Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone prediction
St Johnstone 34%, a draw 27% and Kilmarnock 40%, once the margin is removed (average of 6 UK bookmakers).
The model's view of the match
With 9 points from 12 games, Kilmarnock occupy 11th place in the Scottish Premiership. On 14 points from 12 games, St Johnstone sit 7th, 5 points ahead.
Kilmarnock's last 6 brought 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 7 scored and 12 conceded. St Johnstone recorded 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 6, scoring 5 and conceding 9.
So far this season, 55% of Kilmarnock matches featured goals from both sides, and 64% had more than 2.5 goals. For St Johnstone, those rates were 64% and 45%. Kilmarnock average 1.16 expected goals per game and allow 2.19, while St Johnstone create 1.22 and concede 1.74.
Since August 2024, our results list 5 meetings: 2 Kilmarnock wins, 3 St Johnstone wins and 0 draws. At their latest meeting on Sunday 2 August 2026, the result was St Johnstone 4-3 Kilmarnock.
Our model rates a Kilmarnock win as the likeliest outcome, at 47%, with the draw on 25% and St Johnstone 28%. Those numbers come from expected goals: Kilmarnock 1.75, St Johnstone 1.30. UK bookmakers put it at 40% once their margin is taken out, so our rate for it is higher than the market's.
Our predicted score is Kilmarnock 2-1 St Johnstone. One exact score is the likeliest of them all, 1-1 at 11.4%. Inside the result we lean to, 2-1 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Kilmarnock v St Johnstone
| Per game |  Kilmarnock |  St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.4 / 6.4 | 2.6 / 9.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.36 / 1.98 | 1.02 / 1.86 |
| Per game | Kilmarnock | St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.18 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.36 | 1.55 |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 9% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.9 / 6.7 | 3.1 / 7.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| xG for / against | 1.16 / 2.19 | 1.22 / 1.74 |
| Per game | Kilmarnock | St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.4 / 4.8 | 3.0 / 8.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| xG for / against | 0.81 / 2.89 | 1.01 / 2.17 |
| Per game | Kilmarnock | St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.0 / 5.0 | 5.0 / 6.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 0.79 / 1.77 | 1.77 / 0.79 |
Fair prices and the best UK odds
| Match result | Kilmarnock win | 47% | 11/10 | 6/4 Betway | +20.4% |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | 5/2 bet365 | -10.9% | |
| St Johnstone win | 28% | 5/2 | 15/8 bet365 | -20.9% | |
| Double chance | Kilmarnock or draw | 72% | 2/5 | ||
| St Johnstone or draw | 53% | 10/11 | |||
| Draw no bet | Kilmarnock | 63% | 8/13 | ||
| St Johnstone | 37% | 13/8 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 4/6 | ||
| No | 39% | 6/4 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 81% | 2/9 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 8/11 | 8/11 bet365 | +1.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 11/8 | 11/10 bet365 | -13.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 7/4 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Kilmarnock and yes | 25% | 3/1 | ||
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |||
| St Johnstone and yes | 16% | 11/2 | |||
| Result and goals | Kilmarnock and over 2.5 | 32% | 2/1 | ||
| St Johnstone and over 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Kilmarnock and under 2.5 | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| St Johnstone and under 2.5 | 10% | 9/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Kilmarnock / Kilmarnock | 30% | 9/4 | ||
| St Johnstone / St Johnstone | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Draw / Kilmarnock | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 58% | 8/11 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 47% | 11/10 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 43% | 11/8 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 27% | 11/4 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. The source for bookmaker prices is football-data.co.uk. It covers only match odds and over/under 2.5; edge marks where both values are present.
Team line-ups at the start
Kilmarnock 3-4-1-2
- Mantl, Nico.GK
- Brandon, Jamie.MID
- Ring, Erik.MID
- Stanger, George.DEF
- Deas, Robbie.DEF
- McCarthy, Cathal.DEF
- Tshibola, Aaron.MID
- Lowery, Tom.MID
- Kiltie, Greg.MID
- Hugill, Joe.FWD
- Daniels, Djenario.FWD
St Johnstone 3-4-2-1 shape.
- Steward, Toby.GK
- Todd, Matthew.MID
- Cotterill, Joel.MID
- Alic, Enes.DEF
- Mikulic, Bozo.DEF
- Diabate, Cheick.DEF
- McAlear, Reece.MID
- Holt, Jason.MID
- Schmidt, Danny.FWD
- Steven, Taylor.FWD
- Fowler, Josh.FWD
Wednesday 4 November, 09:12 is when we read the starting elevens from ESPN.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
For Kilmarnock, 12 games; for St Johnstone, 12 games. This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored by minute.
Cards and corners
- With the league at 10.3, expected corners are 10.5 (Kilmarnock 5.8, St Johnstone 4.7).
- After the referee adjustment, expected yellow cards are 3.4 (league 3.8).
Form in recent matches
Kilmarnock
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct | at Dundee | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Falkirk | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Motherwell | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Rangers | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Hearts | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 15 Sep | at Hibernian | 1-0 | W |
Kilmarnock scores are listed first.
St Johnstone
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct | v Motherwell | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Rangers | 0-4 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Dundee United | 1-1 | D |
| Sun 11 Oct | at Aberdeen | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Falkirk | 1-1 | D |
| Wed 9 Sep | v Celtic | 0-1 | L |
St Johnstone scores are listed first.
Head to head
| Sun 2 Aug 2026 | Scottish Prem | St Johnstone 4-3 Kilmarnock | 1-1 | 9 |
| Sat 3 May 2025 | Scottish Prem | St Johnstone 0-2 Kilmarnock | 0-1 | 8 |
| Sat 15 Feb 2025 | Scottish Prem | Kilmarnock 3-1 St Johnstone | 1-0 | 12 |
| Sat 23 Nov 2024 | Scottish Prem | St Johnstone 1-0 Kilmarnock | 0-0 | 18 |
| Sun 11 Aug 2024 | Scottish Prem | Kilmarnock 0-3 St Johnstone | 0-2 | 8 |
League table: Scottish Premiership
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 |  Dundee | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 |  Dundee United | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +0 | 16 |
| 7 | St Johnstone | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 8 |  St Mirren | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 9 |  Motherwell | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
| 12 |  Hibernian | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 8 |
ESPN provides the standings as of Wednesday 4 November.