County | 16% | 11/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 48% | 21/20 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 38% | 13/8 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 67% | 1/2 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 50% | evens |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Prices come from football-data.co.uk, which lists match odds plus over/under 2.5 and nothing more; edge marks where both numbers are available.
Line-ups for the start of the game
Mansfield 3-1-4-2
- Roberts, Liam.GK
- Moriah-Welsh, Nathan.MID
- McLaughlin, Stephen.MID
- Oshilaja, Deji.DEF
- Bowery, Jordan.DEF
- Sweeney, Ryan.DEF
- Russell, Jonathan.MID
- Reed, Louis.DEF
- Smith, Michael.FWD
- Roberts, Tyler.FWD
- Hendry, Regan.MID
Notts County 3-4-1-2
- Belshaw, James.GK
- Tsaroulla, Nicholas.MID
- Samuels-Smith, Ishé.MID
- Bedeau, Jacob.DEF
- McDonald, Rod.DEF
- Ness, Lucas.DEF
- Finneran, Rory.MID
- Robertson, Scott.MID
- Grant, Conor.MID
- Smyth, Luka.FWD
- Kanu, Daniel.FWD
ESPN's starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11, form the lineup.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Mansfield, 14 games in all; Notts County, 13 games in all. Scoring by minute comes from ESPN match events recorded this season.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 9.6 overall, with the league at 10.4, Mansfield 5.0 and Notts County 4.6.
- After the referee adjustment, 4.8 yellow cards are expected against a league average of 3.7.
Latest form
Mansfield Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | at Blackpool | 4-1 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | at AFC Wimbledon | 3-0 | W |
| Thu 15 Oct | v Oxford | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Bromley | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Burton | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 12 Sep | v Huddersfield | 0-0 | D |
Mansfield comes first in the scores.
Notts County
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | v Stockport | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Sheffield Wednesday | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Wycombe | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Oxford | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Reading | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 12 Sep | v Bradford | 0-1 | L |
Notts County comes first in the scores.
Table for League One
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 |  Leicester City | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Wycombe Wanderers | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | +5 | 17 |
| 15 |  Burton Albion | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 16 |  Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 | Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 |  AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 |  Blackpool | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
The ESPN standings were as of Wednesday 4 November.