Wigan Athletic vs Bromley prediction

Wigan

3-2full time, Sat 31 Oct

Bromley

League One
Ground: DW Stadium
Match referee: M Coy, 3.0 cards per game in 58
UK TV coverage: no live match (Saturday blackout)

Wigan scorers: Christian Saydee 18', K'Marni Miller 23', Bradley Burrowes 58'
Bromley goals: Kamarl Grant 6', George Saville 46'

1-0predicted score (11%)

51%both teams score

46%over 2.5 goals

1.44-1.06expected goals

45%28%27%

The margin-free market has Wigan at 51%, the draw at 26% and Bromley 23%, with figures averaged across 6 UK bookmakers.

The model's view

Wigan sit 21st in the League One, earning 11 points from 14 games Bromley sit 24th with 9 points from 13 games, 2 points behind

Wigan's last 6 matches brought 1 win, 0 draws and 5 losses, with 3 goals scored and 9 conceded. Bromley's last 6 brought 1 win, 1 draw and 4 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 13 conceded

This season, 33% of Wigan games featured both teams scoring, while 50% had more than 2.5 goals; Bromley's rates were 58% and 58% Expected goals per game are 1.29 created and 1.89 allowed for Wigan, compared with 0.74 created and 1.90 allowed for Bromley

At 45%, a Wigan win is the model's likeliest result; the draw stands at 28% and Bromley 27%, based on 1.44 and 1.06 expected goals respectively UK bookmakers give it 51% after removing their margin, meaning the market rates it above our figure

The predicted result is Wigan Athletic 1-0 Bromley At 13.3%, 1-1 has the highest chance of any exact score, while 1-0 is the most likely score within the result we favor.

Wigan versus Bromley statistics

Per game	Wigan	Bromley
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	0.60	0.60
Goals conceded a game	1.60	2.40
Both teams scored	40%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Corners won / conceded	4.0 / 5.8	3.0 / 7.8
Yellow cards a game	3.6	2.2
xG for / against	0.68 / 2.38	0.58 / 1.95

Per game	Wigan	Bromley
Games	12	12
Goals scored a game	0.67	0.92
Goals conceded a game	1.67	2.50
Both teams scored	33%	58%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	58%
Clean sheets	17%	8%
Corners won / conceded	5.0 / 5.7	3.2 / 7.5
Yellow cards a game	3.0	1.9
xG for / against	1.29 / 1.89	0.74 / 1.90

Per game	Wigan	Bromley
Games	5	6
Goals scored a game	0.80	1.17
Goals conceded a game	1.60	2.67
Both teams scored	20%	67%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	67%
Clean sheets	20%	17%
Corners won / conceded	4.8 / 4.6	3.3 / 8.3
Yellow cards a game	2.6	2.2
xG for / against	1.20 / 1.91	0.95 / 2.16

Best UK odds with fair prices


Match result	Wigan win	45%	5/4	5/6 BetVictor	-16.1%
	Draw	28%	5/2	5/2 Betfred	+0.6%
	Bromley win	27%	11/4	10/3 bet365	+14.3%
Double chance	Wigan or draw	73%	4/11
	Bromley or draw	55%	4/5
Draw no bet	Wigan	62%	8/13
	Bromley	38%	13/8
Both teams to score	Yes	51%	evens
	No	49%	21/20
Goals	Over 1.5	72%	2/5
	Over 2.5	46%	6/5	5/6 bet365	-15.7%
	Under 2.5	54%	5/6	evens bet365	+8.8%
	Over 3.5	24%	3/1
Result and BTTS	Wigan and yes	19%	4/1
	Draw and yes	19%	9/2
	Bromley and yes	12%	7/1
Result and goals	Wigan and over 2.5	25%	3/1
	Bromley and over 2.5	15%	6/1
	Wigan and under 2.5	20%	4/1
	Bromley and under 2.5	13%	7/1
Half time / full time	Wigan / Wigan	27%	11/4
	Draw / Draw	17%	5/1
	Draw / Wigan	16%	5/1
	Bromley / Bromley	16%	11/2
Corners	Over 9.5	58%	8/11
	Over 10.5	47%	11/10
Cards	Over 3.5	42%	11/8
	Over 4.5	26%	11/4

