Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons prediction
Analysis from our team
With 19 points from 13 games, Mansfield sit 11th in the League One MK Dons sit 12th with 18 points from 13 games, 1 point behind.
From their last 6, Mansfield recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 5 MK Dons' last 6 games show 4 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses, with 14 goals scored and 10 conceded
So far this season, 54% of Mansfield matches featured goals from both sides, while 62% had more than 2.5 goals. For MK Dons, those rates are 69% and 54% Per game, Mansfield's expected goals stand at 1.60 created and 1.20 allowed. MK Dons' figures are 1.66 created and 1.45 allowed
With MK Dons 28% and the draw 25%, Mansfield's 47% is the most likely outcome the model gives. The prediction comes from expected goals: 1.71 for Mansfield, 1.28 for MK Dons.
Score prediction: Mansfield Town 2-1 Milton Keynes Dons At 11.7%, 1-1 is the single likeliest exact score. Within the result we favor, 2-1 is the likeliest score
Stats for Mansfield against MK Dons
| Per game |  Mansfield |  MK Dons |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.0 / 5.2 | 5.8 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 2.06 / 0.96 | 2.10 / 0.83 |
| Per game | Mansfield | MK Dons |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.54 | 1.69 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.38 | 1.54 |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 23% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.2 / 4.6 | 5.3 / 5.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| xG for / against | 1.60 / 1.20 | 1.66 / 1.45 |
| Per game | Mansfield | MK Dons |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.7 / 3.5 | 6.3 / 5.3 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.84 / 1.10 | 1.67 / 1.13 |
Fair prices across markets
| Match result | Mansfield win | 47% | 11/10 |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | |
| MK Dons win | 28% | 13/5 | |
| Double chance | Mansfield or draw | 72% | 2/5 |
| MK Dons or draw | 53% | 10/11 | |
| Draw no bet | Mansfield | 63% | 8/13 |
| MK Dons | 37% | 17/10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 4/6 |
| No | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 81% | 1/4 |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 8/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 11/8 | |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 15/8 | |
| Result and BTTS | Mansfield and yes | 25% | 3/1 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |
| MK Dons and yes | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Result and goals | Mansfield and over 2.5 | 32% | 11/5 |
| MK Dons and over 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Mansfield and under 2.5 | 15% | 11/2 | |
| MK Dons and under 2.5 | 10% | 9/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Mansfield / Mansfield | 29% | 12/5 |
| MK Dons / MK Dons | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Draw / Mansfield | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 55% | 4/5 |
| Over 10.5 | 44% | 5/4 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 42% | 7/5 |
| Over 4.5 | 26% | 14/5 |
A fair price comes from dividing 1 by our chance
Team line-up predictions
Mansfield 3-1-4-2
- Roberts, Liam.GK
- Moriah-Welsh, Nathan.MID
- Bowery, Jordan.MID
- Oshilaja, Deji.DEF
- Knoyle, Kyle.DEF
- Sweeney, Ryan.DEF
- Russell, Jonathan.MID
- Reed, Louis.DEF
- Smith, Michael.FWD
- Oates, Rhys.FWD
- Hewitt, Elliott.MID
They started at Wigan on Tue 3 Nov
MK Dons 3-1-4-2
- Dennis, William.GK
- Silvera, Samuel.MID
- Campbell, Elijah.MID
- Goode, Charlie.DEF
- Ekpiteta, Marvin.DEF
- Sanders, Jack.DEF
- Crowley, Daniel.MID
- Wintle, Ryan.DEF
- Nombe, Sam.FWD
- Collins, Aaron.FWD
- Gilbey, Alex.MID
They began against Doncaster on Sat 31 Oct
Chances by correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
MK Dons, 14 games; Mansfield, 14 games
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 10.2 (league 10.4; Mansfield 5.3, MK Dons 4.9)
- Yellow cards expected 3.3 (league 3.7).
Form guide
Mansfield Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Wigan | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Notts County | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Blackpool | 4-1 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | at AFC Wimbledon | 3-0 | W |
| Thu 15 Oct | v Oxford | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Bromley | 2-1 | W |
Mansfield's score comes first
Milton Keynes Dons
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Doncaster | 6-1 | W |
| Tue 27 Oct | v Bromley | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Stevenage | 1-0 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Blackpool | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Luton | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Reading | 1-5 | L |
MK Dons' score comes first
The League One table
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 |  Leicester City | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 | Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Wycombe Wanderers | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | +5 | 17 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November