Notts County vs Stevenage prediction
What our analysis says
With 14 points from 12 games, Notts County sit 17th in the League One. Stevenage sit 16th with 16 points from 12 games, 2 points ahead.
From their last 6 matches, Notts County recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, scoring 6 goals and conceding 7. From their last 6, Stevenage took 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 6.
So far this season, both teams scored in 58% of Notts County games, and 25% of matches finished above 2.5 goals. Stevenage's corresponding figures are 50% and 50%. Expected goals per match: Notts County 1.11, with 1.26 allowed; Stevenage 1.09, with 1.14 allowed.
A Notts County win is what the model finds likeliest, at 39%, with the draw on 31% and Stevenage 31%. That call rests on expected goals: 1.18 for Notts County, 1.02 for Stevenage.
Score prediction: County 1-0 Stevenage, with Notts County taking it. At 14.1%, 1-1 stands alone as the most likely exact score. Inside the result we lean toward, the likeliest score is 1-0.
Stats for Notts County v Stevenage
| Per game |  Notts County |  Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.0 / 6.0 | 3.6 / 8.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.4 | 1.0 |
| xG for / against | 0.95 / 1.33 | 1.19 / 1.38 |
| Per game | Notts County | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.08 | 1.42 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.2 / 5.4 | 3.9 / 6.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.11 / 1.26 | 1.09 / 1.14 |
| Per game | Notts County | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 3.7 | 2.7 / 5.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.2 | 1.7 |
| xG for / against | 1.40 / 0.90 | 1.10 / 1.32 |
Market prices that are fair
| Match result | Notts County win | 39% | 8/5 |
| Draw | 31% | 9/4 | |
| Stevenage win | 31% | 9/4 | |
| Double chance | Notts County or draw | 69% | 4/9 |
| Stevenage or draw | 61% | 8/13 | |
| Draw no bet | Notts County | 56% | 4/5 |
| Stevenage | 44% | 5/4 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 6/5 |
| No | 55% | 5/6 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 65% | 8/15 |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 13/8 | |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 8/13 | |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Result and BTTS | Notts County and yes | 14% | 6/1 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Stevenage and yes | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Result and goals | Notts County and over 2.5 | 19% | 9/2 |
| Stevenage and over 2.5 | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Notts County and under 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Stevenage and under 2.5 | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Notts County / Notts County | 23% | 17/5 |
| Draw / Draw | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Stevenage / Stevenage | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Notts County | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 43% | 13/10 |
| Over 10.5 | 33% | 2/1 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 49% | 21/20 |
| Over 4.5 | 32% | 21/10 |
We divide 1 by our chance to set a fair price.
Line-ups we predict
Notts County 3-4-1-2
- Belshaw, James.GK
- Tsaroulla, Nicholas.MID
- Samuels-Smith, Ishé.MID
- Bedeau, Jacob.DEF
- McDonald, Rod.DEF
- Ness, Lucas.DEF
- Finneran, Rory.MID
- Robertson, Scott.MID
- Grant, Conor.MID
- Smyth, Luka.FWD
- Kanu, Daniel.FWD
They started at Mansfield on Sat 31 Oct.
Stevenage 4-4-1-1
- Setford, Tommy.GK
- Vancooten, Terence.DEF
- Earley, Saxon.DEF
- Thompson, Louis.MID
- Casey, Kaelan.DEF
- Piergianni, Carl.DEF
- Sanderson, Oliver.MID
- Phillips, Daniel.MID
- Magennis, Josh.FWD
- Broggio, Ben.FWD
- Patterson, Phoenix.MID
They started at Leicester on Sat 31 Oct.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 14.1 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the teams score
Games played: Notts County, 13; Stevenage, 14.
Corners and card counts
- 9.2corners expected (Notts County 4.8, Stevenage 4.4; league 10.4)
- A total of 3.7 yellow cards is expected (league 3.7).
Form in recent games
Notts County
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Mansfield | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Stockport | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Sheffield Wednesday | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Wycombe | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Oxford | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Reading | 0-2 | L |
Notts County is listed first in the scores.
Stevenage
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Leicester | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Milton Keynes Dons | 0-1 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Plymouth | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Bradford | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Wigan | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Leyton Orient | 0-1 | L |
Stevenage comes first in the scores.
League One table
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 |  Leyton Orient | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | +5 | 17 |
| 15 |  Burton Albion | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 16 | Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 | Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 |  AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 |  Blackpool | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November