Match result

Wigan win

45%

5/4

5/6 BetVictor

-16.1%

Draw

28%

5/2

5/2 Betfred

+0.6%

Bromley win

27%

11/4

10/3 bet365

+14.3%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

73%

4/11

Bromley or draw

55%

4/5

Draw no bet

Wigan

62%

8/13

Bromley

38%

13/8

Both teams to score

Yes

51%

evens

49%

21/20

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

2/5

Over 2.5

46%

6/5

5/6 bet365

-15.7%

Under 2.5

54%

5/6

evens bet365

+8.8%

Over 3.5

24%

3/1

Result and BTTS

Wigan and yes

19%

4/1

Draw and yes

19%

9/2

Bromley and yes

12%

7/1

Result and goals

Wigan and over 2.5

25%

3/1

Bromley and over 2.5

15%

6/1

Wigan and under 2.5

20%

4/1

Bromley and under 2.5

13%

7/1

Half time / full time

Wigan / Wigan

27%

11/4

Draw / Draw

17%

5/1

Draw / Wigan

16%

5/1

Bromley / Bromley

16%

11/2

Corners

Over 9.5

58%

8/11

Over 10.5

47%

11/10

Cards

Over 3.5

42%

11/8

Over 4.5

26%

11/4

Our fair price works out as 1 divided by the chance we give We take bookmaker prices from football-data.co.uk. It lists match odds and only over/under 2.5. Edge marks the cases where we have both figures.

Starting team line-ups

Wigan 5-3-2

Whitworth, Joseph.GK
Barrett, Connor.DEF
K'Marni MillerDEF
Burns, Finley.DEF
Carragher, James.DEF
Weir, Jensen.DEF
Power, Max.MID
Gray, Charlie.MID
Saydee, Christian.FWD
Burrowes, Bradley.FWD
Walsh, Reggie.MID

Bromley 4-1-4-1

Grant SmithGK
Ifill, Markus.DEF
Pinnock, Mitchell.DEF
Saville, George.MID
Jackson, Adam.DEF
Grant, Kamarl.DEF
Jones, Jodi.MID
Hondermarck, William.MID
Cheek, Michael.FWD
Whitely, Corey.MID
Miller, Mickel.MID

ESPN supplied the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.

Chances for the correct score

Each score's chance in %, with Wigan goals down the side and Bromley goals across
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9.0	8.0	4.6	1.6	0.4	0.1
1	11.0	13.3	6.7	2.4	0.6	0.1
2	8.5	9.0	4.8	1.7	0.5	0.1
3	4.1	4.3	2.3	0.8	0.2	0.0
4	1.5	1.5	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
5	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Scoring times

For Wigan, 15 games; Bromley, 14 games. This season's goals scored by minute come from ESPN match events.

Corners plus cards

Corners expected: 10.5 overall, with Wigan 6.0 and Bromley 4.5 against a league 10.4
Yellow cards expected: 3.4 (league 3.7, referee adjusted).

Latest form

Wigan Athletic

Wigan, last 6
			Result
Tue 27 Oct	at Leicester	0-3	L
Sat 24 Oct	at Huddersfield	1-2	L
Tue 20 Oct	at Oxford	1-2	L
Sat 17 Oct	v Reading	1-0	W
Sat 10 Oct	at Stevenage	0-1	L
Sat 19 Sep	v Wycombe	0-1	L

Wigan's score comes first.

Bromley

Bromley's 6 most recent
			Result
Tue 27 Oct	at Milton Keynes Dons	1-4	L
Sat 24 Oct	v Peterborough	1-1	D
Tue 20 Oct	v Leicester	0-4	L
Sat 17 Oct	at Stockport	0-1	L
Sat 10 Oct	at Mansfield	1-2	L
Sat 19 Sep	v Huddersfield	2-1	W