Liverpool vs AFC Bournemouth prediction
The analysis we put together
This Carabao Cup match is between two Premier League sides. Both clubs are rated on the same scale, which draws on league games and earlier cup ties.
Across their last 6, Liverpool won 3, lost 2 and drew 1, with 6 scored and 6 conceded. In their last 6, Bournemouth won 4, lost 2 and drew 0, scoring 11 and conceding 6.
This season, 33% of Liverpool matches saw both teams score, and 44% had over 2.5 goals. Bournemouth's figures are 56% and 56%. Liverpool's expected goals sit at 1.46 a game, with 1.17 allowed; Bournemouth sit at 1.75, allowing 1.12.
Our results cover 5 meetings from August 2024 onwards, with 4 Liverpool wins, 1 Bournemouth win and 0 draws. The most recent meeting, on Sunday 20 September 2026, ended Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool.
Scott, a regular starter this season, is expected to be missing for Bournemouth.
A Liverpool win comes out as the model's likeliest result at 43%, the draw 26% and Bournemouth 31%, working from 1.62 expected goals for Liverpool, 1.35 for Bournemouth.
Liverpool 2-1 AFC Bournemouth is our forecast. At 11.9%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score; within the outcome we favor, 2-1 tops the list.
Stats for Liverpool v Bournemouth
| Per game |  Liverpool |  Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 80% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.2 / 3.8 | 5.0 / 3.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| xG for / against | 1.21 / 1.11 | 2.26 / 0.76 |
| Per game | Liverpool | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.22 | 1.56 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.44 |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 4.1 | 4.6 / 4.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| xG for / against | 1.46 / 1.17 | 1.75 / 1.12 |
| Per game | Liverpool | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.80 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.20 | 2.25 |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 5.0 | 4.2 / 4.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| xG for / against | 1.24 / 1.31 | 1.38 / 1.33 |
| Per game | Liverpool | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.2 / 5.0 | 5.0 / 5.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.65 / 0.79 | 0.79 / 1.65 |
Market fair prices
| Match result | Liverpool win | 43% | 13/10 |
| Draw | 26% | 29/10 | |
| Bournemouth win | 31% | 11/5 | |
| Double chance | Liverpool or draw | 69% | 4/9 |
| Bournemouth or draw | 57% | 8/11 | |
| Draw no bet | Liverpool | 58% | 8/11 |
| Bournemouth | 42% | 11/8 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 4/6 |
| No | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 80% | 1/4 |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 8/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 13/10 | |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 15/8 | |
| Result and BTTS | Liverpool and yes | 23% | 10/3 |
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Bournemouth and yes | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Result and goals | Liverpool and over 2.5 | 29% | 5/2 |
| Bournemouth and over 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Liverpool and under 2.5 | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Bournemouth and under 2.5 | 11% | 8/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Liverpool / Liverpool | 26% | 14/5 |
| Bournemouth / Bournemouth | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Liverpool | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 13/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 52% | 10/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 41% | 7/5 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 58% | 8/11 |
| Over 4.5 | 41% | 7/5 |
A fair price comes from dividing 1 by our chance.
Chances for goalscorers and cards
| Liverpool | Isak FWD | 6 | 4.3 | 45% | 6/5 | 12% |
| Liverpool | Szoboszlai MID | 1 | 1.5 | 24% | 16/5 | 15% |
| Liverpool | Gakpo MID | 1 | 1.2 | 20% | 4/1 | 0% |
| Liverpool | Wirtz MID | 0 | 1.5 | 17% | 5/1 | 11% |
| Bournemouth | Tavernier MID | 5 | 3.7 | 27% | 11/4 | 28% |
| Bournemouth | Evanilson FWD | 4 | 3.6 | 26% | 14/5 | 11% |
| Bournemouth | Rayan MID | 1 | 2.5 | 19% | 4/1 | 0% |
| Bournemouth | Kluivert MID | 1 | 1.4 | 16% | 5/1 | 15% |
We list only players who are at least 75% likely to play.
Line-ups we predict
Liverpool 4-2-3-1
- A.BeckerGK · 9 starts
- VirgilDEF · 9 starts
- JacquetDEF · 9 starts
- KerkezDEF · 8 starts
- AraujoDEF · 7 starts
- WirtzMID · 9 starts
- Mac AllisterMID · 7 starts
- GakpoMID · 6 starts
- BarcolaMID · 6 starts
- SzoboszlaiMID · 6 starts
- IsakFWD · 8 starts
Hamstring injury: Frimpong is out or doubtful.
Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
- PetrovićGK · 9 starts
- HillDEF · 9 starts
- SilvaDEF · 9 starts
- TruffertDEF · 9 starts
- SmithDEF · 9 starts
- RayanMID · 9 starts
- TavernierMID · 9 starts
- AdamsMID · 7 starts
- KluivertMID · 6 starts
- CookMID · 4 starts
- EvanilsonFWD · 9 starts
Doubtful or out: Scott (Thigh injury)
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
When each side scores
Liverpool, 11 games and Bournemouth, 11 games.
Corners plus cards
- Corners expected come to 9.9, with the league at 9.9 (Liverpool 5.4, Bournemouth 4.5).
- Yellow cards expected 4.2 (league 3.8).
Latest form
Liverpool
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 1 Nov | v Arsenal | 0-1 | L |
| Wed 28 Oct | v Chelsea | 1-1 | D |
| Sun 25 Oct | v Brighton | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Brentford | 2-1 | W |
| Sun 11 Oct | v Man City | 0-3 | L |
| Sun 20 Sep | at Bournemouth | 1-0 | W |
Liverpool scores come first.
AFC Bournemouth
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Leeds | 2-0 | W |
| Wed 28 Oct | v Aston Villa | 3-0 | W |
| Sun 25 Oct | at Man United | 3-0 | W |
| Sun 18 Oct | v Sunderland | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Chelsea | 1-5 | L |
| Sun 20 Sep | v Liverpool | 0-1 | L |
Bournemouth scores come first.
Head to head
| Sun 20 Sep 2026 | Premier League | Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool | 0-0 | 6 |
| Sat 24 Jan 2026 | Premier League | Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool | 2-1 | 14 |
| Fri 15 Aug 2025 | Premier League | Liverpool 4-2 Bournemouth | 1-0 | 13 |
| Sat 1 Feb 2025 | Premier League | Bournemouth 0-2 Liverpool | 0-1 | 6 |
| Sat 21 Sep 2024 | Premier League | Liverpool 3-0 Bournemouth | 3-0 | 12 |