Everton vs Newcastle United prediction
The model's view of the match
Two Premier League sides meet here in a Carabao Cup tie. The model puts both clubs on a single scale based on league games and earlier cup ties.
Everton's last 6 brought 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 4 scored and 6 conceded. Of their last 6 games, Newcastle took 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 10.
Of Everton's matches this season, 38% featured both teams scoring and 25% finished above 2.5 goals. Newcastle stands at 62% and 62%. Everton create 1.26 expected goals a game and allow 1.46, while Newcastle sit at 1.14 created and 1.69 allowed.
Our results include 4 meetings since August 2024: 2 Everton wins, 1 Newcastle win and 1 draw. The most recent meeting, played on Saturday 28 February 2026, ended Newcastle 2-3 Everton.
The model sees an Everton win as the likeliest result at 48%. It gives the draw 26% and Newcastle 26%, with 1.65 expected goals for Everton and 1.17 for Newcastle.
Our predicted score is Everton 2-1 Newcastle United. At 12.2%, 1-1 is the single likeliest exact score; inside the result we lean to, 2-1 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Everton v Newcastle
| Per game |  Everton |  Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.5 / 7.5 | 4.6 / 5.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.24 / 1.55 | 1.21 / 1.62 |
| Per game | Everton | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.12 | 1.75 |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.9 / 6.0 | 4.5 / 5.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.26 / 1.46 | 1.14 / 1.69 |
| Per game | Everton | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.2 / 3.5 | 5.5 / 5.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.20 / 1.39 | 1.10 / 1.49 |
| Per game | Everton | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.2 / 9.0 | 9.0 / 3.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Everton win | 48% | 11/10 |
| Draw | 26% | 3/1 | |
| Newcastle win | 26% | 11/4 | |
| Double chance | Everton or draw | 74% | 4/11 |
| Newcastle or draw | 52% | 10/11 | |
| Draw no bet | Everton | 65% | 8/15 |
| Newcastle | 35% | 15/8 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 4/5 |
| No | 44% | 5/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 78% | 2/7 |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 5/6 | |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 9/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Everton and yes | 24% | 10/3 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Newcastle and yes | 14% | 13/2 | |
| Result and goals | Everton and over 2.5 | 31% | 9/4 |
| Newcastle and over 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Everton and under 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Newcastle and under 2.5 | 10% | 17/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Everton / Everton | 30% | 5/2 |
| Draw / Everton | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Newcastle / Newcastle | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 48% | 21/20 |
| Over 10.5 | 38% | 13/8 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 58% | 8/11 |
| Over 4.5 | 41% | 6/4 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed doesn't include UK bookmaker prices for this match (football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition).
Chances for goalscorers and cards
| Everton | Barry FWD | 4 | 6.4 | 57% | 8/11 | 0% |
| Everton | Johnson MID | 0 | 1.1 | 23% | 10/3 | 33% |
| Everton | Dewsbury-Hall MID | 2 | 1.6 | 19% | 4/1 | 11% |
| Everton | Armstrong MID | 0 | 0.8 | 10% | 17/2 | 28% |
| Newcastle | Wissa FWD | 1 | 3.4 | 38% | 13/8 | 34% |
| Newcastle | Elanga MID | 2 | 0.8 | 18% | 9/2 | 22% |
| Newcastle | Willock MID | 2 | 1.3 | 17% | 5/1 | 0% |
| Newcastle | Barnes MID | 2 | 1.5 | 16% | 11/2 | 0% |
Each chance is worked out by combining the Fantasy Premier League feed's player goals, xG, minutes and bookings with our team goal expectation. We list only players who are at least 75% likely to play.
The players set to start
Everton 4-2-3-1
- Pickford, Jordan.GK
- Röhl, Merlin.DEF
- Mykolenko, Vitaliy.DEF
- Garner, James.MID
- Tarkowski, James.DEF
- O'Brien, Jake.DEF
- Dibling, Tyler.MID
- Hackney, Hayden.MID
- Barry, Thierno.FWD
- Dewsbury-Hall, Kiernan.MID
- George, Tyrique.MID
Newcastle 4-2-3-1
- Hornícek, Lukás.GK
- Dedic, Amar.DEF
- Hall, Lewis.DEF
- González, Nico.MID
- Schär, Fabian.DEF
- Burn, Dan.DEF
- Murphy, Jacob.MID
- Ramsey, Jacob.MID
- Osula, William.FWD
- Willock, Joe.MID
- Barnes, Harvey.MID
The starting elevens come from ESPN and were read Wednesday 4 November, 09:12.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Games covered: Everton, 12 games. Newcastle, 12 games as well. This season's goals by minute come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- 9.6corners expected in all (Everton 4.8, Newcastle 4.9; the league figure is 9.9)
- Yellow cards: 4.2expected (league 3.8)
Teams' recent form
Everton
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | at Arsenal | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Chelsea | 0-2 | L |
| Sun 11 Oct | at Hull | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Ipswich | 1-0 | W |
| Wed 16 Sep | v Wolves | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 12 Sep | at Tottenham | 0-0 | D |
Everton comes first in the scorelines.
Newcastle United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct | at Crystal Palace | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Aston Villa | 0-1 | L |
| Mon 12 Oct | at Coventry | 1-4 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Hull | 2-1 | W |
| Mon 14 Sep | at Leeds | 1-4 | L |
| Tue 8 Sep | at Millwall | 1-0 | W |
Newcastle comes first in the scorelines.
Head to head
| Sat 28 Feb 2026 | Premier League | Newcastle 2-3 Everton | 1-2 | 9 |
| Sat 29 Nov 2025 | Premier League | Everton 1-4 Newcastle | 0-3 | 15 |
| Sun 25 May 2025 | Premier League | Newcastle 0-1 Everton | 0-0 | 15 |
| Sat 5 Oct 2024 | Premier League | Everton 0-0 Newcastle | 0-0 | 10 |