Crystal Palace vs Sunderland prediction
The analysis we provide
Two Premier League sides meet in this Carabao Cup tie. Both clubs get rated by the model on a single scale built from earlier cup ties and league games
Across their last 6, Palace recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses. They scored 4 and conceded 10. Sunderland's last 6 saw 1 win, 1 draw and 4 defeats, with 7 scored and 14 against.
For Palace this season, 44% of games had both teams score and 56% had over 2.5 goals. Sunderland's figures were 44% and 33%. Palace's expected goals per match are 1.24, with 2.14 allowed. Sunderland's figures are 1.47 created and 1.75 allowed.
Our results show 2 meetings since August 2024. Palace recorded 0 wins, Sunderland took 1 and 1 was level. Saturday 17 January 2026 saw Sunderland 2-1 Crystal Palace in the latest meeting.
Ballard, a regular starter this season, is expected to be missing for Sunderland.
With expected goals of 1.15 for Sunderland and 1.45 for Palace, the model puts a Palace win at 43%. The draw is 28%, and Sunderland 29%.
Score prediction: Palace 1-0 Sunderland. Of all exact scores, 1-1 is the single most likely at 13.1%. Inside the result we favor, 1-0 ranks highest.
Stats for Palace v Sunderland
| Per game |  Palace |  Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.2 / 9.8 | 4.5 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.23 / 2.44 | 0.86 / 1.77 |
| Per game | Palace | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 0.78 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.33 | 1.89 |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 22% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.2 / 7.0 | 4.2 / 4.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.24 / 2.14 | 1.47 / 1.75 |
| Per game | Palace | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.50 | 2.60 |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 5.2 | 4.0 / 4.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| xG for / against | 1.32 / 2.04 | 1.57 / 2.15 |
| Per game | Palace | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.5 / 3.0 | 3.0 / 4.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Palace win | 43% | 13/10 |
| Draw | 28% | 13/5 | |
| Sunderland win | 29% | 12/5 | |
| Double chance | Palace or draw | 71% | 2/5 |
| Sunderland or draw | 57% | 8/11 | |
| Draw no bet | Palace | 60% | 4/6 |
| Sunderland | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 10/11 |
| No | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 74% | 4/11 |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 21/20 | |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 10/11 | |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 14/5 | |
| Result and BTTS | Palace and yes | 20% | 4/1 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Sunderland and yes | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Result and goals | Palace and over 2.5 | 25% | 29/10 |
| Sunderland and over 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Palace and under 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Sunderland and under 2.5 | 13% | 7/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Palace / Palace | 26% | 14/5 |
| Sunderland / Sunderland | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Palace | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 51% | 10/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 47% | 11/10 |
| Over 4.5 | 31% | 9/4 |
Fair price = our chance divided into 1.
Scorer and card chances
| Palace | Strand Larsen FWD | 1 | 1.4 | 28% | 13/5 | 0% |
| Palace | Khalaili DEF | 1 | 1.2 | 17% | 9/2 | 23% |
| Palace | Yeremy MID | 1 | 1.0 | 13% | 13/2 | 31% |
| Palace | Kamada MID | 1 | 0.9 | 11% | 15/2 | 20% |
| Sunderland | Brobbey FWD | 3 | 3.5 | 32% | 21/10 | 13% |
| Sunderland | E.Le Fée MID | 2 | 3.0 | 23% | 10/3 | 0% |
| Sunderland | Mukiele DEF | 0 | 0.8 | 9% | 10/1 | 13% |
| Sunderland | O'Nien DEF | 0 | 0.3 | 8% | 11/1 | 28% |
We list only players who are at least 75% likely to play.
Line-up predictions
Palace 4-4-2
- BenitezGK · 5 starts
- RichardsDEF · 9 starts
- MitchellDEF · 9 starts
- CanvotDEF · 8 starts
- KhalailiDEF · 7 starts
- WhartonMID · 9 starts
- KamadaMID · 9 starts
- YeremyMID · 8 starts
- TimberMID · 5 starts, 75% to play
- Strand LarsenFWD · 5 starts, 75% to play
- NketiahFWD · 3 starts
Tomiyasu (Calf injury) is out or doubtful
Sunderland 4-2-3-1
- RoefsGK · 9 starts
- ReinildoDEF · 8 starts
- MukieleDEF · 7 starts, 75% to play
- HumeDEF · 6 starts
- MeunierDEF · 6 starts
- XhakaMID · 9 starts
- E.Le FéeMID · 9 starts
- SadikiMID · 9 starts
- N.AnguloMID · 8 starts
- RiggMID · 3 starts
- BrobbeyFWD · 7 starts
Ballard is out or doubtful (Hamstring injury); Alderete (Suspended until 21 Nov)
Exact score probabilities
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Palace: 11 games. For Sunderland, 11 games.
Cards and corners
- We expect 9.9 corners, with Palace 4.5, Sunderland 5.4 and the league at 9.9.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.6 (league 3.8).
Latest form
Crystal Palace
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Tottenham | 0-2 | L |
| Wed 28 Oct | at Fulham | 1-0 | W |
| Sun 25 Oct | v Newcastle | 0-2 | L |
| Sun 18 Oct | at Brighton | 0-5 | L |
| Sun 11 Oct | v Nott'm Forest | 3-1 | W |
| Sun 20 Sep | at Leeds | 0-0 | D |
Palace comes first in the scores.
Sunderland
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Coventry | 1-3 | L |
| Wed 28 Oct | v Brentford | 3-2 | W |
| Sun 25 Oct | v Leeds | 0-0 | D |
| Sun 18 Oct | at Bournemouth | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Brighton | 0-2 | L |
| Sun 20 Sep | at Man City | 3-5 | L |
Sunderland comes first in the scores.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 17 Jan 2026 | Premier League | Sunderland 2-1 Crystal Palace | 1-1 | 7 |
| Sat 13 Sep 2025 | Premier League | Crystal Palace 0-0 Sunderland | 0-0 | 8 |